Our good friend from Israel, The Male Brain, has very kindly translated another post by a retired Colonel from the Israeli Defence Forces, Tal Braun, for our education and enlightenment. What follows is an abridged and edited version of Col. Braun’s comments on the subject of the sheer folly and pointlessness of nation-building. Col. Braun essentially starts with a history of such endeavours, and asks whether “the savage wars of peace” can ever be won as part of “The White Man’s Burden“. Given the unfolding and ongoing disaster of Western retreat from Goathumpistan, it is well worth reading to understand how a truly strategic mind might consider such endeavours in the future. As always, I am most grateful to our friend for supplying this article and his accompanying thoughts.
History Proposes a Choice: The Taming of the Shrew, or the Shredding of the Tamed
by Col. Tal Braun, IDF (Ret), Translated by Dawn Pine
The history of Afghanistan is either a tragedy or an ongoing folly, in which different nations try to “tame” the population, but are forced to withdraw after being shredded by the Afghans. This is a warning sign to Israel [and perhaps other nations – TMB] facing similar strategic challenges. The concept of foreign power enforcing its will and trying to build a democratic nation based on western principles, and which can defend itself and prosper for years in the Middle East, has repeatedly backfired. That lesson may have been forgotten, due to COVID, which has seemed to cause Alzheimer’s in world leaders, policy makers and even among ordinary citizens who may suffer from the same symptoms.
The British Experience
On July 21, 1839, the British invasion force launched what will later be called “The First Anglo-Afghan War”. This has a premise known as “To be continued”.
August 1839 saw the British force conquer Kabul and crown the Shah Shujah Durrani, instead of Dost Mohammad Khan Barakzai, the latter of whom went into exile. Mohammad Khan came back the next year to try to regain his throne, but failed. He was captured by the Brits and was sent again to exile. His son, Sher Ali Khan, continued the fight against the Brits. It took less than 2 years for the British force to withdraw via a “secured corridor” [sounding familiar? – Didact]. On their way back to India, they were attacked by the locals [So much for counting on Arabs to keep their words – TMB]. The massacre was so brutal that only one man came back out of ~17,000 people (some were women and children). The British retaliated in August 1842 and after conquering Afghanistan again and punishing the land, they withdrew completely.
The Second Anglo-Afghan War took place in 1878-1880, and its entire motivation was fear of Imperial Russian intervention. Afghanistan became a puppet state, ruled by Abdur Rahman Khan under British permission. During his reign (1880-1901) the modern borders of Afghanistan were established by Britain and Russia.
Abdur Rahman Khan was replaced by his son Habibullah Khan, who was wise enough to keep the nation out of WW1, even though the Germans tried to raise Anti-Brit sentiment. He was assassinated in 1919, by family members who opposed the British protectorate. He was succeeded by his third son Amanullah Khan that during his time the third war broke out. Afghans were able to inflict harm on the Brits by raiding India. The war ended in the Anglo-Afghan Treaty which promised to stop outside intervention and allow the independence of the nation. That however, did not bring peace to Afghanistan, and of course when there is no peace there are also outside interventions.
The Russian Experience
One decade, 15,000 dead, 300 missing and ~50,000 injured not to mention the enormous amounts of critical hard currency lost, until the Soviet Union realised that it should withdraw and let the Taliban rebels rule the land.
First, the Russian tried to save the (highly unpopular) Communist regime from Islamic rebels, after Marxist reforms on marriage and land were not welcomed [turns out that Izzlamists hate godless atheistic Communism ALMOST as much as they hate personal hygiene and civilised behaviour – Didact]. The mostly Muslim population opposed it, and a lot of supporters were arrested, executed or exiled. What started with “military consulting” and weapons shipments rapidly became a full-scale invasion on December 25, 1979.
That struggle became a bleeding fight in which the Islamic rebels – the Mujahideen – fought a holy war, a Jihad, against the Commie infidels who ruled the nation with Soviet support. The rebels had the US on their side, and received expertise, training, and arms to fight what was then part of the Cold War.
The Mujahideen victory made many Muslims believe that Islam, the unquestionable faith and the warrior’s spirit won the holy war against the Atheist-Communist super power. If you will – mind over matter.
It should be noted that the USSR saw the Afghan mud as the Russian equivalent of Vietnam. The bloody price the troops paid for National-Ideological interests in foreign land – alien in every aspect – geographical, religious, cultural and so on.
