Well, “Chekhov’s MIC” finally went into action yesterday, attacking targets across Iran, starting from the early hours of the morning. After weeks of build-up and nail-biting tension, Angry Short Trump finally ordered the bombers and missiles in to conduct supposedly “surgical” strikes against the Iranian government.

It must be said that, as of this writing, the American campaign has indeed met with some success. The most noteworthy casualty is, of course, the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – who as far as I can tell was not actually a relative of the original Grand Chief Beardy Todger of Persia, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei (note the different last name – they were NOT relatives, but merely student and teacher, respectively). The strike that killed him, also took out members of his immediate family – including a granddaughter who was less than 18 months old.

This sort of sets the tone for what the combined Israeli-US strike has achieved thus far, really. It has decapitated a few of the heads of the Iranian military-political apparatus, and it has killed over 160 schoolgirls – par for the course for the US military, which seems to excel at bombing and killing children and innocents, but seems rather worse at actually achieving concrete military objectives.

The difference between the original Iranian response during the June 2025 “Twelve-Day War”, and the current hostilities, is remarkable. Back then, it took the Persians almost 12 hours to get organised, recover from the initial shock of the attacks, and get their air defences and chain of command working again. After that, as the days dragged on, Iran very clearly gained the upper hand against Israel, to the point where Iranian ballistic and hypersonic missiles had simply exhausted the Israeli air defences, while Israeli attacks became ever less effective. By the last few days of that war, it seemed as though Iranian attacks were hitting Israeli targets practically at will.

This time, Iran has expanded its range of targets considerably, and is now attacking both US bases and Arab civilian infrastructure across the Middle East. American bases in Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, and even Cyprus have all come under Iranian missile attack. Initial reports as to the effectiveness of the strikes are mixed, to say the least – both sides are waging a ferocious propaganda war against each other, and discerning the truth is extremely difficult.

Nonetheless, it is difficult to escape the conclusion that, provided the Iranian regime survives the next few days, Iran will slowly come out on top.

The ferocity of American airstrikes against Iran is something to behold. The Ameribros appear to have thrown everything at Iran, including the kitchen sink, to see what sticks. There have even been reports that American B-2 bombers have flown another one of their epic ultra-long-distance missions to bomb Iran’s nuclear enrichment and assembly facilities.

Iran, for its part, appears to have taken an “escalate to de-escalate” strategy – targeting everything associated with FUSA around it, launching attacks on its Arab neighbours. This is likely to have mixed outcomes at best, given that those same Arab neighbours, especially the Saudis, were working toward some kind of rapprochement and detente with Iran for years. But it now appears that the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has given the private go-ahead for Saudi strikes against Iran, so who knows.

This risks devolving rapidly into a wider regional war, with serious sectarian divisions – all the Sunni Arab nations on one side, up against the Shi’a Persians on the other. And that is before we get to the fact that there are multiple nations in the region that have significant Shi’a populations, ruled over by unpopular Sunni so-called “royal” houses.

In the short term, this conflict will severely shock oil markets and stress an already overburdened global economy. I have seen conflicting reports about whether or not the Straits of Hormuz have been closed, but it appears that, as of this writing, they have been effectively shut, with tankers dropping anchor in the seas around Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE. At least one tanker has been attacked by Iranian drones, and at least one oil platform off the coast of the UAE has been struck by Iranian Shahed drones. This all translates into a major oil shock that will hit the markets, starting tomorrow.

Drumpf’s idiotic war of choice will lead almost immediately to US$100/bbl oil, or something close to it, and things could peak at US$150 before long. That will double or triple gasoline prices in the US, which will jack up inflation across basic consumer staples almost instantly.

This means Drumpf and the neoclowns who goaded him into this war, are desperate for a win. What that win looks like, is perhaps anyone’s guess, because it is completely unclear what the actual objectives of this strike are. If the goal was regime change, that almost certainly will not happen. The killing of the Ayatollah appears to have significantly consolidated Iranian society and galvanised their patriotism, and has enraged the Shi’a Muslim world. So the best that the FUSA can hope for, is that the Iranians will seek out a peace that codifies its commitment never to seek out a nuclear weapon.

Except… it turns out that was already what Iran agreed to do, as of Friday.

So what, exactly, are the terms of “victory” for either side?

This, again, is unclear.

For the US, “victory” now probably looks like further decapitation strikes that Drumpf can majestically declare have achieved his “core objective” of destabilising the Iranian regime. He cannot afford to allow this war to drag on for more than a few weeks, if even that, because Iranian missile attacks are clearly showing the total impotence of US AD systems in the Middle East and Israel.

Speaking of Israel, its victory condition is very different. Victory for it means the destruction of Iran’s government and the severe weakening of its state. This has always been the Israeli objective in general. To maximise its own survival, the Israeli government – regardless of who is in power – has always sought to undermine and destroy the Arab and Persian states around it, leaving behind weak, easily manipulated, fractured political bodies that it can bend to its will. Even now, Israeli politicians – starting with former PM Naftali Bennett – are talking about turning Turkey into the new Iran, which is a special kind of insanity.

As for Iran… long-term victory is uncertain at best. If the regime simply survives for another few weeks, then that is probably “good enough”. But it is clear that there is no way for it to continue fighting a long war against the US. Although it can outlast the US easily enough – especially with the not-so-tacit help it is clearly receiving from Russia and China – the end result will be a permanent state of heightened tensions between two adversaries that very much want each other destroyed.

And all of this death and destruction is taking place for… what, exactly? So that the Jews in the Middle East can feel safe?

Already, at least three American servicemen have been killed. Several hundred Iranians have died – most of them civilians. Dozens of foreign and Arab civilians have died and been injured. Hundreds of thousands are stranded in the Middle East, unable to get away from the regional cataclysm. Oil prices are set to explode upwards, stressing out already overburdened economies in the West.

And we are all expected to suffer, so that the Jews can feel safe?

This is nonsense and stupidity of the absolute worst kind. No one should die for Israel’s sake, unless Israelis themselves decide to do it. But the FUSA has become such a puppet of the Israeli government, that it seems totally unable to do anything unless its Jewish masters in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem tell them to do it.

No wonder Israel has become so universally hated by so many. Even those like me, who have been to Israel, and rather like the country, are absolutely fed up of the Jews and their shenanigans. If Israel wants to commit suicide, then that is its business – but it has no right to take the rest of us with it.

If the parties involved had the sense God gave a honey badger, they would seek to de-escalate this senseless war immediately, and stop the killing, on all sides. But the FUSA is led by crazed neoclowns in thrall to the Jews in Israel, and the Persians are led by people whose pride and dignity has been wounded in the worst possible way.

Peace is only possible when one side or the other cries “Uncle” and gives up – and both sides know it.

Buckle up, boys – this ride is going to get much crazier, and much worse, over the next few days, as Iranian counterstrikes intensify, and the US gets more desperate for a quick victory.