There are a few basic facts about neoclowns which we all need to understand and appreciate. First, they are essentially unreconstructed Trotskyites of (((a certain ethnicity))). Second. in terms of educational background, they tend to flock toward fluffy, soft, and undemanding subjects like history, international relations, sociology, and economics – which, at least in the way they are taught in the USSA, are totally devoid of real useful content and mathematical analysis of anything.

And, third, because of these things, they are COMPLETELY AND TOTALLY divorced from reality.

With very, very few exceptions, these people could not tell you how to change a tire if you held a gun to their heads. They have zero non-academic or non-government real-world experience. Their entire world consists of fantastical ideas about how things should work. They are the true “intellectuals yet idiots“, for whom the rest of us have such contempt.

When it comes to war, in particular, the amount of bullshit they believe in is genuinely staggering. Neoclowns seem to generate a self-delusion field of truly BIBLICAL proportions, and they suck in people who really ought to know a damned sight better.

Words of the “Wise”

We may find one such example of pure fantasy in the latest writings of Col. Sir Richard Kemp in The Daily Telegraph, a particularly disreputable rag in PommieBastardLande which no longer even qualifies for the relatively dignified label of toilet-paper substitute. Here is how Col. Kemp started out:

Not, it must be said, a particularly promising beginning.

Oh, but wait! It gets worse!!!:

Kyiv is openly preparing its own major thrust against Russian ground forces in the spring. Vadym Skibitsky, Ukraine’s deputy military intelligence chief, said this week that this counter-offensive will aim to “drive a wedge” between Crimea and the Russian mainland. The Ukrainians are determined to, in his words, “liberate all occupied territories – including Crimea”.

Now, General Ben Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe, has devised a strategy he believes would not only enable Ukraine to retake Crimea, but would precipitate a total Russian military implosion.

His suggestion is as follows: isolate the peninsula by precision strikes against the two land routes connecting it with Russian territory – the Kerch bridge and the corridor that runs along the Azov sea. Then follow up with a large-scale armoured drive towards the Azov, penetrating Russian defences north of Crimea, bringing rocket and artillery systems into closer range. Russian air, ground and naval forces in the peninsula would then be reduced by precision strike and bombardment, until the point when Ukrainian forces could launch a ground offensive along the Perekop Isthmus and into Crimea.

This concerted attack against the peninsula – isolating it, neutralising and inflicting severe damage against its military infrastructure by long range strikes – would be a major blow for Russian morale. In the absence of decisive battlefield success elsewhere, it would represent a defeat for Moscow that it could not disguise, and could lead to collapse of Russian forces in the field and even to Putin’s downfall.

This… really isn’t going well at all.

Talking Heads

Before I continue, I should in good faith point out that a number of very well-informed commentators have taken this particular article, and ripped it to shreds. Here is Alexander Mercouris‘s very measured takedown – the embedded video starts right at the moment he begins discussing the article, so you don’t have to wade through the first bit if you don’t want to:

Then there is Grandpa Grumpuss, who absolutely did not hold back in his withering contempt for so-called “experts” on Russia, and tore apart this article like a cat attacking tissue paper:

Which leads one to ask:

Who exactly is this Col. Sir Richard Kemp???

Not Your Typical Asshat

His biography is that of a true war hero. Thirty years of honourable service in Her Majesty’s British Army. Eight tours in Northern Ireland during “The Troubles”. Distinguished fighting during Operation Desert Storm. Multiple tours in Bosnia in the mid-1990s, and at least four tours in Afghanistan and Iraq. Awards for bravery, leadership, and being wounded in action. A consistent record of opposing MUH DUVERSUHTEEEEEEZ! in the Armed Forces, because he (very sensibly) argues this would reduce overall effectiveness.

So clearly, this is a man who understands war, at least at the tactical level, very well indeed. He has fought it, shoulder to shoulder with Americans, Bosnians, Iraqis, Afghanis, and many others. He fought in armoured combat as part of the Desert Rats, so he should, in theory, understand tank operations quite well.

And yet… for all of his qualifications, for all of his expertise, he then goes and writes things like THIS:

I agree that this is desirable. But – as so often in this war – without boosting our support, it is unachievable. Even this more limited operation would demand massively increased Western assistance, including many more tanks than have been promised, much larger quantities of ammunition, as well as long-range missile systems which so far have not been provided at all. This additional support would have to be sustained and that would mean stepping up defence industrial production in the US and Europe beyond what has been contemplated so far in this war.

To achieve this is a question of political will on the Continent, one that remains shaky. There are signs now of European leaders pushing Zelensky towards peace talks with Russia rather than the defeat of Moscow’s invasion. That was the message delivered directly to the Ukrainian leader in Paris recently by President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Both their countries have said they will not be providing new types of weapons this year. All talk at the moment is of future security assistance and guarantees to Ukraine from Nato after the war ends, as a means of pressuring Zelensky into an accommodation.

