The power to destroy a thing is the absolute control over it.

— Paul-Muad’dib Atreides, from DUNE by Frank Herbert

The “Large-Scale Military Operation”, or “Special Combat Operation”, that most of us now dub Operation: AIPAC F***-UP, is now in its 29th day. Back when it all started, Angry Short Fat Trump told us that it would last, at most, 3-4 days. Well, the FUSA missed that mark by a factor of only 7, so I suppose we should all be grateful for that margin of error…

We can laugh at the colossal failures of judgement and competence on display nowadays, but their consequences are not funny, at all. The graphic you see above is something that dropped on one of my Telegram feeds the other day, and I think it very nicely sums up the situation the world faces right now.

Simply put, we are not merely looking at a crisis. We are staring down the barrel of a GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE.

That is not hyperbole, it is a cold hard recognition of basic facts and evidence.

I do, of course, need to explain why I think this. We need to look at the available data around how much global oil and natural gas supply has collapsed since the start of this madness on Feb 28, 2026.

A quick query to Perplexity – probably the best of the Abominable Intelligence applications for actual deep research – provides the following breakdown of the collapse in global supply since the start of this entire insane stunt:

Total reductions relative to 27 Feb 2026

• Oil (crude and liquids)
  • Middle East Gulf producers have shut in at least 10 mb/d of liquids (8 mb/d crude plus 2 mb/d condensates/NGLs), with some analyses of field-level cuts suggesting up to 11.5 mb/d at peak.
  • With global pre-crisis supply around 100 mb/d, that implies a total global oil supply reduction of roughly 8–11% versus 27 Feb 2026.
• Natural gas (LNG and regional gas)
  • Qatar’s effective shutdown alone removes around 17–20% of global LNG supply; adding UAE and other regional disruptions, total Gulf-related LNG losses could approach 20% of global LNG in flow terms if the outages persist at current levels.
  • In volumetric terms, that is on the order of 330–375 mcm/d of LNG supply lost, plus less clearly measured pipeline gas losses in Iran and the Eastern Mediterranean that add some tens of mcm/d more on a global basis.

It is important to understand that, as the Artificial Imbecile itself points out, these are estimates at best. We still have no idea how bad the damage is to the various oil and gas production facilities, and we will not know until the war itself finally ends and we can all take stock of the damage done.

However, there is absolutely no doubt or question that the world faces the single worst supply-side shock in history. Again, that is not a hyperbolic or alarmist claim. We are looking at something far, FAR worse than the twin oil shocks in the 1970s, which jacked up inflation far into the mid-teens rates in much of the West, and forced dramatic tightening of monetary policy. The two situations are not the same. In the 1970s, there was plenty of spare capacity to go around – it took time to get that capacity online and on-stream, but it was available. Moreover, the Middle Eastern nations that created the price shock, did so to send a message to the West – but they themselves had no problem flooding the market with oil if they needed to do so.

In this situation, the spare capacity is severely constrained, for a number of critical reasons. The US “shale revolution” has, by many indicators, largely played itself out, and shale oil is itself not, in any way, a viable substitute for Middle Eastern light sweet crude. In Europe, North Sea oil and gas fields will take time to bring on-stream, especially given the flatly insane “green” policies adopted by most of continental Europe and Britain.

This is already a far worse situation than the supply shock from 4 years ago, when Russia invaded Ukraine, and the West responded by doing its damnedest to take Russian oil and gas off the global markets. At that time, the loss in global oil supply amounted to about 2mbpd. We are talking about a situation anywhere from 5 to 10 times worse today.

The consequences of this supply shock are dire in the extreme, because we are not merely talking about oil and gas as fungible commodities. These shortages will have a substantial cascade effect that will be felt not merely for months, but years to come.

If you want the tl;dr version – or rather, you want everything I am about to write below in video format, with a Russian accent and a whole lot of dark humour – watch this video from the Greek gentlemen at The Duran as they interview former US Army Major Stas Krapivnik, who also worked as a supply chain director at Halliburton:

Now, before we carry on, take a look at the picture below. This is an analysis by JP Morgan Commodities Research – and yes, I know, they are the very epitome of Big Evil Globohomo Bank. Trust me, I am well aware, having worked in that industry for years, just how bad they are. However, they are probably correct in their analysis of the situation with respect to oil deliveries:

The key point here is that we are looking at a supply chain shock that will generate TREMENDOUS second- and third-order effects, and which will, if allowed to continue unchecked, collapse the entire global economy.

