The question of casualties is one of the most vexing, and by far the most morbid, of the many oddities in the Banderastan War. The Ukrainians, and their mindless Western shills, insist that the Russians are losing unbelievable numbers of men, and are making essentially zero progress in the war.

When it comes to territory, they sort of have a point – the Russian military has moved at a painfully slow pace, especially when compared with the lightning-fast offensives of past wars, and of both wars in Iraq in particular, which Americans (incorrectly and very foolishly) use as the yardsticks for how quickly a military action should proceed.

Here I must point Most people use the term interchangeably to mean both dead AND wounded, OR just dead. They are categorically not the same thing. Throughout this piece, I will use the term, “casualties”, to refer to ANY AND ALL DEAD AND WOUNDED – including those wounded lightly enough to return to full health and duty. I will take pains to distinguish between my use of the term casualties, meaning “all dead and wounded”, and deaths, meaning… well, y’know.

Now, when it comes to casualties, and especially numbers of dead soldiers, the Ukrainians (and the Western jackals) make claims that seem almost unbelievable.

I have heard claims ranging as high as THREE MILLION dead and severely wounded Russians. Other claims put the numbers lower – around a million dead. Ornj Boi himself regularly claims that the Russians are losing tens of thousands of men every month – though, to be fair, he says the same about the Ukrainians, nowadays.

The most objective and reliable source we have on the subject is the Mediazona-BBC project, which as of this writing claims that the Russians have lost about 282,000 KIA that they can confirm through public databases, such as the Russian probate registry, funeral notices, and other such things. They further claim, through mathematical modelling, that it is highly probable that the Russians have lost around 352,000 KIA to date, since the start of the Special Military Operation on February 24 2022.

For their part, the Russians generally remain quite mum about Ukrainian casualties – and here I want to be clear what I mean about “casualties”. The best available data we have for the Russian view of the enemy’s losses, comes from the Russian Ministry of Defence, which maintains a daily running total of all casualties. Various websites maintain the same running tally in a convenient tabular format – most notably and usefully MSKVremya (quite literally, Moscow Time), which states that the Russians have counted about 1.9 million dead and wounded across the entire span of the SMO.

It is important to note that the Russians are highly conservative in their approach to casualties. They only count the numbers which they can actually confirm visually, or through enemy radio intercepts. If you read the MoD’s daily bulletins on their Telegram channel, you will see them use language like, “the enemy lost up to 340 troops”, or “200 enemy soldiers were neutralised”. These terms are a bit vague, and we have no equivalent to the Mediazona-BBC project looking at Ukrainian casualties, and especially at KIA.

So the question of casualties really was a bit of a crapshoot. It really depended on which side you wanted to believe. There was no truly objective analysis of what was going on – as far as I am concerned, the fact that the BBC is involved with the Mediazona project, undermines its objectivity immediately, and all you have to do is to look at who founded Mediazona, to realise that they are virulently anti-Russian to begin with.

This means that, for more than 4 years, there really has been no effective or useful way to measure either side’s casualty and KIA ratios.

Until now.

This is where one Alexander Grable comes in. He recently published an article in the Finnish National Defence University’s collection of articles and essays, in which he performs perhaps the most statistically rigorous and well-evidenced analysis of Russian and Ukrainian KIAs ever done up to this point.

You can watch the video presentation of his analysis here:

You can also see his presentation over at Ian Proud’s channel, where he comprehensively broke down the article he wrote, here:

Here is the Abominable Imbecile summary of the transcript from the presentation on Ian’s channel:

In this discussion, Alexander Grable outlines his research on casualty estimates in the Russia-Ukraine war, published by the Finnish National Defense University. His core points include:

• Grable validates Russian accounts by cross-referencing them against evidence from Ukrainian Telegram channels and official sources;
• He critiques Western open-source intelligence projects, such as Mediazona, by attempting to verify “confirmed” death reports against Russian state probate and notary registries;
• Rather than relying on speculative estimates, he utilises official “like-for-like” data, such as amputation rates and body exchange ratios, to establish a baseline for total losses;
• Grable corroborates his casualty analysis by examining verified increases in Russian ammunition production and deep-strike capabilities to show how firepower disparity influences attrition;
• Grable argues that popular “confirmed” casualty figures for Russia are significantly inflated and often cannot be corroborated through official state documentation;
• Grable finds that Ukrainian fatalities are significantly higher than those of the Russian forces;
• Russian military-industrial output, including missiles and drones, has scaled dramatically (up to 17-fold in some categories), while Ukraine faces increasing fiscal and logistical deficits;
• The war is fundamentally a conflict of attrition where Russia’s economic independence and industrial capacity provide a sustained advantage over Ukraine’s reliance on dwindling external financial aid;
• Grable concludes that continuing the war under current terms is not in Ukraine’s long-term interest, as the battlefield and economic “math” heavily favor the Russian side, leading to unsustainable human and economic costs for Ukraine;

Of course, this is from Goolag’s Gemini Abominable Imbecility, so it refuses to give proper numbers where they are due. I will provide them for you.