Putin recognises this wavering of Western support for Ukrainian offensive action and will be encouraged to press forward his own offensive to maximise territorial gains in advance of any potential negotiations. He is unlikely to achieve his full objectives on the battlefield, but neither will he willingly surrender what he now holds, which is significantly greater Ukrainian territory than when the war began.

With Ukraine denied the resources for decisive success, the scene would then be set for a period of relative quiet followed by the next round of Russian aggression. General Hodges’s plan for Crimea may be overly optimistic, but he is absolutely right to suggest that long-term peace is contingent on Russian battlefield defeat. The scenario that Nato leaders are now planning equals the vanquishment of the West and the emboldenment of both Russia and China. It is a crying shame when the possibility of a total Russian collapse remains within reach.

Those are four paragraphs of unbelievable idiocy, from a man who really ought to know FAR better.

The Actual Evidence from 404 – Country Not Found

To understand why he is wrong, you merely have to look at a map. Here is the absolute latest most up-to-date map of the Banderastan War that I can find:

Has Col. Kemp looked at that map? Has he seen the satellite photos of the Russians entrenching all over Zaporozh’ye and Kherson regions, preparing thoroughly for any potential Banderite attack? Does he keep up with the news from the front lines, which shows Russian forces inexorably pressing west and south into Kharkov region?

Just today, the hohols announced they were evacuating women, children, and disabled people from Kupyansk – a town that the Russians abandoned during the Khreat Khokholite Kharkov Khounteroffensive last year, because they simply did not have sufficient troops to defend that front. They held that town for a week or so, as I recall, then pulled out, after bleeding the Ukrainians dry. And now they are coming back to retake Kupyansk, and onward from there to Krasnyi Liman, Izyum, and Balakleya – and hopefully, onward from there to Kharkov itself.

In the Jaws of a Nutcracker

Has Col. Kemp glanced at the situation in Bakhmut/Artyomovsk, where the average life expectancy for hohols sent to the very front lines is now apparently about FOUR HOURS? Has he looked at the map below, which shows the jaws of a huge Russian nutcracker closing around Artyomovsk, potentially sealing thousands of Ukrainian troops into a cauldron from which there will be no escape?

And what about the situations in Avdeevka and Ugledar – has he checked on those recently? Has he tried to understand just how stretched and overburdened the Banderites are all over a thousand-kilometre front, where they keep losing ground slowly and steadily every day?

Did he check in on Ukrainian artillery stocks recently? Did he bother to realise that Ukraine’s artillery output has diminished substantially over the past couple of months, from an average of 4-5K shells per day, to less than 2K shells per day? And did he happen to notice that Russian forces are firing off on average 20K shells per day, going as high as 60K shells on really hot days – and this has been a consistent rate of output since last summer?

Has Mr. Kemp ever troubled himself to talk with actual Russians, in Russia? Does he understand or realise that Putin’s approval rating in Russia is a SOLID 80%, and that support for the SMO is even higher? Does he comprehend that ordinary Russians fully believe this to be an existential war, central to Russia’s continued freedom and sovereignty, and are willing and ready to do whatever it takes to win?

The West is Running Out of Everything – Especially Time

Most importantly, has Col. Kemp bothered to look at Western inventories of arms and supplies to Ukraine?

Ukraine is not getting 300 tanks, 600 artillery pieces, 500 armoured fighting vehicles, as Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi demanded late last year in that now-infamous interview with The Economist (another neoclown rag that doesn’t even rise to the level of kitty-litter substitute nowadays). That level of equipment is far beyond the capacity of ALL of NATO to provide – including the USSA, which actually does have enough tanks, AFVs, and IFVs, at least, to ship over, if the US were to plunder its stores of Abrams, Bradleys, and Strykers. But it cannot do so without critically weakening its own fighting strength, to the point where the US Army literally will not be able to deploy more than 50K men GLOBALLY.

The European nations are in far worse situations. Britain’s military, which Col. Kemp served with loyalty and dedication for 30 years, would run out of ammunition in a single DAY of serious combat. The dumbass Kraut in charge of the German “Defence” Ministry these days, just admitted only today that Germany’s military cannot do its primary job, which is to defend Germany. The Baltic “tigers” have contributed close to HALF of their entire military budgets to Banderastan – and it has all come to nothing, because 404 is still failing.

All of this speaks to a growing catastrophe for 404. Europe cannot save Ukraine. The USSA will not send its sons and daughters to die in the slaughter-pens of Donbass for the sake of SLOBBER URINA!!!

