I realise I am quite late to the party here, but the (relatively) recent publication of two long-form articles in The Washington Compost is worth examining a little. These days, the ONLY good reason to read The Jeff Bezos Blog is to get an understanding of what Clown World’s (actually quite sinister and terrifying) Deep State is doing.

As we know, the paper itself has degraded well past its halcyon days, when the likes of Carl Bernstein (who has gone full potato) and Bob Woodward exposed the shady doings of Watergate. Today, it is not even worth using as a toilet-paper substitute – not least because it has switched to a mostly online-only subscription model. And, frankly, even at US$1 a week for a subscription, it is HUGELY overpriced.

The fact that they are now suffering through writer’s strikes themselves, is really just a schadenboner-inducing bit of news that makes curmudgeons like me look forward gleefully to the day when this particularly disgusting whore-media rag finally collapses.

Vitriol and wishes for extreme justice dealt out against whorenalists (preferably via very rushed meetings with Madame Guillotine) aside, no matter how much they might induce warm fuzzies, the paper actually did everyone a public service for once last week.

That was when they published a couple of articles about Bellendsky the Pecker-Piano-Player-President of 404 – Country Not Found, and about the state of the Khlearly Khaotic Khatastrophic Khollapsed Khreat Khokholite Khumvee Khounteroffensive. As even the most die-hard presstitute has to admit now – usually through a mouthful of bile – the Ukrainian battle plan has failed, utterly and totally, and Ukraine today is in very dire straits.

Put simply, the articles finally admitted an obvious truth:

Western military planning suffers from a SEVERE garbage-in-garbage-out problem – in that most of what they think is “planning”, is in fact pure CRAP.

With respect to the articles themselves, since I absolutely refuse to pay for the bilge these people produce, I will provide links to the articles in what follows below – but I highly recommend you use a paywall-remover, like 12ft.io, to strip the stupid payment requests out of them, or search for them on archive.ph. That way, you can read these articles in peace, and still sleep comfortably and smugly in the knowledge that your efforts will put yet more whorenalists out of work. That is how I got the information, after all.

Before I proceed, if you want the full breakdown of these two articles from the perspective of an actual Russian former officer and real expert on industrial warfare, watch this video from Grandpa Grumpuss, because he grumps about all the same points I address here, and then some:

The GIGO Problem

The first article goes into the details of how the war planning between the FUSA and the Ukrainians resulted in a battle plan that absolutely did not work – and could not work, because American generals and officers simply do not know how to fight actual serious combined-arms wars.

That is not hyperbole on my part – we have very clear evidence of it from more than 50 years of military history, in which the FUSA has NEVER won a single serious war against even third-rate opponents.

As that article points out:

• Ukrainian, U.S. and British military officers held eight major tabletop war games to build a campaign plan. But Washington miscalculated the extent to which Ukraine’s forces could be transformed into a Western-style fighting forcein a short period — especially without giving Kyiv air power integral to modern militaries.
• U.S. and Ukrainian officials sharply disagreed at times over strategy, tactics and timing. The Pentagon wanted the assault to begin in mid-April to prevent Russia from continuing to strengthen its lines. The Ukrainians hesitated, insisting they weren’t ready without additional weapons and training.
• U.S. military officials were confident that a mechanized frontal attack on Russian lines was feasible with the troops and weapons that Ukraine had. The simulations concluded that Kyiv’s forces,in the best case, could reach the Sea of Azov and cut off Russian troops in the south in 60 to 90 days.
• The United States advocated a focused assault along that southern axis, but Ukraine’s leadership believed its forces had to attack at three distinct points along the 600-mile front, southward toward both Melitopol and Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov and east toward the embattled city of Bakhmut.
• The U.S. intelligence community had a more downbeat view than the U.S. military, assessing that the offensive had only a 50-50 chance of success given the stout, multilayered defenses Russia had built up over the winter and spring.
• Many in Ukraine and the West underestimated Russia’s ability to rebound from battlefield disasters and exploit its perennial strengths: manpower, mines and a willingness to sacrifice lives on a scale that few other countries can countenance.
• As the expected launch of the offensive approached, Ukrainian military officials feared they would suffer catastrophic losses — while American officials believed the toll would ultimately be higher without a decisive assault.

