It is very difficult, even for me, to watch the unfolding catastrophe in Israel dispassionately. The pictures and videos coming out of Gaza are horrific – lifeless bodies of children; a video of rescuers uncovering the dead bodies of a father clutching his daughter as they both died from an Israeli air strike; doctors desperately treating patients, only to discover their own relatives are among the slain; and so on. The killing is indiscriminate and senseless. The international community is, rightly, outraged by Israel’s flagrant violations of the Laws of War.

Those Laws are pretty clear about the distinctions between civilians and combatants. The latter are fair game – the former are not.

Yet… how does one actually figure out who is a civilian, and who is not, in an area of land controlled by an organisation that enjoys broad popular support, and whose avowed intention is to destroy the state of Israel?

It seems to me that a reasonable standard is: little children playing with dolls are not exactly likely to be terrorists. The Israeli military and civilian leadership evidently do not see things the same way. And so the slaughter will continue.

However, it cannot and will not continue indefinitely – because this is a war Israel CANNOT win.

That is not (entirely) the opinion of some uninformed hack. This is a numbers game. And if there is one thing in this world I understand (albeit somewhat poorly), it is numbers.

The Mathematics Are Determinate

Let us start with population, because those are relatively easy numbers to measure.

Take a look at Israel on a map. Then look at its total population. It has about 10 million people, give or take, of whom roughly 2 million are Israeli Arabs. The Israelis can, at a pinch, call up a reservist army of around half a million men under arms – though doing so would crater their economy pretty damn fast, and there are already signs that their present call-up is doing precisely that (though, keep in mind, Western economists are about as reliable as soothsayers who read animal entrails).

Historically speaking, a country begins to see catastrophic effects accumulate within its economy when it conscripts or mobilises 7% or more of its total available labour force. That is along the lines of what happened to Nazi Germany, after about 1943. Israel has already mobilised roughly 4% of its people, and will need to mobilise more if this crisis escalates (which it probably will).

Turning to the Pali-Walis – the Gaza Strip is an area of about 365 square kilometres (or 141 square miles, if you insist on using those nonsense units), with a population of up to 2.3 million. It has one of the highest population densities in the world. Hamas – or Hummus, as I rather prefer to call them – counts very roughly 50,000 fighters in their ranks, apparently.

In terms of pure numbers, sure, the Israelis have the edge – but Israel is notoriously casualty-averse, like most Westernised countries. The sight of a few thousand dead Israelis, when fighting against a much smaller opponent, and a non-state actor, to boot, is going to break the will of the population to fight for a long war.

All of that is before the deeply detrimental impacts of the war on the local economy. Israel is a relatively wealthy country, to be sure – when I visited it, I was quite amazed by how advanced the infrastructure and standard of living was. But Israel’s total GDP is only about US$560B, and like most Western economies, is overwhelmingly services-based.

With a labour force of about 4M, withdrawing roughly 400K reservists from that pool will crater it, HARD, in very short order.

Gaza, by contrast, effectively has no economy – as of 2020, its own people essentially admitted the economy had collapsed. Whatever economy it has, is essentially entirely dependent on Israel for literally everything.

That also means, however, that 2 million residents of Gaza have literally nothing to lose – whereas Israelis do.

Put simply, the Pali-Walis can endure far greater losses than Israel, for far longer, and under far worse conditions. That is not a war Israel can win.

Dude, Where’s My Ammo?!?

Then there is the question of ammunition and arms. If Israel’s stated objective is to raze Gaza to the ground, and then force the population of Gaza into tents in the Sinai Peninsula… well, that will require quite a bit of ammunition. Reducing 300Km2 to rubble, and then forcing 2M people to flee, is a function of ammunition and time.

And the hard reality is that Israel cannot produce anything like enough ammo on its own.

Consider: the Russians, in their Special Military Operation, fired off up to 60,000 rounds PER DAY of artillery shells. At peak performance, their Air Force flew up to 1,200 sorties in ONE DAY. And that was with Russia using perhaps 20-30% of its true total military power.

Israel can only dream of those kinds of numbers. There is NO Westernised military anywhere on Earth that can manage that sort of utilisation rate.