It took a decade of intense conflict before the USSR withdrew from the blood-soaked land. It started in May 15 1988 and ended in February 15 1989. Remarkably, the Communist Afghan regime held up for 3 years till the 1992 civil war, during which it collapsed, bringing the Taliban to power.
The American Experience
Another decade passed until US initiated a new war in that land. “Operation Enduring Freedom”, which started following the 9-11 terror attacks, was dedicated to locating and destroying Al-Qaeda’s and its leader – the notorious Osama Bin-Laden. The Taliban regime was overthrown, making them go to their favourite tactic of bloody guerrilla warfare against the “infidel” coalition headed by the US. After the first stage of fighting Al-Qaeda, the second stage saw the coalition assisting the new Afghan regime to establish a government, based on democratic principles. That was done by strengthening, arming and training the army to handle its enemies including the Taliban.
After 20 years of muddling around, Biden announced on April 14 this year that the troops are coming home by 9-11: “It is time to end America’s longest war”. He also said that the withdraw will start on May 1, and that the withdraw will not be hasty and also would be coordinated with America’s allies.
The price that the US paid in 20 years of conflict went straight down the drain within a few days’ time. Allied losses amounted to 2,442 American soldiers, roughly 3,800 contractors, 1,144 NATO soldiers and about 70,000 Afghans, not to mention 20,666 injured and about US$2 TRILLION – and ALL of it was effectively lost within a single week.
Lessons and Food for Thought
Until the first Anglo-Afghan war, the British Empire was considered invincible. The Kabul withdrawal and the utter destruction of Elphinstone’s army shattered that image. Some claim that the Sepoy Mutiny of 1857 was partly due to Britain’s loss in Afghanistan.
The British Empire shrank after WWII. The further failed wars of the super powers in the 20th Century (US in Vietnam and USSR in Afghanistan) cracked each power’s aura of invincibility, and heralded more bad news to come.
Whatever lyrics, words and televised speeches the superpower in question uses to justify its retreat, actions speak louder than words, and so do especially the results after every round. Time passes differently in Asia, and only clear, determined and conclusive results count in the Arab world. To use a combat-sports metaphor, in this part of the world, there is no such thing as “Winning on Points” – only knockouts count.
Unlike the impatient Western culture, which seeks Blitzkrieg and rapid overwhelming of opponents, the Middle Easterners have patience (or as they call it, Sabar) and can wait even 20 years to achieve their goals. The Taliban in Afghanistan, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza has shown just that.
Now that the US has withdrawn from Afghanistan, the Taliban are receiving warm greetings from Muslim Jihadi organizations. Their success is a tailwind to all those organizations aspiration to redeem the Palestinian land and setting the same fate to the infidel Zionists (who are perceived the same as the Crusaders).
They see a clear line connecting the Taliban victory and the alleged victory of Hezbollah and Hamas over Israel, America’s toughest ally in the Middle East. The unconditional withdraw from Lebanon in 2000, as well as the one in 2005 from Gaza, gave them that notion.
Fact of the matter is, if one folds and withdraws unilaterally, without proving beyond the shadow of a doubt that the enemy was crushed and paid dearly in blood – then one will be seen as defeated and humiliated. That is the case even if one crowns oneself as an alleged victor in one’s own nation and to one’s own citizens, by default.
The “enlightened” Western culture, which characterises us (Israelis) for better or worse, does not carry much weight with the local people, tribes and clans in the area. Western attempts, so condescending and wrong, to engineer the Middle East, crown “educated and good” rulers from “the right universities”, to mould consciences and societies based on the doctrines, borders and Western policies (which are alien to local culture) are bound to evaporate sooner or later. The birth of Islam was based on the “Spreading by the Sword” – otherwise it would not have spread so fast.
People who don’t want to help themselves, cannot be helped [I say “Save those you can – read last rites to the damned” – TMB]. First and foremost, the Afghan people didn’t make a real effort to crush the Taliban, who were about several tens of thousands of determined people. Why would the Arabs of Judea and Samaria or Gaza be different, as their loyalty is either local or clan based? The thought that by going in to Gaza we can replace the regime with pro-Israeli peaceful locals is a mirage of people who saw too many 1960s movies [I’d say they smoked something from the same era – TMB]. Anyone who thinks that once a Palestinian state is established, alongside Israel, the historic conflict will end – should see a therapist about his delusions.