According to the numbers and data that Grable provides, the Russians have, to date, suffered between 35,000 and 90,000 (thereabouts) total KIA – again, keep in mind, THIS IS JUST KILLED IN ACTION – up to about mid-June 2024.

My honest opinion is that the 90,000 figure is too low. We know that the Russians lost around 15,000 men just taking Bakhmut – or Artyomovsk, as it is known today. Scott Ritter spoke a few years ago about going to Russia and speaking with battlefield commanders who lost over 7,000 men in a single offensive – and when he expressed shock at that number, those commanders responded and said, “yeah, but we killed over 25,000 of them”.

All we can say for sure is that the Mediazona-BBC estimates are no longer the floor of Russian KIA. They are the ceiling. And the true number is almost certainly MUCH LOWER than 350,000 dead, as Mediazona would have you believe.

How much lower? I do not honestly know. My gut feeling – and that is all it is, based on what I am seeing on the battlefronts and from the casualty data, and from the home front – is that the Russians have lost around 200,000 dead. They have probably suffered close to a million wounded – but about 93% of those survived with minimal injuries, and most returned either to active duty or to civilian life, unimpeded except for physical and mental scars.

The “93%” figure comes from Russia’s verifiable claims around its battlefield evacuation and medical capabilities. In this respect, there is little debate as to how good that is; the Russians have developed a very efficient and capable system for evacuating the wounded, except from the worst parts of the front lines. Their surgeons genuinely work wonders. I have personally seen Russian servicemen in Moscow who were wounded, but have returned to nearly full health.

Now we come to the rather more vexed question of Ukrainian KIA. And this is where things get really dicey. Grable’s own analysis indicates, based on rough proxy data, that the Ukrainians have lost at least half a million dead to date – ten times what their own crackhead coke-fiend of a leader says they have lost. Grable also quotes Alex Vershinin from the Royal United Services Institute, the PommieBastardLande think tank, which reckons the Ukies have suffered 769,000 KIA up to March 31 2025, and Grable says this is “a not unrealistic estimate”.

He is right. But that is far lower than any of the Russian data on Ukrainian losses we have seen – which, to remind you again, includes both dead AND wounded.

The one and only set of verifiable data points that we have, consists of the body exchanges between Ukrainians and Russians. There is simply no way to debate those numbers. And those exchanges are, these days, 10:1 in favour of the Russians.

They have been far more lopsided in the past. There were times, a year or two ago, when the Russians gave 40 or even 50 bodies back for every one that they received. The reason for this is very simple: the Ukrainian government does not want to pay death benefits to the families of the dead soldiers, so it refuses to take back the bodies of its own war dead. If they ever actually took back all those bodies, the national debt they have – which is now well over 100% of GDP – would explode by another 50%, at least.

We have other sources, though, which paint a truly apocalyptic picture on the Ukrainian side.

About a year ago, if memory serves, the Ukrainian general staff suffered a major data breach, in which Russian hackers leaked the names and ranks of about 1.7 million soldiers into the public domain, who were all KIA, deserters, or MIA – and the MIAs are almost certainly dead.

Today, Russian analysts like Andrei Martyanov and Stanislav Krapivnik argue that Ukraine has lost around 2.5 MILLION dead in this war.

Is this plausible?

Well, think about it:

The Russians have total dominance in artillery and air power. They have far larger drone outputs and can strike far deeper behind enemy lines than the Ukrainians can. They have total overmatch in long-range ballistic and hypersonic strike weapons.

Given that artillery kills a lot more people, in aggregate, than drones do, and given the vast preponderance and power of Russian artillery and MLRS systems, it is indeed plausible that Russians are simply slaughtering the Ukrainians whenever they concentrate troops.

The one and only area where the Ukrainians have any kind of equivalence, is in short-range FPV drones – but even then, the Russians have adapted and changed their tactics. They no longer use large groups of infantry to attack positions frontally. Instead, they infiltrate with small teams of two to five men, usually on motorcycles or quad bikes, to carve up enemy front lines and trenches, usually under artillery and drone support.

Ukrainian drone usage is the only reason why this war is moving so slowly, by the way. The Russians are very careful to preserve the lives of their men, which is why they use small-group infiltration tactics, not meat assaults. Indeed, with a couple of exceptions early on in the war, and quite contrary to the idiotic opinions of American “generals”, who really should know better, and who wouldn’t be allowed to command a company in the Russian army, they never really have done.