Moreover, Israel depends almost completely on the West to supply its artillery shells – and those shells are now in very short supply. The FUSA can barely produce 28K a month now – though it has a huge stockpile of dumb and smart bombs which it can supply to the Israeli Air Defence Forces. That artillery usage has to be split between Israel and Ukraine – and, although Israel is now the favoured child, it will still not get anything like enough artillery to do the job.

The Moral Level of War

Bear in mind, all of this is against an enemy that does not have the capacity to fight back at the same level. The IDF has F-16I fighter-bombers, F-35I “stealth” jets (aka Turducken Planes or Joint Strike Flying Pianos – though the Israelis, through some miracle, actually make theirs work), Merkava tanks, all manner of towed and self-propelled artillery, and hundreds of thousands of reservists armed with domestic and foreign guns, plus a substantial supply of ammunition.

Against that, Hummus has perhaps 50K fighters armed to the teeth, but with simple weapons, little or no body armour, and dense urban agglomerations for cover.

This is the fight of a giant against a teenager with a sling – and this time, Israel is Goliath. If you know your Bible, you know exactly how big a problem that is from a moral perspective.

Goliath in the Bible was a descendant of the Nephilim, the evil race of bastard demigods that ruled over Mankind in ages past. They were utterly depraved, wicked, and terrifying to behold.

Whether Israel likes it or not, that is the image the country now presents to the rest of the world – particularly to the Islamic world.

When viewed through the paradigm of 4th-Generation Warfare (4GW), Israel has already lost this war. Why? Because Israel has surrendered the moral level of war.

For some bizarre reason, the Israelis still cannot figure this out. They do not seem to understand that indiscriminately killing women and children – which is PRECISELY what they are doing in Gaza right now – will turn the opinion of all civilised peoples against them.

This graphic, right here, tells you just how badly the Israelis are mismanaging the optics:

The Israelis have killed more civilians – and FAR more children – in just 20 days, than Russia killed in Ukraine over 20 months. And it is worth pointing out that a substantial portion – perhaps the majority – of the slain civilians in Ukraine, died because of UKRAINIAN stupidity (something of a redundancy, these days) in positioning their military gear in civilian areas.

The plain fact is, Israel cannot claim to be “the most moral army in the world” – this is utter nonsense, and their statistically disproportionate reaction proves it. Never mind that Hummus routinely stages events to make the Israelis look guilty of war crimes, when in fact they are not. The FACT is that such propaganda works, and works very well. The entire non-Western world is horrified by what it sees in Israel right now, and is rapidly turning against the Israelis.

This is precisely what we observed in the recent UN General Assembly vote:

Now, you may consider the UN to be nothing more than a talk shop – and that is an accurate depiction. But, it DOES provide a very potent way to judge the global community’s views on the morality, or lack thereof, of various conflicts.

And what we see now is an increasingly isolated, desperate, and crazy West, going all-in to try to cover for an Israeli government that has observably and statistically overreacted in a truly colossal way against people without the capacity to fight back. The Global South – better thought of as the Global MAJORITY – is fed to the back teeth with Western hypocrisy and stupidity, and wants nothing more to do with it.

A Fustercluck of a Furball

The results of this Israeli overreaction are staggering in their implications.

One cannot overlook the religious aspect of this conflict – to do so would be to ignore a fundamental driving force in all of this madness. You have to understand the interactions between Islam and Judaism to realise just what a colossal cock-up the Israelis have committed here.

Consider that, back when His Most Illustrious, Noble, August, Benevolent, and Legendary Celestial Majesty, the God-Emperor of Mankind, Donaldus Triumphus Magnus Astra, the First of His Name, the Lion of Midnight, may the Lord bless him and preserve him, was POTUS, he brokered a truly landmark peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

That peace deal would have resulted in the normalisation of relations between the Saudis and Israel. This is astonishing, considering the Saudis – being guardians of Izzlamist doctrine and theology, as they claim – view Israel as the mortal enemy of Muslims everywhere. This is because of longstanding enmity between Mo’Lester the Paedophile Profit of the Religion of Pieces, and the Jews of Arabia. Mo’Lester had no problem slaughtering Jews, stealing their gold, raping their women, and generally treating them like absolute shit, and that standard of behaviour continues to be “normal” in Izzlam to this day.