No man in his right mind believes that it is possible to tame and release wild animals such as lions, bears, alligators or sharks and trust them NOT to attack their trainer or people in general – it is better to understand that people cannot be forced into a way of life, perceptions and alien ideas which go against their beliefs, culture and nature. Expecting someone to change their skin from now till forever has not happened any time in history. We can learn from our own [Jewish – TMB] history in the Middle East, where the Arab pogrom [disorder with killing – TMB] started viciously and even before the state of Israel was established. That happened even though the Brits and French were here to enlighten the natives.
The Book of Genesis says:
11 And the Angel of the Lord said to her:
“Behold, you are with child,
— Genesis 16:11-12, NKJV
And you shall bear a son.
You shall call his name [d]Ishmael,
Because the Lord has heard your affliction.
12 He shall be a wild man;
His hand shall be against every man,
And every man’s hand against him.
And he shall dwell in the presence of all his brethren.”
Is there anything one can do to tame the wild – animal or human?
Conclusion and Recommendations
Israel is the Jewish state, and has the obligation to ensure its existence and safety of its people within defensible borders due to the rise of extremist Islam, both globally and locally. There is a Muslim continuum from China, via Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan and even in the Sinai Peninsula, in which those forces operate with the goal of eradicating Israel and abolishing Western culture. Their goal is an Islamic Caliphate under sharia law, established by the sword, literally.
The American retreat from Middle Eastern countries and abandonment of their allies to the barbarians necessitate Israel to base its national security on its own national interests. We should strengthen our historic pact with the Circassians and Druze, who tied their destiny to ours and keep on mending the relations with the South Lebanon Army people taking refuge in our country after the hasty withdrawal and resulting crisis of trust.
While the US is being criticised by all of its allies, because they show weakness, Israel must stand tougher. It is now that we need our spirit and strike disproportionately at our enemies – from wherever they attempt to harm us.
The US has sent a clear message to Middle Eastern allies as well as NATO ones. The lesson was a bloody tough one [literally – TMB]. The political consequences of the Afghan move will shape international relations, and not only with regards to the US. Basic trust has been shattered in the belief that allies will not be abandoned. The ongoing, repeated, lesson is never to say: “It can’t happen to me”. Israel must be ready for war, in which it will have to defend itself from neighbours and those who seek its downfall, those who covet the land and want to exterminate it. All based on strong belief and power.
To conclude, there are only 2 states of existence in the Middle East – Hunter or Prey, so have many nations learned throughout the years and with blood, sweat and tears to show for those lessons. In other words, one should be the hunter, until the vision of profit Isaiah comes to pass:
“The wolf also shall dwell with the lamb,
— Isaiah 11:6, NKJV
The leopard shall lie down with the young goat,
The calf and the young lion and the fatling together;
And a little child shall lead them.
Until that time comes, we should better be the wolf, leopard or lion.
The Male Brain Speaks
Since most of the readers are not Israelis, here is what can be learned from the article:
- The US is a declining power, and our host, Didact, will claim that they are doomed. Therefore the US can no longer be trusted internationally. This has been going on for some time.
- “If I am not for myself, who is for me?” (Avot 2:4) – One can only trust oneself. This is a lesson learned through history in blood.
Make sure you, your people or whatever group you are part of have the skill set and tools to survive. - “Overkill is underrated” (Hannibal Smith) – Don’t use proportional power when you were harmed. I’ll quote also Orson Scott Card in Ender’s Game: “I didn’t want to win this battle. I wanted to win all future ones”. The idea is to inflict pain on your enemy that he’ll lose the taste for it. This is what I repeatedly told my kids: “Don’t start a fight. If someone starts it with you and tries to harm you, kick their ass – hard. This will make them think twice next time they want to pick on someone”.
- “One stone thrown by an idiot to the well, cannot be taken out by 10 wise men”. The ancient Greeks considered hubris to be the worst sin. There is no point trying to do things that have a high certainty of failure (based on past experience). I get revenge, I even understand the Iraqi grab (to get their oil) but WTF was there in Afghanistan for the US? You got Bin Laden in 2009, claim victory and GET THE F**K OUT.
- Faith has way more power than people realise – It took ~50,000 people with great faith and spark in their eyes (the wrong one, but still) to take one country in 3 days. I’ll quote (everyone saying): “Be that guy”. Be the one with faith and determination. You’ll mostly get what you are going after.
Didact’s Thoughts
Once more, many thanks indeed to Dawn Pine for taking the time to scan through and translate this rather thought-provoking and insightful article from Col. Braun. I can only state that I agree entirely with both sets of conclusions.