Once more – not hyperbole. Here is why.

Start with the stuff that you get from crude oil. From it come gasoline (for cars), kerosene (for airplanes), diesel (for trucks), heating oil (for homes), and so many industrial-use by-products in the form of complex long-chain hydrocarbons that we would be sitting here all bloody day if I had to go through them all.

Now imagine all of that STOPPING. Think what that means for a moment – just consider it.

This means no more diesel for trucks and locomotives to move goods around – which means, no motive power for food.

It means petrol prices skyrocketing to levels beyond what we saw in 2008.

It also means the price of electricity shooting upwards at precisely the time when the late spring and summer cooling season begins. See, in the US – and now increasingly in parts of Europe – what we might call “baseline” power comes from coal, because it is cheap, it burns for a long time, and it has a good “throughput ratio” – that is to say, you get a decent amount of energy units per unit of mass of the substance you are burning.

But to transport coal… you need diesel. If there is no diesel available… the price of coal goes up.

Which means the price of baseline power production goes up.

On top of that, the price of high-demand “peak power” goes up too. Oil and natural gas power plants, in the US, are what we call “peaker plants”. You use (relatively) expensive resources like petroleum and natural gas, which light fast and burn hot – but do not last long – to meet power demand beyond baseline load when there is peak demand on the grids.

If there is no oil or gas to move around, then those power plants stop working.

So, ALL electricity becomes more expensive (except nuclear, and that is another story). The only way to stop electricity from becoming unaffordable for the average household, is therefore to stop the heaviest users of it from, well, using it – which is to say, factories and manufacturing plants.

This means deindustrialisation on a scale that will make Germany’s current problems look minor by comparison.

And it also means inflation breaking into double digits right at the start of the summer.

At this point, ask yourself: having been through the inflationary spikes following the Plandemic and Bidenflation, are you Ameribros really able to handle another round of price increases in the range of 10-15%?

Are you ready and able to absorb the impact of food prices going up 20-50% again?

Furthermore, are you able to handle the reality that many of the plastics and synthetics that are absolute requirements for a modern industrial economy, will simply disappear from supply chains?

To put this in concrete terms – are you prepared for garbage bags suddenly becoming unavailable? I am not joking. Plastic bags are a direct result of the hydrocarbons produced from cracking, distilling, and refining oil – no matter what the idiot Greens have to say on the subject.

We are now facing a situation in which those fundamental plastics and composites suddenly become unavailable.

All of that – food shortages, critically depleted supply chains, the collapse of industrial production processes, and deindustrialisation on a VAST scale- all of that is what is coming, unless Angry Short Fat Trump grows a pair of brain cells and calls off this insanity.

Now let us turn our attention to natural gas.

The stuff that bursts out of the ground is, in and of itself, not the stuff you then freeze, liquefy, and transport in the form of LNG, or pipe through under the ground. It has to be cleaned. There is a lot of water vapour, sand, particulates, and other “junk” that has to be removed from the natural gas blasting out of the ground.

That gas in and of itself contains a very large amount of methane. When you mix that ammonia with the nitrogen that naturally exists in the air, and use the hydrogen present in natural gas as a fuel source and “feedstock” for something called a Haber-Bosch process, you end up (eventually) with nitrate-based fertilisers.

These fertilisers are absolutely critical for the food security of BILLIONS of people around the world – especially in Africa and India.

And two of the largest natural gas-producing nations on Earth – Iran and Qatar – have effectively largely ceased production of natural gas.

Qatar has declared force majeure on many of its delivery contracts to the Western European nations, who thought they could oh-so-cleverly stick it to those EEEEEEEEEVIL ROOSKEES by switching from cheap, plentiful, easily available Russian gas on long-term contracts, to buying Qatari and American LNG on the spot markets (at several times the price, because Europeans, or at least their leaders are MORONS).

Russia produces roughly 15% of the world’s supply of chemical fertilisers for exports. China produces another 13% or so. Belarus produces quite a lot of the stuff too. But all of those countries rely on natural gas to produce nitrate-based fertilisers. Russia, of course, has a plentiful supply of the stuff.

Qatar, on the other hand, no longer does. And Qatar is one of the top 5 suppliers of nitrate-based fertilisers in the world. Worse, its natural gas is the primary component for some of THE largest suppliers in the world of those same fertilisers.

