So we somehow have managed to make it through a week where Angry Short Fat Trump imposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, except it wasn’t really a blockade because several ships sailed on their merry way to China, then entered into a negotiated full opening of the Strait with the Iranians, then dropped a 7-TROOF-long thumper-dumper onto everyone announcing some sort of great victory, and then provoked the Persians into completely shutting the Strait again.
This all happened, mind you, within roughly 5 days or less. The resulting chart of Brent (and WTI) crude prices makes the scariest roller-coasters in the world look tame by comparison.
I have worked on fixed income trading desks. These kinds of moves in the market generally result in anywhere between 15bp and 30bp swings in such products, which generates volatility of a type that sends traders to an early grave.
I also have a little bit of knowledge about commodity markets, because I started out my career in an adjacent field. As such, I know that when you have this level of movement in the market, the traders involved have very little – if any – time to settle their hedges and price in their bets. Unless you have serious insider knowledge, it is nearly impossible to figure out how to price, risk, and hedge these movements.
It is the kind of market that has traders and market-watchers MAINLINING Mylanta and Pepto Bismol intravenously.
One has to ask what the hell the plan is in Ornj Boi’s head. Oh, I am sure it is GLORIOUS, and it is the greatest, the best, the most amazing, the most incredible, the most beautiful, the biggest baddest indomitablest incrediblest plan the world has ever seen. From an outsider’s perspective, though, it looks like an orange crack-addicted toddler throwing a shit fit and flinging his pacifier around the room because he cannot make up his mind about whether he wants the strained carrots or the apple puree.
All I can say for sure, is that this level of uncertainty is KILLING global economic growth – and will result in global food shortages later on this year. That latter is a given at this point. The destruction of Qatar’s LNG production capabilities has ensured it, compounding the idiotic Euroweenie SANKSHUNS PECKIDJES against Russian and Belorussian fertilisers.
There are going to be a lot of starving people in the Global South before long. And when that happens… Very Bad Things follow. Hell, there are going to be starving people in the Western nations.
And all because Drumpf is so desperate for a victory of any kind, coming out of this colossal fustercluck that HE CREATED, that he cannot figure out what he actually wants to do.
God help us all.
In the meantime, let us get to the lovely lady of the week, by way of a much-needed distraction. This poast is of course rather late, but hey, better that than never at all.
This here is Laura Margesin, age 25 of Italian and German extraction (hence the unusually Kraut last name), and she is a really-for-real model. As with all things Italian, we must reiterate for the record that we rather like and approve of the Eyeties around here, and for VERY good reason. You can see the effects of both La Dolce Vita and generous portions of nonna‘s spaghetti in such women. My visit to Italy a couple of years ago confirmed that these are very pleasant things indeed to observe and enjoy.
Happy weekend, all.
1 Comment
i think you’re imputing to Trump far more agency than he actually has. whether because Nutanyahu has Epstein files on Trump/admin or simply due to pathological Semito-philia ( such as Swisher Graham ) or just because the Jewish billionaires figured out a way to apply pressure to him ( pedo protector Bongino has claimed that “sometimes you just run into something so powerful that you can’t fight it” ) that Israel / the international conspiracy has completely free rein in this theater.
as witness the arranged “cease fire” in Lebanon, in which somehow Israel is NOT required to cease fire. also as witness the entirely bizarre instances of Trump literally pulling out a chair at the head of the table, seating Bibi in it and then wandering away like a dismissed serving maid. also numerous public statements from Trump about the 6beelionaire funders of his campaign. it’s not just other heads of state that Trump absolutely does not treat this way but, reputedly, every man he meets he tries to AMOG. how then is he so servile to Bibi?
we knew from the first Trump admin that Donnie Tiny Hands had an unhealthy affinity for the Tiny Hats. but this second admin has been completely off the rails with serving Bibi Netanyahu and the loons in Shin Bet / Mossad.
not that an American president being effectively compromised by AIPAC / Israel is unusual. every POTUS going back to at least Lyndon Johnson has been to one extent or another and i can make a case for Woodrow Wilson. even Ulysses Grant was pandering to them from his presidential election throughout his terms.