Yes, I know this one is late (again). No, I don’t really have an excuse (again) – though, admittedly, I was travelling for business (again) and had to spend a couple of hours on a train full of drunken idiots (again). Amazingly, the train itself managed the rare feat of leaving on time, but arriving late.
It’s all part and parcel of holding a ringside seat as the West declines, falls, and eventually collapses in on itself. And certainly, the past week has been instructive in terms of the speed and ferocity of that collapse. The entire Western political class seems to be completely incapable of processing what is going on, and is reacting to it all in utterly crazy ways.
We have seen MILLIONS of people marching in the streets, protesting (actually quite necessary) pension reforms in France, which the government there simply rammed through. That led to violent protests in Paris, which the entire Western whore-media greeted with a resounding yawn. Rioting is, after all, a national pastime in France, and especially in “gay Pareeeee”, which is not so much French anymore and is essentially an Arab-African shithole, with LITERAL shit on the streets.
(This, by the way, is what one might call a “cruel irony”, given France’s history as a colonial power over the very peoples that now rule Paris.)
Not to be outdone, a not-very-intelligent but politically ambitious diversity-hire DA in New York F***ing Shitty has decided it will be a SPLENDID idea to go after His Most Illustrious, Noble, August, Benevolent, and Legendary Celestial Majesty, the God-Emperor of Mankind, Donaldus Triumphus Magnus Astra, the First of His Name, the Lion of Midnight, may the Lord bless him and preserve him, for something that was essentially a legal non-issue, and which the Federal government and Congress itself warned him would be a big mistake. He went ahead with indicting the God-Emperor even so, and in the process has essentially ensured the further division, polarisation, and breakdown of whatever little trust remains among Americans in their own government.
(And that, of course, illustrates the supreme danger posed by giving power to incompetent idiots with inflated egos – especially Dindus who lack the humility and intelligence to understand the consequences of their own stupidity, given their inability to defer gratification in general.)
The results of all of this madness are entirely predictable, and quite visible now. There is a sense of existential dread and despair that you can feel in the air if you walk the streets of any major Western city. You get a real feeling that literally no one in power has any clue about what is going on, and certainly no one has any interest in fixing the problems. That, of course, is because they are incapable of even defining the problem – which is a CLASSIC symptom of late-stage imperial collapse. The disconnect between subjects and rulers always grows so great that the two might as well come from completely different countries, even worlds – and, indeed, that is actually what has happened in the Western world now.
This always – ALWAYS – ends badly for a nation, or an empire. The collapse, when it comes, is often a major shock at the time, but it is simple (though not easy) to look back in time and find out how and why it happened. (The fact that, sixteen centuries after the generally accepted date of its collapse, historians STILL cannot fully agree on exactly what killed off the western Roman Empire, should tell you just how hard it is to figure out what went wrong.)
These factors, combined with recently released economic data, suggest we are in for a very torrid time. An older colleague sent me this graph, and it should shock you:
What you are looking at, is what us grizzled old veterans of the capital markets world call “the 10s2s spread”. Normally, we look at it for swap rates, but this is for constant-maturity Treasury bonds, which we can use as an effective economic indicator.
Essentially, it shows the difference between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yield. Normally, that spread should be positive – because of the way the time-value of money works, it SHOULD cost more to hold money for longer. But, when the spread goes negative, it means the market expects long-term rates to go down, relative to short-term ones – i.e., the central bank will in future ease the money supply.
The larger the spread, the bigger the expected rate cut. And, judging by that graph, the markets expect a HUGE rate cut in the near future.
But it gets substantially worse than that. The 10s2s spread is also an excellent indicator of when a recession will hit, and how bad it will be. Recessions typically do not start until that spread crosses back above the zero line. The bigger the gap between the zero line and the 10s2s spread when it is in negative territory, the harder and longer the coming recession is.
You can look back through the FRED database all the way back to the 1980s, and you will find this relationship to be true since the 1990s. And if you look at how far negative the 10s2s spread has gone now…
Well, hold on to your teeth, people, because this is going to be REALLY bad.
This is not a call for black-pilling or despair. It is a call for realism. It is a call for grim recognition of the gigantic pile of shit in front of us. And it means we need to plug our noses, grab our shovels, and get to work – because The Powers That Be are not going to fix this. They can’t, because they literally cannot see that pile of shite in front of them until and unless we actually drown them in it.
Things are going to get truly horrible, within months, perhaps a year or so, after that 10s2s spread goes positive again. But this will also present us all with tremendous opportunities as well. You should therefore keep your powder dry, avoid making rash decisions, do not panic, and hold on to cash and real assets wherever you can. The coming crash is going to be horrendous, but if you are dry, sober, and armoured with the faith in God that belongs to each of us, then you will likely get through the Times of Testing to come.
And with that, let us get to the real reason you are here – my sage economic advice is, of course, not the main draw of this site.
This week’s closing Instathot is Allie Dunn, age 23 – she turns 24 on the 14th, apparently – from the USSA. If you scroll down her Instaham page, you will quickly realise she has had… shall we say, extensive retooling. One must admire the aesthetician who did that work, too, given the results.
Have a happy weekend, all. Be safe and strong out there.
5 Comments
You provide us with countless hours of entertainment, completely free of charge. If you need some extra time to do that, literally no one should complain.
Didact,
These Indian scammers are terrorizing the world. The most skilled ones just hack into bank accounts and take people’s money. We don’t even hear their horrendous accent (which is an automatic clue to avoid them).
This channel fights the scammers. Virtually 100% of the scammers are Indian, usually from Calcutta or Delhi :
https://www.youtube.com/@ScammerPayback
The Indian police, of course, are on the take and thus refuse to arrest the scammers. Some anti-scammer YouTubers have even traveled to India to apprehend the scammers, but to no avail. I thought India was at least better than Nigeria, but even that is no longer true.
It seems that Hinduism doesn’t consider stealing to be a sin.
The reputation of Indians worldwide is about to crater. Sadly, this will affect Didact, since most people will not bother to sift through the sordid mass of Indians to find the 2% who are decent human beings like Didact.
Yeah, let’s just say Indians do not do their race any favours. Their women are amazingly ugly, and their culture is backward, intolerant, racist, and extremely low-trust. Indians do fine in India itself, but when they export those things to other countries, that has a knock-on effect.
I’ve visited a number of northern cities in England over the years, and I have seen the impact of South Asians on those communities. They have transformed once-proud English cities into not-very-nice South Asian cities.
This is what mass immigration always does. The few that reject those things and become God-fearing Christians with a Western way of life, are very rare.
But see that channel I linked to. It is a couple of white guys trying to counter hundreds of Indian scammers. Whatever you think of your own race of people, I guarantee that your views will become worse still, despite everything you know. Especially since most scammers are from Calcutta.
Frankly, you should join up with them to help them.
I am one of few white people who will recognize exceptions to the sordid Indian norm like you, but most won’t bother, since they simply don’t have the time to sift through the crap to find the 2% of Indians who are decent human beings like you. So don’t think the negative reputation Indians are acquiring will not affect you. Sadly, it will.
*Join up with the white guys who are countering and sabotaging the Indian scammers from Calcutta.
You should. Your insight can help save civilized societies from the horrors of Indian scammers.