Afghanistan is known as the graveyard of empires with very, very good reason. Alexander the Great couldn’t conquer it. Various Islamic Caliphates tried, and failed, to bring the goat-herders of the region under their control – they didn’t succeed either. The Brits tried, and failed. So did the Soviets. And now the Americans have tried too, and failed utterly.
Every single time, it ended in rout and disaster. Alexander’s army lost enormous numbers of men during their retreat back from western India, in part because of their venture through Afghanistan and the trek through the Gedrosian Desert in what is now modern-day Pakistan. The British nearly lost the Raj, the crown jewel in their empire. Defeat in Afghanistan shattered the Soviet military. We have yet to see the full consequences for the American military, but it is a virtual certainty that the US Army and Marines will not be able to bounce back easily from this defeat.
More than anything else, these campaigns have shown the utter folly of “nation-building” by a foreign power. It doesn’t work. The reality is that, in savage lands, you have to use savage tactics.
And the West is simply too Christian and too civilised to resort to what is actually necessary to win these kinds of wars.
Thank God for that. Seriously, fall to your knees and thank GOD that Christianity is a civilising force that posits as its supreme moral example the God-man who healed the sick, raised the dead, cast out daemons, and never killed a man – and indeed, restored those wounded by his followers to full health – before dying in absolute agony upon the Cross.
When that is the kind of man that your faith exalts and reveres, and puts forth as the exemplar of human behaviour, it tends to affect the way you think. Christianity has elevated Western nations out of the ancient habits of barbarous slaughter, and that is a VERY GOOD THING.
But it also means that Western nations are totally incapable of actually fighting these kinds of wars.
Look back to the days of the Romans, our ancient Western predecessors, and the other various ancient empires that predate Christianity. Do you know what the Romans did to barbarians who defied their will? They slaughtered them en masse, took the survivors as slaves, and wiped them out, root and branch, to serve as examples for anyone seeking to resist the might of Rome. Same with the Spartans. And the Macedonians. And the Mongols. The Huns too. Ditto the Goths, et cetera ad endless nauseam.
THAT is “pitiless war”, to reference a Kratmanism. (He actually got it from the erstwhile gormless goof who used to be President of the Frogs, back in the day.) It is the kind of war for which the soft and sappy West has absolutely no stomach. Even the Soviets, whom American propaganda films loved to project as the most evilest of evils who ever eviled, weren’t that inhumane.
By the way, if you’re in the mood for a rather good war movie about the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, check out The Beast:
A movie about Soviet war in Afghanistan, made by and starring Americans, which shows the Afghanis as heroes and courageous fighters. How times change, eh?
So how, if at all, can the West win these wars? It turns out that winning against a guerrilla force IS possible. But it requires a number of preconditions, precisely NONE of which the West can fulfil, in Afghanistan or anywhere else. I’ll expand upon that in a future post, because it merits substantive discussion. But overall, the West has neither the stomach, nor the skill, nor the capacity, to fight these kinds of wars.
One final point needs to be made about American (and Soviet, and British) defeats in Afghanistan, and elsewhere. You can make a pretty strong and convincing case that the Americans and NATO forces never actually LOST a single major battle against the muj in Afghanistan. If that sounds familiar, the exact same situation prevailed in Vietnam too – the US won every major battle against both the Viet Cong and the North Vietnamese Army.
There is considerable debate about whether or not Nixon’s Operation: LINEBACKER II – the relentless, brutal, systematic bombing campaign against targets deep inside North Vietnam – actually worked to bring the North to the negotiating table. Nixon himself apparently believed it achieved nothing. Yet the South Vietnamese government actually managed to hold on reasonably well after Nixon’s full withdrawal. The final collapse only happened because the Daemoncrats sold out the South Vietnamese government after Nixon’s resignation, and refused to continue funding the regime.
In other words, everything that we are seeing now in Afghanistan, has happened before. America has sold out its allies in the name of expediency. Those allies have then fallen like dominoes to hostile forces. And American leaders have then had to go in and clean up the mess, yet again.
Overall, the American Empire is on the horns of a dilemma that is entirely of its own making, and one which will likely hasten the eventual collapse and disintegration of what was once a force for good and civilisation in the world.
1 Comment
In light of this graveyard of empires, a classic quote from a classic movie:
“Ha-ha you fool! You’ve committed one of the classic blunders. The first is getting into a land war in Asia, the second…”
—The Princess Bride is a well of deep insight.
A good set of essays here, thank you for the post.