The rest of the article then goes into details about how the Americans extensively wargamed out various scenarios, using software, spreadsheets, and boards, to demonstrate the power of a single massed-armour assault against the entrenched Russian positions in southern Zaporozh’ye. The Ukrainians, by contrast, wanted a three-pronged attack against all parts of the Russian line.

In the end, the Ukies won out, and split their forces to attack in south-west and south-east Zaporozh’ye, and then again in Donetsk against Bakhmut/Artyomovsk.

We all saw how THAT turned out.

Calibration Errors

The article itself is essentially an exercise in “blamestorming” – trying to pin the fault for the Khatastrophic Khounteroffensive on the khokhols themselves.

The problem is, this fails the smell-test for anyone with any sort of mathematical background.

Not to brag, but I do have that background. And I know, from nearly two decades of experience in programming and spreadsheet modelling, that your models and simulations are only ever as good as the data you put in. This is such an obvious statement, you would think I would never have to repeat it. But then you read this in the first article, and you realise how big the problem with Western military culture really is:

“It was easy for us to tell them in a tabletop exercise, ‘Okay, you’ve just got to focus on one place and push really hard,’” a senior U.S. official said. “They were going to lose a lot of people and they were going to lose a lot of the equipment.”

Those choices, the senior official said, become “much harder on the battlefield.”

On that, a senior Ukrainian military official agreed. War-gaming “doesn’t work,” the official said in retrospect, in part because of the new technology that was transforming the battlefield. Ukrainian soldiers were fighting a war unlike anything NATO forces had experienced: a large conventional conflict, with World War I-style trenches overlaid by omnipresent drones and other futuristic tools — and without the air superiority the U.S. military has had in every modern conflict it has fought.

“All these methods … you can take them neatly and throw them away, you know?” the senior Ukrainian said of the war-game scenarios. “And throw them away because it doesn’t work like that now.”

And there you have it. When I say Western military planners literally do not know how to fight serious combined-arms wars, it is not me banging on about something in which I have zero expertise. This is what the people actually doing the fighting, bleeding, and dying, are telling us.

The people planning these manoeuvres do not have the experience, the datasets, or the understanding necessary to plug in the right variables. They assume things that have no basis in reality – such as the notion that the Russians would simply break and run when attacked, or that manoeuvre warfare works in an environment of complete C4ISR where the enemy has total air supremacy and at least parity in drone warfare.

This war is unlike anything any Western officer has ever seen. Even Gen. Christopher Cavoli, currently Supreme Allied Commander Europe, has admitted as much, saying all the way back in February that the scale of the war is unlike anything NATO has seen since WWII.

All of the textbook theories about manoeuvre warfare, built out of the American experience in Desert Storm, have proven useless in this war.

That is not to say the Americans did not achieve something remarkable in that war – they absolutely did. They proved the extreme effectiveness of air power and intensive training on desert armour tactics – but they did it against a fifth-rate enemy using knock-off Soviet tanks with far weaker armour, poor morale, little by way of C4ISR, and severely inferior technologies.

None of those things apply to the Russians in the Banderastan War. The Russian military of today is radically different from the relatively limited expeditionary force that went into Ukraine in February 2022. This version of the Russian military, which we have seen in action for over a year, is professional, well-equipped, well-trained, and steeped in academic and practical knowledge of war that traces its lineage back a thousand years.

More importantly, that military has the support of Russia’s immense industrial power – the sheer scale and strength of which we in the West simply did not understand, and to a great extent still do not. I have lived in Russia, and as I have repeatedly admitted, I am shocked by how big the Russian industrial and manufacturing machine actually is. The fact that Russia can, by itself, outproduce the entire combined West, and is probably second only to China in manufacturing capability, says quite a lot.

The article then goes into a lengthy exposition about what happened during the early stages of the counterploink. Tl;dr version:

Let’s just say the Ukrainians have suffered very badly from the very poor choices they made.

Life Is Hard – It’s Harder When You’re Stupid

This dovetails with what we see in the second article, which discusses how the Russians simply kerb-stomped the Ukrainians the moment they began their assaults on June 4^th.