Specifically, Qatari natural gas is critically important to China’s ability to produce and process nitrate-based fertilisers – which it then exports to other countries. And Qatar’s LNG exports have just FLATLINED.

This has happened right at the beginning of planting season in the northern hemisphere. And that means food is going to become much more expensive, and much more scarce.

Low-income families in the West are already under severe pressure and strain. Many of them cannot survive without government food subsidies. When their food prices shoot up yet again, and stay high, they are not going to sit still. They are going to get hungry – and then they are going to get ANGRY.

Have you ever seen what happens when a large population of poor people can no longer feed its children? I have. I saw it unfold in Indonesia in 1998. Those memories haunt me to this day. I saw a city burn as crowds ran riot and young people braved the guns of the military to demand reform and change.

That is what is coming for the West, if this policy continues. We love to mock the Frogs for the fact that their national pastime is rioting and burning their own cities to the ground, but that is going to become normal, unless this war against Iran ends.

But wait, it gets worse!

Does anyone remember what happened to energy prices back in 2008? It was a long time ago, I know, but I remember being in Houston at around this time of year, back then, for one of the world’s largest energy risk conferences. (There was a highly amusing episode involving an absolutely GORGEOUS female company “representative” at that event, which I will skip over for now, but I found it hilarious for years afterwards.)

This was at the time when oil was well on its way to hitting nearly US$150/bbl, igniting inflation at precisely the time the Fed was struggling with interest rates. Back then, US inflation, as measured by a deeply flawed CPI methodology, peaked at around 4.05% annualised in June 2008, at about the same time as Brent benchmarks went over US$143/bbl, and the 10Y US Treasury rate went up past 4%.

Does anyone remember what happened shortly AFTER June 2008?

Yep. The Global Financial Crisis.

Here is why that is germane:

The US 10Y Treasury rate is the benchmark used to set mortgage rates, among other things. It is a fundamental indicator of American economic health. Right now, it is not at 4.16%, as it was back then. It is at 4.42%. And it WILL have to go higher, as the full extent of the absolute catastrophe facing us becomes clear.

The Treasury market is no longer the safe haven it was back then. In 2008, US Treasury securities were as good as cash, and were considered the safest of safe assets. Today, everyone knows the US government is completely insolvent, drowning in debt, and unable to even begin thinking about paying any of that US$37 TRILLION in debt back.

With Treasury yields spiking up toward 5%, this will make it extraordinarily expensive for the US government to fund just the interest payments on its existing debt. When you couple this with inflation squeezing low- and middle-income families, compressing business margins, and destroying demand, you now have a lethal combination that will cause tax receipts to collapse, at exactly the same time as a credit-driven economy loses its primary source of funding – consumer spending.

Spending cuts will become impossible. Lowering interest rates will only fuel further inflation. Tax cuts will not be credible when markets can already see that the US is headed for sovereign default.

So the only way the US government – and, really, any Western government – will be able to respond, will be to allow central banks to raise rates, thereby collapsing the economy as credit creation stops.

We have seen this pattern before. People will default on their mortgages, because they will be faced with a choice of paying for food, heating, petrol, or their houses. In 2008, that resulted in record levels of defaults that wiped out the world’s largest and most powerful financial institutions, because of their extremely high leverage.

Although lending standards have since tightened significantly, there is no good reason to believe that the banks are any less vulnerable today. Indeed, I would argue they are far MORE so, because we now have a much more centralised banking system than we did back then.

The only alternative to high interest rates, choking off growth and killing the consumer economy, is to let inflation run rampant. And that, eventually, will result in OILCON 2, where we have rapid demand destruction.

We still have not gotten to the worst part yet. This symphony of destruction has a particularly awful crescendo.

Consider: roughly 10-20% of the world’s energy supply is now choked off. Up until today, the only thing stopping a complete collapse of the energy markets, was the fact that the Saudis could still route about 7mbpd to Yanbu via a pipeline from their east to their west coast, and export their oil through the Red Sea. But now, the Houthis have joined in this war against Izzrael and the FUSA, and they could, in theory, shut off the Red Sea route too.

Which means the contraction in global oil supplies is not 8-11mbpd – it will be closer to 15mbpd.

This means the entire global oil market will go, within the space of about 2 months, from a situation where there was a glut of oil on the market, to one where oil is suddenly very scarce. That means US$200/bbl or more. This in turn means a bidding war between countries for oil.