Yet, the God-Emperor got the Saudis and Israel to look at normalising relations – and, buried deep down in the text of that treaty, was something about the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

The Abraham Accords essentially rendered the establishment of such a state, a dead letter. In one stroke, Israel had achieved through diplomacy what it never could through military means.

Yet, today, thanks to its wanton overreaction in killing Palestinian women and children, Israel has ensured that Palestinian statehood is the FIRST thing on the minds of the Saudis, and of every other Arab and Muslim nation in the nearby vicinity.

This is beyond stupid. Israel has now multiplied its enemies instead of limiting them – and all because it reacted from emotion, not reason.

The Prince of Persia and the Ottoman Sultan

The fact that Iran has now moved to align with the Saudis, Jordanians, Egyptians, Syrians, Lebanese, and Qataris, just makes things far worse. Israel did well for years to exploit the divisions between the Sunni Saudis and Shi’ite Persians – those divisions stretch back some 1,400 years, and they are unlikely to resolve themselves anytime soon.

Yet, thanks to the mediation efforts of the Chinese, in particular, the Saudis and the Iranians managed to normalise their relations with each other – and now, thanks to Israel, they have a new common enemy.

Israel is a small nation. It cannot afford to make enemies like these – especially not with the Iranians, who have strike missiles in abundance that can rain death and destruction down on Israel, and against which it has NO defence. Do not be deceived by Israeli and American propaganda on the subject – the Israeli-developed Iron Dome is a good system, to be sure, but it is NOT capable of intercepting supersonic cruise missiles. And the less said about American PATRIOT and THAAD systems, the better – the Banderastan War showed them for precisely what they are.

All of that is before we get to the moves by Turkiye to enter the conflict as well. The recent speech by Reccep Tayyip Erdogan before his people was a masterpiece of demagoguery, in which he made it very clear that Turkiye wants a Palestinian state and will move to protect the Palestinians themselves if Israel invades Gaza in full force.

The whole point of diplomacy and war is to LIMIT one’s enemies – not multiply them. In this regard, Israel has shown that it understands neither diplomacy nor war – which, to paraphrase Carl von Clausewitz, are nothing more than continuations of each other by other means.

The Man, the Myth…

We must say a word here about Benjamin Netanyahu, the once and again (and again, AND AGAIN) Prime Minister of Israel. I do not pretend to understand Israeli politics in the slightest, but I can understand that he is a political survivor of the first order. That means he is highly intelligent, probably amoral (at best), almost certainly a pathological liar, and yet an exceptionally gifted manager and leader.

Moreover, unlike ANY Western leader of the current age, Mr. Netanyahu understands what war actually means. He was wounded multiple times in combat during his military service as part of the elite Israeli commando unit, the Sayeret Matkal. His brother, Yonatan, was the only commando lost in Operation: THUNDERBOLT, the daring and hugely successful raid on Entebbe Airport. Mr. Netanyahu fought in the Yom Kippur War in 1973, and has experienced what it is to have comrades die in his arms.

Say what you will about Mr. Netanyahu – he is a brave man with real-world combat experience. He KNOWS what he is sending his nation’s young men to face – he has stared Death in the eyes himself. This is no George W. Bush or Barack Obama, sending men to fight and die for worthless causes while sitting comfortably at home.

That is why I do not agree with many of the caricatures of the man – some of them coming from figures I respect greatly, like Maj. Scott Ritter, who has a very real and personal hatred of Mr. Netanyahu from very bitter past experience – that he is some sort of bloodthirsty genocidal butcher. This picture does not fit with the evidence of the man’s actions.

I believe Prime Minister Netanyahu is a man of firm convictions yet no fixed morality, who is willing to do whatever it takes to get his way. I believe he wants to ensure the absolute and unquestioned supremacy of the Israeli state over the Palestinians, and he thinks (with considerable justification) that he can manipulate the FUSA’s leadership to go along with him.

However, until now, I never took him to be a fool, prone to reacting emotionally instead of rationally. I am truly perplexed by his complete lack of strategic thinking, and his total inability to understand the broader economic and geopolitical consequences of his folly. His over-the-top rhetoric, using Biblical references to link what Israel is doing to the extermination of the Amalekites commanded by the LORD in ages past, confounds me.

He doesn’t even get the Scriptural reference correct – if he did, he would realise very quickly that Saul, consecrated by men, failed to carry out God’s command to exterminate the sons of Amalek, and God then withdrew His favour from Saul, leaving him to suffer an extremely painful and ignominious death.