That article delves deep into the truly catastrophic state of Ukrainian forces:

• Seventy percent of troops in one of the brigades leading the counteroffensive, and equipped with the newest Western weapons, entered battle with no combat experience.
• Ukraine’s setbacks on the battlefield led to rifts with the United States over how best to cut through deep Russian defenses.
• The commander of U.S. forces in Europe couldn’t get in touch with Ukraine’s top commander for weeks in the early part of the campaign amid tension over the American’s second-guessing of battlefield decisions.
• Each side blamed the other for mistakes or miscalculations. U.S. military officials concluded that Ukraine had fallen short in basic military tactics, including the use of ground reconnaissance to understand the density of minefields. Ukrainian officials said the Americans didn’t seem to comprehend how attack drones and other technology had transformed the battlefield.
• In all, Ukraine has retaken only about 200 square miles of territory, at a cost of thousands of dead and wounded and billions in Western military aid in 2023 alone.

Nearly six months after the counteroffensive began, the campaign has become a war of incremental gains. Damp World War I-style trenches lace eastern and southern Ukraine as surveillance and attack drones crowd the skies overhead. Moscow launches missile assaults on civilian targets in Ukrainian cities, while Kyiv is using both Western missiles and home-grown technology to strike far behind the front lines — in Moscow, in Crimea and on the Black Sea.

All of those gains are now GONE. The Russians are still conducting “active defence” – they are quite happily sitting in their trenches and fortifications and ploinking anything that comes their way, but they are taking opportunities where they arise to attack. And they are doing so quite successfully.

We have now seen the Russians take almost all of Marinka, and making gains in Avdeevka. They are pushing hard across the entire front line – and they are doing so with troop numbers equal to or greater than whatever the Ukies can scrape up.

The article goes on to reinforce a key and salient fact – Western trainers have no bloody clue about the real nature of this war:

Some of the Ukrainian soldiers thought the American trainers didn’t grasp the scale of the conflict against a more powerful enemy. “The presence of a huge number of drones, fortifications, minefields and so on were not taken into account,” said a soldier in the 47th with the call sign Joker. Ukrainian soldiers brought their own drones to help hone their skills, he said, but trainers initially rebuffed the request to integrate them because the training programs were predetermined. Drone use was later added following Ukrainian feedback, a U.S. official said.

The U.S. program had benefits, Joker said, including advanced cold-weather training and how to adjust artillery fire. But much was discarded once real bullets flew. “We had to improve tactics during the battle itself,” he said. “We couldn’t use it the way we were taught.”

U.S. and Ukrainian officials said they never expected that two months of training would transform these troops into a NATO-like force. Instead, the intention was to teach them to properly use their new Western tanks and fighting vehicles and “make them literate in the basics of firing and moving,” a U.S. senior military official said.

None of that would help against entrenched Russian positions. The ONLY serious advantage the Ukies have against the Russians right now, is the fact that their artillery pieces have longer ranges than Russian guns – because Western guns fire at higher pressures than Russian ones do. The trade-off is that Western barrels wear out a damned sight faster than Russian ones do – and, unlike the Russians, the West has very limited ability to replace those barrels or manufacture new ones.

And all of that is before we get to the indisputable fact that the Russians are now producing heavy self-propelled and towed artillery systems that out-range their NATO counterparts.

The article touches on other points, such as the extraordinary, and horrifying, density of Russian anti-tank and anti-personnel minefields. They are on a level that Western military planners have never, ever seen before – therefore, they cannot plan effectively against it.

There is plenty of nonsense and garbage in the article, too, about Russian “meat assaults” – this is pure projection, the only evidence we have of true human wave attacks comes from seeing Ukrainians repeatedly and senselessly assault entrenched Russian positions on foot, without artillery or armoured support.

Swan Dive Onto Sharp Rocks

There is one last article from The Washington Compost which emerged a few days ago, that looks at the consequences of Bellendsky’s failed charm offensive. This Lee Hockstader chap, whoever he is, now says the quiet part out loud – that Ukraine is on the brink of defeat and collapse.

In fact, he is wrong – Ukraine has ALREADY LOST, as I have said repeatedly. It is merely a matter of time before the final destruction of the Ukrainian state, as we know it today, and the complete, unconditional surrender of the entity once known as Banderastan.