But drones cannot completely make up for manpower deficits. And we are now at the point where the Ukrainians are conscripting women, men over 60, cripples, and people with chronic diseases. This is not a joke – you can find the videos all over Telegram. They are horrifying and heartbreaking.

There is one particularly appalling recent video of men in their 60s, being given AK-47 rifles, and being told where to go; they shuffle along like zombies to that position. When they get to the front lines, there is no doubt that every last one of them will die in minutes.

You will find no such videos from the Russian side.

This is not hyperbole on my part. I make no secret whatsoever of my pro-Russian views, but Russia – unlike Ukraine – does not have military censorship of Telegram channels. There are no penalties for people putting pictures and videos of cemeteries onto Telegram. And you simply will not see the same kinds of videos about Russian cemeteries reaching across the horizon with fresh graves, that you do in Ukraine.

You also do not see videos of Russian recruitment officers pulling men off the streets and piling them into blacked-out vans, while their families scream and plead around them. There are no riots where citizens attack recruiting officers in Russia and try to burn down their centres. All of that exists in Ukraine – not in Russia.

And all of that speaks to a severe manpower crisis in Ukraine. We are observing the slow, terrible, catastrophic death of an entire nation.

The Ukrainians probably have indeed suffered 2-2.5 million dead at this point – that’s JUST DEAD. It does not include severely wounded. It does not include the millions more who are terribly traumatised with PTSD.

Nor does it account for the fact that Ukraine’s population, in the territories that are actually under Kiev’s control, is around 20 million – with a pensioner-to-worker ratio of about 1:1.

This means there are only about 10 million people – never mind men, just PEOPLE – under pension age in all of Ukraine. Of that, at least a million are so severely wounded and crippled that they will never function normally again. Perhaps another million have dreadful mental shocks from the horrors they witnessed on the front lines.

Put another way – Ukraine has perhaps another million or so fit, fighting-age men that it can feed into the meat-grinder, before it resorts to sending old men, boys, and women, to die horribly under the Russian guns.

That fact should give us all pause. The sheer horror of what Ukraine is being put through, has to sink in there.

For the fact is that NONE OF THIS WOULD BE HAPPENING, were it not for outright Western support and financing of the slaughter.

The collective West is enthusiastically and openly sending the entire remaining sperm bank of Ukraine – the whole remainder of what is left of the Ukrainian people – into the slaughterhouse. They are cheering it on.

This is DAEMONIC. It is SATANIC. It is EVIL BEYOND BELIEF.

And for what? To kill Russians?!?! That has certainly happened, but the Russians are killing between 10 and 20 Ukrainians for every one that they lose. And they have a population of 140 MILLION, with a reserve potential of over 10 million men. They can keep fighting at these loss ratios for the next twenty years if need be.

This horror is entirely of the West’s doing. And every single one of the idiots and morons proclaiming “Slava Ukraini!!!” in their X and Bluesky bios, every single one who wants this to continue, is participating in and partaking of this evil.

Every last one of them deserves to be dragged screaming in to Hell for what they have supported – no matter how good their intentions, no matter how much they might think they are standing up for the underdog against the tyrant Putler and the slavering Orcish hordes from the East. The plain FACT Is that every single one of them supports the outright GENOCIDE of an entire nation.

It sickens me that these people get away with such madness.

And, let me be very clear: I am not writing this as if the Russians are not losing people. Probably around 200,000 families have suffered tremendous bereavements. Probably around a million Russians have lost a father, a son, a husband, an uncle, a brother, a friend.

This is personal for me, which is why I write with such fury about those who support this war in the West. My closest contact in Russia attended the wedding of a friend last summer. Just this past week, my contact received news that the friend’s husband died in the SMO zone.

He was a good man, by all accounts – strong, noble, honourable, decent, kind. And he is now dead. He was married for less than a year. His widow will receive death benefits from the government, sure – but that will not bring her husband back. It will not give her that time back, which she should have spent with him.

My contact has spent the past two days putting together a montage of film and video for the dead soldier’s parents, celebrating his life. That is a measure of how the Russians show respect and love for their dead.

This summer, when I was in Moscow, I walked past a lovely church in the southern part of the city, and I saw a man standing outside chatting with his friends – with a missing left arm. He was clearly a veteran of the war.

I have seen other veterans on crutches and in wheelchairs. I have seen men missing fingers and limbs from my trips out there.

The Russians are paying in blood for the liberation of eastern Ukraine, and for the security of their country. They are doing so because the Western world refused for 30 years to take their security concerns seriously.

Now look at what it has cost us all. Look, count it, and – if you believe this slaughter is justified to stop “Russian expansionism” or some such nonsense – hang your head in shame.