That parallel is too rich in meaning to ignore, and Mr. Netanyahu would do well to heed it.

Whose Land Is It Anyway?

In the broader picture, what is all of this death and destruction in aid of, exactly? The central issue here is that Israel’s leadership – and, increasingly, its people – believe they have the right to all of the land of ancient Palestine, because that is what God gave His chosen people.

That the Bible says this is not in dispute. Nor do I have terribly much patience for the argument that the international community can somehow magically enforce an old UNSC resolution to establish a Palestinian state within the pre-1967 borders – possession, as they say, is nine-tenths of the law, and the FACT is the Israelis own that land. Several hundred thousand of their people have settled on it. That land is Israel’s, whether anyone likes it or not.

On this subject of land belonging to one tribe or another, I have long found this dialogue from the superb film, Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee, to be quite useful:

As I have said a great many times, both here on the site and in posts on my Telegram channel, I care not one whit for the Palestinians. I have ZERO sympathy for them. These are people with whom Israel has tried, repeatedly, to make peace – and they have rejected peace proposals EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.

In 1993, Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin signed the Oslo Accords, which would give Palestinians their own state – plus and minus a few bits and pieces. Yasser Arafat shook Rabin’s hand in front of the whole world – and promptly ignored the agreement, launching bloody terrorist attacks into Israel repeatedly.

In 2000, at Camp David, Prime Minister Ehud Barak agreed to immensely painful concessions in the form of land swaps, Israeli withdrawals from Gaza and much of the West Bank, the partition of Jerusalem, and free passage between the two bits of a proposed Palestine. Arafat shook his hand – and promptly ignored the agreements and went on what President Clinton bitterly referred to as a “magic and mystery tour”.

In 2005, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon unilaterally pulled Israeli settlers out of Gaza, at immense political and personal cost, because he understood clearly that Israel simply could not sustain the forces required to patrol those settlements and keep them safe. He knew a wary peace at arm’s length was better than no peace at all. The Palestinians did not care, and never sought a negotiated peace.

The fundamental issue here is that Palestinians want a “right of return” – in essence, bringing their entire families from Jordan (which is roughly one-third Palestinian Arab) into Palestine, thereby crowding out the Israeli Jews. This was always a non-starter. Israel cannot accept such a scenario – nor, realistically, should it.

Furthermore, if you look at the demographics of Israel now, you will quickly realise that the fastest-growing segment of the population, by far, is the ultra-Orthodox and highly conservative Zionist segment, many of them descended from Mizrachi Jews – they are religious, not secular, and seek to realise a vision of Eretz Israel, the Greater Israel of Biblical times.

Put all of these factors together, and you will quickly understand: there can be no peace in Palestine. It is simply not possible.

Playing the Blame Game

So who is really morally right in Israel right now? The answer is, it is impossible to say.

It is absolutely true that Israel has routinely shot and killed unarmed Palestinian civilians, for no good reason. Yet, it is also unquestionably true that the Palis routinely stage false-flag events to make the Israelis look very bad.

It is absolutely true that Gaza is basically the world’s largest open-air prison – the Israelis supply it with power, water, and food, yes, but then, so does the government of New York to Riker’s Island, or California to San Quentin. Yet, it is also absolutely true that Israel is the largest employer, by far, of Gazan labour.

It is absolutely true that Israel has thoroughly broken the conditions of the original Partition of Palestine by building settlements in areas that were never supposed to be part of Israel, thereby making peace impossible. Yet it is also absolutely true that whenever Israel has made concessions to the Palis, and literally handed over to them intact economic infrastructure, the Pali-Walis have simply looted and destroyed it, because it was made by “those dirty JOOOOOS” (thereby proving, yet again, the stupidity and fecklessness of Arab culture).

Who is in the right here? It is literally impossible to say. I, personally, have always leaned toward the Israeli side of things, not least because I have no love at all for Izzlamists. Yet, even those who support Israel’s right to exist and defend itself – as I do – can see that what Israel is doing now, is simply WRONG. Unequivocally and completely WRONG.

Conclusion – The Tragic Final Act

All of these facts point to one inevitable and absolute reality:

There is no room for an Israeli and a Palestinian state to live side-by-side. One side must destroy the other. That is just the basic truth. And, the odds always were that Israel would perform an Endlosung on the Palis far sooner than the other way around.

