The dominant news story today is the mutiny – or rebellion, or coup, depending on whom you listen to – of the Wagner private military company (PMC) in Russia. The crisis unfolded rapidly since yesterday, at close to midnight GMT, when the titular head of the Wagner group, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, called Sergey Shoigu, the Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation, and Valeriy Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (the approximate equivalent of the American Chairman of the Joint Chiefs), traitors, and demanded their prosecution.
Why It Happened
The motivation behind this moonbattery seems to be a video alleging the Russian Army had attacked Wagner PMC positions and that there were fatalities among his troops.
The problem is, the actual video on Russian social media shows absolutely nothing of the sort:
After that, Prigozhin then stated that Wagner forces would cross the borders from Lugansk and Donetsk into Russia, and would take up positions in Russia itself. This is precisely what he did.
As of this morning, Wagner PMC forces have occupied the centre of the city of Rostov-on-Don, in southern Russia, not far from the borders of what was once Ukraine and is now Novorossiya. They took over the headquarters of the Southern Military District, with Prigozhin issuing ever more unhinged rants from within the building’s courtyard, claiming that true casualties on the front are 3-4 times what the Russian MoD says, and that a thousand Russian troops are dying every day.
It is important to note that not ONE thing Prigozhin has said in the past week, is even remotely close to true. Prigozhin has claimed recently that there was no actual military crisis in Donbass in February 2022, and that the Russian MoD made the whole thing up, essentially. He has claimed the Russian forces in Banderastan suffer from low morale, poor equipment, extreme fatigue, and run away from their positions – but, every time he says such things, the Russian forces themselves film videos posted on Telegram refuting his claims point by point.
His latest appearances have been nothing short of flat-out deranged:
The Situation So Far
As of last night, the Russian FSB – their version of the FBI, except, y’know, competent – opened up a criminal investigation into the Wagner PMC, and into Prigozhin personally. Then, this morning, after Wagner forces occupied the centre of Rostov-on-Don, President Putin sent out a message to the Russian people, in which he appeared resolute, determined, and in an absolutely uncompromising mood:
Look at his body language. There is nothing in it whatsoever to suggest weakness, indecisiveness, or fear, of any kind. Putin is in command, he is in full control, he is not worried – but he is very, VERY angry.
It is very important to understand that, up until this point, Prigozhin had been very careful not to criticise Putin personally. That all vanished right after Putin made that speech. Prigozhin issued a statement that essentially said:
Prigozhin: “The President made a mistake, we are not traitors to the Motherland. We are patriots.
“We fought and are fighting. All Wagner PMCs. And no one is going to turn themselves in at the request of the President of the FSB and anyone else, because we do not want the country to live on in corruption, deceit and bureaucracy. Those who oppose us today, they gathered around the scum”
Prigozhin refused to surrender and lay down his arms.
This is no longer a “misunderstanding” of some sort. This is a full-blown mutiny. And mutineers can expect to face 20 years’ imprisonment, at minimum. That is Russian law, and the Constitutional rule of law still holds strong in Russia.
Now, it is not, insofar as I can tell, an actual insurrection or coup attempt. The Wagner guys are not (yet) trying to storm and capture political centres and topple local or regional governments. Prigozhin’s demands are very specific. He wants to talk to Shoigu and Gerasimov, and he wants them to face public prosecution and removal from office.
What Next?
As of this precise time of writing, a column of Wagner forces – I do not know the actual size – is heading toward Moscow, barrelling north up the M4 motorway past Yelets and Lipetsk toward the Moscow region and the Kashirskoye Highway (I know that area – been there a few times). Precisely what they plan to achieve, I simply do not know – because they will not be able to achieve much.
It is very important to keep a few things in mind here.
First, the entirety of the Russian government backs Putin. Every single one of his siloviki (men of strength) has come out in full-throated support of the Neo-Tsar. How could they do otherwise, after all? More than 80% of the Russian population also supports him and believes he is doing the right thing in the SMO.
The Russian military fully backs him as well. Gen. Surovikin, the deputy commander of the Russian forces in Banderastan – subordinate only to Gerasimov himself – and the actual on-the-ground commander of all Russian forces there, released a video on Telegram telling the Wagner fighters to lay down their arms peacefully and walk away from this madness:
And it IS madness. There is simply no way for the Wagner organisation to survive on its own.
That brings us to the second key point. Wagner IS NOT a PMC in the same sense as Blackwater, or Akademi, or whatever the hell they call themselves nowadays. The Wagner organisation is essentially an offshoot of the Russian MoD, under a relatively independent command structure, but staffed by ex-Russian military and FSB officers, by and large, who get paid a lot of money and have a lot of power.