How bad is that catastrophe? And what, then, is left?

Barrelling Toward Catastrophe

The neoclowns can see just as well as we can what the facts are on the ground. But, because they have so little ability to admit how wrong they are, they engage in this bizarre ritual of psychological projection, pushing their own failures and cock-ups onto the Russians.

You simply have to substitute “Ukraine” for “Russia”, and “Bellendsky” for “Putin”, into Col. Kemp’s article above, to get a highly accurate picture of reality on the ground in Banderastan.

It is Ukraine, not Russia, whose offensive actions have completely stalled. It is Ukraine, not Russia, which has suffered well over 150K dead and hundreds of thousands of wounded – while Russia has gotten away with less than 10% of those casualty counts. And it is Ukraine, not Russia, which is suffering from severe “ammunition hunger”.

Furthermore, Russia’s constant, immense, remorseless pressure on the Ukrainian lines is causing them to buckle and break. Bakhmut is in danger of being fully encircled within days. (Keep in mind, I made that same prediction before, months ago, and I was WAY off, so feel free to disregard this opinion.) Avdeevka is in a similar pickle – and so is Ugledar. This is NOT the picture of a healthy front line from which Ukraine can launch serious offensives.

The catastrophe, then, is truly horrendous – if you support Ukraine and NATO, which I very clearly do not. The destruction of Ukraine’s remaining military forces looms large on the horizon, because once the Russians crush Ukrainian nuts in those three key strongholds mentioned above, there is very little stopping the current Russian force from sweeping all the way to the Dnieper.

And this is BEFORE we get to the entry of at least another 200K Russian soldiers – freshly trained, fully equipped, ready for combat – into the fray, which at this point could happen anytime between April and June. Nobody knows exactly when it will happen – we just know they WILL enter the war.

So we come to the last, and most important, question of all:

What is next?

The answer is simple: direct, head-on confrontation between NATO and Russia.

Conclusion – A Losing War

This is the ONLY possible course of action left for the neoclowns. Keep in mind, these idiots have absolutely no capacity for self-reflection. They can never admit they are wrong. And they have no ability whatsoever to back off, because they have no reverse gear.

The analysis you get from people like Col. Kemp – who, I repeat, REALLY SHOULD KNOW BETTER – is what happens when you get neoclowns playing zero-sum games of Risk on pretend maps with zero real-world consequences. All of their moves are based on nothing but pure fantasy. It’s like they play Age of Empires on the easiest difficulty setting in their heads, and think this is how one fights real wars.

The problem facing the neoclowns, who have consistently and catastrophically miscalculated at every possible step, is that Ukraine had the only serious army in all of Europe capable of resisting Russia. Poland does not have a serious military. Nor does Romania. France, Germany, and the other continental European powers absolutely do not have anything approaching useful militaries that can fight true combined-arms warfare.

The only power that has any ability to really project force deep into the European continent, is the United States – and it cannot sustain that kind of war for very long. The Russians would suffer serious losses, in the tens of thousands, in the first few weeks of such a war – but after 3-4 weeks, the Russians would be able to turn around and sweep the entire European military off the map, because they can sustain a long-term conflict, but Europe and America cannot, at all.

And NATO and the US would suffer upwards of 40K dead, and probably 100K casualties, based on their own wargaming scenarios, in the first WEEK of such a war. Is America prepared for that kind of death rate? The neoclowns, being the vampiric GloboHomoPaedo Pharisatanists that they are, certainly would be – but would the average American?

The simple fact is, this is a war the West CANNOT WIN. They are up against a military power that has fought for its very survival for the better part of a THOUSAND YEARS, and which understands true combined-arms warfare better than literally anyone else.. NO ONE studies war to the level the Russians do, and no one in the world currently has the level of actual experience in real warfighting that the Russians now do.

Besides which, the Russians now very clearly have the Chinese with them. And that puts the world’s single most powerful manufacturing base at their backs. The Chinese ability to produce real things exceeds that of the US and the EU, COMBINED – while it is not currently fully geared to producing weapons of war, it has the ability to supply Russia with the intermediate and finished goods it may need in future, if the war should escalate. This combination of a commodities and a manufacturing superpower, means the death of Western hegemony.

The one thing we must all be aware of, and potentially fear, is escalation toward the nuclear threshold. I repeat, the West cannot win this war, at all. The only way to stop the Russians from achieving their objectives is to use nuclear weapons – and the Russians will not use them first, as it is not part of their doctrine. The Western neoclowns, on the other hand, have no such compunctions, and no such sense of responsibility or honour. They may well decide to go fully nuclear when they realise they have lost.

If we ever get to that point… may God have mercy on us all, because we will ALL be dead within minutes.