Note, just because I understand this, does not mean I like it. Even though I have zero respect for the Palis, and very little for Arabs in general, I do not want to see more death and destruction.

Moreover, like most people of my generation, I am not interested in moralising Holocaustianity from Jews who think what happened to them was TEH WURSTEST THING EVARRRR!!! It wasn’t – get over yourselves. The rest of the world is tired of being lectured to about the Holocaust, and is fed up of Israeli arrogance and blind stupidity.

Just take a look at the Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations, acting like an utter clown:

And watch him get slapped down, in an astonishingly restrained manner, by none other than the Chinese Ambassador to the UN, who eviscerated him calmly and clinically:

Who the hell thought Gilad Erdan was a good diplomat?!?! He is an utter assclown, and he is pissing off the very people Israel NEEDS on its side.

So this raises the question: what should Israel have done, instead of its massive overreaction? Well, Alexander Mercouris had some very cogent thoughts to add on this subject, and I think he is right:

His words might sound to Israelis like needless blather, especially in light of the emotional shock of what happened on Oct 07. I understand that. Let us be clear – what Hummus did was evil and must be condemned.

Yet, by that same logic – what Israel is doing now, must also be condemned. We must not be hypocrites about this. The Russians and Chinese certainly are not.

In the end, the words of Our Beloved and Dreaded Supreme Dark Lord (PBUH) Voxemort the Most Malevolent and Terrible, are almost certainly terribly prescient:

Now, Israel’s right to exist is no more questionable than the USA’s right to exist. No reasonable, historically-literate individual can deny it. Everyone has to live somewhere. Every nation has the right to live somewhere.

And Israel has the right to defend itself. No question. But therein lies the problem. Israel has more than 11 percent of its Jewish population living on what are not recognized as Israel’s lands, and the Jewish nation has more than 50 percent of its people living in a diaspora scattered throughout lands that belong to other nations.

And all of those nations have the right to defend their lands too. Including the Palestinians. So, it’s always important to look very carefully at the question: who is defending what?

Very few outside the Muslim world supported the October 7 attacks by Hamas. Most of the world was rightly horrified by them. But everyone also understands that they didn’t happen in a vacuum or for no reason. Similarly, everyone understands that Israel has the right and the responsibility to respond to those attacks with military action against Hamas, as well as to utilize its military forces to rescue the hostages that are being held by Hamas.

However, that understanding does not go so far as to provide pre-approval for an unlimited military response. If it is true that the IDF has already killed 6,747 Palestinians in Gaza in reprisal, and for which the Gaza Health Ministry has provided evidence to the U.S. President, then it appears Israel is already approaching the limits of what most fair-minded people around the world are going to accept, especially in light of the frothing-mouthed genocidal rhetoric being thrown about by too many loud-mouthed US supporters of Israel. The correct Israeli response to the massive pro-Gaza support being demonstrated around the world should not be shock, rhetoric, and even more doubling down, but rather, sober contemplation of the likely consequences if what appears to be a path toward opening the second front of World War III is continued.

The reason people are telling writers like David Horovitz “Almost Certainly Again” is because for every violent action or forced compulsion, the potential for an opposite reaction that corresponds to, or exceeds, the magnitude of the original action is created. This is not to justify these hypothetical reactions, merely to explain their inevitability. And as long as there are Jews who refuse to stay in their lanes and live in their own lands, there will be reactions to their various provocations, large and small, no matter how eloquently those provocations are justified or rationalized or legalized or defined away.

Those who advocate genocide should not expect much in the way of sympathy from the rest of humanity when they find themselves under attack by anyone, for any reason. Which is why I’ll go Horovitz’s imagined interlocutors one step better and say: Absolutely Certainly Again. Because the only thing that a nation can reliably control over time is its own collective behavior, and the recent rhetoric of the Israeli government as well as that of the global diaspora tends to indicate that neither has learned the vital lesson of the Third Law of Motion as it applies to violence.

What the Israelis are doing, GUARANTEES the rest of the world will turn against them. They have already lost the Global Majority. And WHEN – not if, but WHEN – the next wave of global persecution comes up against them, they will have NO ONE to blame, but themselves.