Many of the governments that will require energy, are themselves highly overleveraged. Most Western countries have debt-to-GDP ratios of close to, or greater than, 100%. Their ability to raise money through sovereign debt issuance is limited, because they do not have the world’s reserve currency.

But they do hold Treasury bonds. Which they will then have to sell, to buy dollars, with which they can purchase oil.

This will likely spark a bidding war between nations for oil. It will also result in a run on Treasuries – collapsing their prices and spiking their yields. Worse still, if the Iranians make good on their rumoured threats to demand yuan in payment for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, this will result in a rapid selloff of the dollar, followed by an equally rapid increase in the value of the yuan – forcing the BoC to step in and push the yuan back down through interest rate cuts, since they do not particularly want to buy Treasuries anymore.

All of those dollars then have to go somewhere. The only place for them to go, logically speaking, is: back to the FUSA. And that, again, means inflation.

There is no way out of this trap. Ornj Boi, in a colossal fit of vanity and hubris, walked straight into it – when yutzes like me, who apparently have a lot more brain cells than his entire coterie of economic and military advisers, were screaming from the rooftops about what a terrible idea this entire venture was.

Drumpf’s fat narcissistic ass is in a very deep crack. Perhaps he knows it, which is why the increasingly frantic and absurd TROOFS coming from somewhere around the region of that same fundament, are so comically stupid now.

He is talking about negotiations with Iran, which the Iranians themselves flatly reject, because they know that the moment they try to negotiate with the Damn Yankees, their interlocutors will try to bomb them.

We now have news that a coalition of Middle Eastern and Asian nations are banding together to figure out a way to transport oil through the Strait of Hormuz, apparently under Iranian protection.

All of this serves to showcase two things:

First, the Iranians have now put a toll-gate across the Strait of Hormuz.

Second, they have served an effective eviction notice to the American Empire in the region.

Iran has proven the truth behind the statement of Paul-Muad’dib Atreides from the greatest sci-fi novel ever written. In that book, Paul forced the Padishah Emperor to step down and accede to his terms, because he, Paul, had the power, and the credible ability, to destroy the one thing that made humanlife in the entire Universe possible.

The Persians have proven, conclusively and beyond any shadow of doubt, that they have the same power. With it, they will bring the New Evil Empire to its knees.

If I were a betting man – and I am not – then I would put money on the Persians being able to make all of this happen. They already are. US bases in the region have been demolished. The Iranians, who are very clearly getting a lot of help from the Russians and Chinese, especially in the form of targeting intelligence, have succeeded in taking out America’s early-warning radar systems, air defence launchers, and now its EAWACS and refuelling aircraft on the ground.

Already, American power and prestige in the region looks the weakest and shakiest it has ever been. America is facing not only utter humiliation, but a cataclysmic strategic defeat – not merely a setback, but a true defeat, of the kind it has never seen in its entire history.

Vietnam was a defeat, but it happened on the other side of the world and did not affect the American heartland. Iraq was a defeat, but, again, it happened in a country most Americans do not care about, and could be “messaged” into a stalemate. Same with Afghanistan, Ukraine, Yemen, and a bunch of other vanity projects of the dying American Empire.

But there is no way to disguise this catastrophe – not with petrol prices soaring at the pumps, food and fuel becoming scarce and costly, power cuts becoming a daily reality for citizens of the West, and living standards plummeting for large parts of the population to the level of, say, SOUTH AFRICA (post-Mandela, obviously).

And ALL OF THIS was entirely avoidable.

That fact is what makes this entire crisis so utterly infuriating. If the FUSA had simply stayed the course and tried to engage with Iran on the basis that it is a rational actor – which the evidence clearly shows it actually is – then NONE of what I have described above, would have happened.

All Angry Short Fat Trump had to do, was to tell a bunch of crazy uppity Yids to sit the phuck down and shut the phuck up, and sit down and talk with the Persians in good faith. He should have realised he was dealing with a civilisation-state – one of a very few around the world, like Russia, India, and China, and one that actually has the ability to hit back hard, unlike all of America’s recent foes.

If he had listened to the likes of us, America could have avoided a disaster, and the world could have avoided a global supply-chain, food, energy, and electricity collapse.

Now, though, we will ALL pay the price of the hubris and insanity of a bunch of crazy Jews, who seem to think that blowing up the entire Middle East, so that 7 million of them can dominate hundreds of millions of others, is a good idea.

May God have mercy on us all.