The origins of Wagner are shrouded in secrecy, but from what others have been able to gather – most notably, Alexander Mercouris, whose sources told him this – the Wagner organisation was actually founded by a couple of ex-FSB and ex-GRU types, who wanted and needed to create a paramilitary structure that would depend on the Russian Ministry of Defence for supply and replenishment, but which could nominally operate in places the Russian military could not, by Russian law, go and work.
This is why it was the Wagner PMC that did so much of the heavy lifting in Syria, while the Russian Aerospace Forces provided substantial support and air cover. The Russian military could not, at that time, act as a real expeditionary force – so the Wagner PMC did the role instead.
They are perhaps the world’s finest light infantry urban assault force, and they proved that when they captured Artyomovsk – previously, Bakhmut.
But now, they have turned traitor.
Third, whatever else happens from all of this, Wagner’s existence as an independent entity is OVER. The Russian people have rallied behind their government and leader, and they now regard Wagner in general, and Prigozhin in particular, as traitors to the Motherland.
Prigozhin does not have the logistics and capabilities to operate independently. Wagner depends on the Russian MoD for fuel, food, ammunition, vehicles, and virtually everything else. They cannot simply launch a war – especially not on Russian soil – without that support.
Without it, Wagner is DONE. And that support is being methodically squeezed out right now. Wagner’s official channels are being purged all over Telegram and VKontakte. They will have to raid Russian fuel stations and stores to resupply.
Fourth, there is now a concerted effort underway to discredit Prigozhin personally. Apparently, the FSB has found something like US$50M in his hotel room:
Prigozhin has evidently long harboured political ambitions of some kind. He seems to have let those ambitions go to his head – and he may have seen things in the Siege of Bakhmut that turned that giant head of his upside down. The infamous video of him ranting and screaming into the camera, surrounded by the bodies of dead Wagner fighters, accusing Shoigu and Gerasimov of criminal incompetence and hoarding ammunition, thereby killing his men, showed a seriously mentally unhinged man.
Unknown Unknowns
There are several major unknowns in all of this.
We must always keep in mind the fact that Prigozhin IS NOT in overall command of Wagner. He is not a military guy, at all. He is, in fact, a twice-convicted criminal, a billionaire, and a guy with serious ambitions. The second-in-command of Wagner is a chap named Mizintsev, who joined Wagner quite recently. That guy, though, was a seriously high-ranking general in the Russian Army – whose greatest achievement, to date, was the conquest of Mariupol’.
So, one therefore has to ask:
What the HELL is going on with the Wagner chain of command?!?!?
We know they ultimately answer to the Russian MoD. Wagner takes orders, one way or another, from the Russian General Staff. So how, exactly, are the Wagner forces moving against their own?!?
Furthermore, we do not know what the end goal is here. Does Prigozhin seriously think he can depose Shoigu and Gerasimov, simply by marching on Moscow, with a limited force of a few battalions?
The whole of Russia has closed ranks around Putin. I am seeing, right now, videos and pictures of units of the Russian Armed Forces swearing allegiance to Russia, the Commander-in-Chief (i.e. Putin), and the Russian Constitution, and denouncing Prigozhin in the harshest possible terms. What, exactly, does Prigozhin think he will achieve here?
I really do not know.
Nor do I know whether this will result in bloodshed. I dearly hope not – the Russian people have gone through quite enough by now – but it is a very real possibility. We have already seen video evidence of a Wagner Strela air defence system firing on a Russian Aerospace Forces Ka-52 attack helicopter:
And we also have video of Wagner trucks and cars getting smacked by missile attacks:
This has the potential to get extremely ugly, very quickly. Wagner has something between 30,000 and 40,000 men under arms at present, which is a very substantial force – and a significant amount of Russia’s military is tied up in Banderastan right now, so the ability of the Russian military to stop this in its tracks is limited. They will need to rely on the Ministry of the Interior – i.e., Rosgvardiya (Russian National Guard) units, which include the Chechens, OMON, SOBR, and OBTR Kaskad forces.
If this turns bloody, it will spiral out of control in a huge hurry.
Conclusion – An Unmitigated PR Catastrophe
The absolute worst thing about all of this, though, is the timing. It is nothing short of a disaster for the Russian Federation.
Consider: the Russians are absolutely DESTROYING the Ukrainians in Zaporozh’ye. They have slaughtered a full 13,000 Ukrainian troops in just three weeks of their Khreat Khokholite Khumvee Khounteroffensive, which has long since khommenced, and is an utter khatastrophe. They have wiped out hundreds of tanks, AFVs, IFVs, and artillery pieces.
