For those of you familiar with probabilities and distributions, there is a concept known as “tail risk”, which has to do with extreme events on either side of the density function. In simple English, this means, basically: “shit happens, but not often”. It seems the weather in large parts of the world obeys this most basic of principles quite clearly, because right after I left Russia, a massive cold snap descended across much of the country.
The temperature there is – and I’m not kidding – very nearly -25 Celsius in Moscow. (For those who insist on using those ridiculous Fahrenheit units, this comes to about -15, which I am given to understand is approximately the point at which most Americans give up on life. Unless they live in Minnesota, of course.)
It all just goes to show that we live in a world governed by probabilities and chance – though with an underlying structure to it, which requires both humility and brainpower to comprehend.
As I will be travelling shortly, all I can say for sure is, no matter where I go this winter, the weather will be unpleasant. It always is. Winter is not really my idea of a fun season – I have never much liked or cared for the cold, and I greatly dislike having to don multiple extra layers just to go for a short walk outside.
But, as we draw toward the end of February – though that seems admittedly rather far off at this stage – we can look forward to better weather and, hopefully, a warm spring. That is, assuming any of us are still left to enjoy it, of course.
The events unfolding in the Middle East do not exactly fill one with confidence. The Israelis, in their colossal hubris, look set to expand their current war against the Pali-Walis over into Lebanon, and possibly even into Egypt. If so, the current instability we are all seeing, will collapse straight into chaos, and there will be no coming back from it. As bad and crazy as things are now, another regional war in the Middle East – this time between Israel and everyone else – can only end in one way:
Nuclear annihilation.
Let us hope and pray no such madness comes to pass. A nuclear war cannot be “won” and must never, ever be fought – so let us ahope the Israelis are wise enough to pull back from the brink, lest their “Samson Option” go into effect at some point.
This is not idle speculation. Col. Douglas Macgregor revealed some very alarming points when he spoke to Judge Napolitano yesterday, and discussed some of the comments passed on to him by his friends who had just come back from visits to the Middle East itself:
As DA KERNEL pointed out, Middle Eastern elites are now openly talking about a future for the region that explicitly DOES NOT INCLUDE Israel – meaning, the Jewish state simply ceases to exist.
Is this what the Israelis want? If so, why the hell should anyone in the West support that kind of madness?
As for me, personally – well, I have been to Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa, Gan Shmuel, S’dot Yam, the Dead Sea, the Sea of Galilee, and the borders of the Golan Heights. I was very impressed by what I saw of Israel – I really loved it there and would be delighted to go back one day.
And I would really rather prefer to find the Jewish state still intact and standing, and its people still alive and well, when I do so. Let us hope the Israelis feel the same way. In other words, let us hope the Israelis understand “tail risk”, and take it as seriously as I do.
Right, that’s all the heavy stuff out of the way. This week’s lovely lady, the very first one of 2024 (for a Friday, that is), goes by the name of Denise Alex, and there is very little else to say about her beyond that – other than to observe her impressive sweater snowballs, and she might be an Eyetie.
And y’all know how we feel about Eyeties around here.
Happy Friday, lads. By the time I poast again, I will have arrived back home, probably rather jet-lagged and definitely very tired, but I hope to get my New Year’s podcast done by tomorrow nonetheless.
2 Comments
Nothing ridiculous about the Fahrenheit system. Just as the English system of weights and measures is superior to the metric system for everyday use, so is Fahrenheit a more human, useful system in the real world.
hush.
.
you’ll get him all riled up and he’ll start complaining about sugar in his tea again.