Here is what he has to say:

Andriy Yermak, a top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told a Washington forum last week that the “big risk” is that Kyiv’s troops could “lose this war.”

That message should jolt policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic. The danger, as Ukraine’s top general warned publicly last month, isn’t simply stalemate. It is that Ukrainian forces, running low on equipment, might be compelled to fall back, shorten their defensive lines and abandon territory.

“It would be a way back to the darkest times of the war,” Nico Lange, a German security expert on Ukraine, told me.

It’s essential to think about what Ukraine’s defeat means, because it would be as much a strategic disaster for the United States and its NATO allies as a tableau of terror for Ukraine. Dual cataclysms, equally stark, played out on different timetables.

A complete Ukrainian military collapse is unlikely, at least in coming months. Kyiv’s armed forces remain well-led and motivated, and they are husbanding equipment to prepare for shortfalls. But it is equally unlikely to expect a negotiated cease-fire with Russia that would maintain existing battle lines. To believe in that seemingly anodyne outcome is to misjudge Putin — again.

For the Kremlin dictator, a “compromise” would involve Ukraine’s subjugation and dissolution as an independent state. That would include regime change, with Zelensky in exile (or dead), as well as an end to Kyiv’s aspirations to join the E.U. or NATO.

Other than the idiocy of calling President Putin a “dictator” – he is nothing of the sort, and enjoys vastly greater actual popularity with his own people than ANY Western leader other than Hungary’s Viktor Orban – the points raised above are correct.

(It is important to note that, at this point, Russia is FAR more democratic and representative of the people’s will, than literally any of the Western nations opposing it. That is a fact, which you can verify for yourself just by visiting Mordor – sorry, Russia.)

Ukraine’s fall is assured. Even with over US$100B in fresh cash injections, that money can no longer buy actual weapons – because there are none to be had. The West has denuded itself of manufacturing capability, which means they are throwing ever greater amounts of money at ever smaller quantities of weapons.

Anyone with a child’s understanding of musical chairs can understand this will push prices of artillery shells and other weapons through the roof. And, in fact, that is what is already happening.

The result will be a complete Russian victory, quite possibly sometime in 2024, as the Ukrainian front lines buckle and break under relentless Russian pressure. This is already happening – the Russians are advancing across the entire front, and we are getting ever greater numbers of reports of Ukrainian forces breaking and fleeing, or surrendering en masse, or simply being unable to fight any longer due to depletion and exhaustion.

Conclusion – The Long Goodbye

The final picture of Ukraine will look very much like that map which Dmitry Medvedev shared many months ago – where Russia will retake its historical lands east of the Dnieper River, along with Odessa and the entire southern Black Sea Coast.

This is not speculation. The Neo-Tsar literally said as much, during his epic 4-hour press conference/Q&A session on the 14^th:

The result will be a landlocked, broken, extremely poor, totally useless rump western Ukraine – if any kind of “Ukraine” survives at all – and the absorption of everything else into Russia. I doubt the Russians want to occupy western Ukraine very much – they are not stupid, they know perfectly well the people there hate them, and are not interested in some sort of Werwolf equivalent in parts of Banderastan that do not serve their purposes.

When you consider what is likely to happen, and you look back on how things were just 18 months ago, when we very nearly had an armistice agreement between Ukraine and Russia…

… and you look at the horror and carnage that has resulted today, along with the economic devastation this has unleashed in the West…

… then you really have to ask what it was all for.

Future historians will likely condemn Bozo BoJo’s visit to Queef in late March last year as a fateful exercise in utter cynicism, which resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands. And when you realise there are now machinations underway to install him as Prime Minister in PommieBastardLande YET AGAIN, you really have to ask what the hell is wrong with the Western world now.

Empires always collapse when they reach maximum levels of cognitive dissonance between what the elites think is real, and what the ordinary people actually see. Put more simply, empires collapse when they reach Peak Clown World. We are almost certainly beyond that point now.

Which means the collapse of Banderastan – which is a MATHEMATICAL CERTAINTY – will result in the collapse of the Western empire, into anarchy and bloodshed on a scale we have never seen before.

Nut up, boys – the next year is going to be WILD.