They have over 70% of the global economy, comprising 80% of the world’s population, supporting them. They have everyone outside the BRICS, clamouring to join in, wanting out of the dollar-denominated Anal Empire of Lies and the GloboHomoPaedoPharisatanists who rule it.
The Russians are WINNING. Their senior leaders are completely calm, confident, and self-assured. They know they are winning, and they know they just need to stay the course. They know full well the Anal Empire is desperate and flailing for any possible way to strike back at Russia.
And then – THIS happens.
I cannot but think that Prigozhin has been compromised, somehow, by the SBU and CIA. The timing is simply too perfect. He has outright refused to obey the lawful orders of the President of Russia, which means he is a traitor to his country – yet, he claims he simply wants justice. I think this is nonsense, personally, and so do most Russians.
But, if the Anal Empire wanted an excuse to ramp up their war against Russia even more dramatically, they now have it.
They can now go to Vilnius, for the NATO summit, and exclaim, “our strategery is WERKING!!!” They will call for MOAR SANKSHUNS!!!! and MOAR WUNDAWEPPINS!!!, and more support for Ukraine – to include F-16s, ATACMS missiles, and even possibly tactical nukes. They will argue that Russia really is weak and fragile, and just needs a bit more pushing.
The precise opposite is true. Russian society has unified in a way that I have not seen before – certainly not since I first visited in 2017, and probably not since the Great Patriotic War. But, as I have stated so many times by now, the West fights a war of perception, whereas Russia fights a war of reality – and the West’s perception is that Russia is weak and ripe for plundering, IF ONLY it could get that rascally Putin out of the way.
May God help us all when the Nuland-Kagan Cabal pushes hard enough, and gives Ukraine tactical nukes, because then, we are all DEAD. Russia already has its nuclear weapons deployed and trained on American and Western cities – and, unlike Western nuclear weapons, Russia’s cannot be stopped. Their RS-28 Sarmat has effectively global reach, and can come from behind American missile defences, and CANNOT be intercepted by the, already porous and fragile, American ABM shield (which is actually pretty useless, as we have now seen with the Patriot PAC-3 systems).
The SBU and CIA seem to have found their catspaw, their pawn, to use in their latest attempt to destabilise the Russian government. They will fail, because they do not understand just how strong the Russian government and people are in their united will to resist the West. But they have inflicted tremendous damage to Russia’s global reputation, at least in the short term.
Russia’s allies – Turkiye, China, Brazil, South Africa, India, and so on, down the list – are all looking at Russia right now wondering if things are stable. If they sense Russia getting wobbly, they will run straight back to the Anal Empire to get bent over a barrel and raped – because that is where global economic power and influence will flow.
The Anal Empire knows this, and is trying its best to destroy Russia as quickly and thoroughly as possible, because it also knows it is failing to break Russia, and is getting desperate. Once you start looking at these things spiritually, and you realise just how strong the pull of the Principalities and Powers is, you will quickly comprehend the reasons behind all of this madness.
All I can say is, I hope this mutiny – for that is what it is – will be over soon, and with minimal loss of life and bloodshed. Russia’s job is to destroy Ukraine, conquer whatever is left, retake its historical lands and peoples, and break the Western Anal Empire. Until and unless that happens, none of us can look to the future with much hope.
4 Comments
I’ve read that this is another colour revolution funded by Israel.
The globalists seem determined to start WWIII. God help us.
I doubt it is Israel, directly – they know full well that their involvement in an armed mutiny against the Russian government, will immediately result in substantial sales of Russian hypersonic weapons and air defence means to Iran, which will render Israel even more isolated in the region than it already is. But, Mikhail Khodorkovskiy, the disgraced former head of Yukos and once the richest man in Russia – and a Jew who strongly opposed Putin, back in the day – seems to be all over this one, and there is good reason to believe he has links with the Israeli Mossad/Shin Bet.
to me, this has earmarks of grandiose narcissism, poor planning, absurdly poor planning and expectations that everyone else will agree with his proposed stupidity.
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you know, cocaine. or some other intoxicant. i’ve dealt with snowballs who’ve had a booger suger habit before. sometimes they’re fairly normal. other times, you wonder what the heck you’ve gotten yourself into.
Honestly, I’m thinking Big Country has it right…
https://bigcountryexpat.substack.com/p/i-called-this-24-48-hours-ago?publication_id=1660417&isFreemail=true