Over the past week, we have seen a whole lot of noise about the supposed “peace deal” between the Epstein Coalition and Iran. The terms of that “pissdill”, to use a Russianism, are nothing short of devastating for the US-Izzraeli side that initiated a blatant act of unprovoked aggression.

There are a few fundamental points that we need to note before we proceed with any of this.

First, there are several different versions of the “pissdill” between Iran and the US. What you see below is not even an official release from the White House or the US government. It is a transcription of remarks delivered by an Administration official:

1. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. Final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.
2. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
3. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.
4. Immediately upon the signing of this MoU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
5. Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
6. The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
7. The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, i.e. IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] Board of Governors resolutions and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions-termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations, in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
8. The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material, pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be downblending on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
9. Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
10. The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MoU until the termination of sanctions, the U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
11. The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MoU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, either retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.
12. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MoU and the future compliance of the final deal.
13. After signing this MoU and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MoU and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
14. The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC [U.N. Security Council] resolution.

I then asked Perplexity to summarise the critical differences between the Iranian and American versions of the document. These differences are NOT trivial:

• Lebanon clause: The Iranian text reportedly says the parties will “guarantee” Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, while the U.S. text says they will “respect” it.
• Maritime traffic: Iran’s version says shipping should be maintained at pre-war levels “as determined by the Islamic Republic of Iran,” whereas the U.S. version says traffic will be progressively restored toward pre-war levels.
• Strait of Hormuz: The Iranian text says Tehran will discuss future administration of the strait with Oman and consult other Gulf states; the U.S. text says Iran will engage with Oman and other Gulf littoral states.
• Nuclear wording: Iran’s version says it will not “produce or acquire” nuclear weapons and refers to Iran’s “nuclear needs,” while the U.S. text says Iran will not “procure or develop” nuclear weapons and does not mention those needs.
• Energy exports: The Iranian text refers to crude oil, petrochemical products and derivatives, while the U.S. version uses crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, which is slightly narrower in wording.
• Status of the agreement: Some reporting says the Persian and English versions were both treated as official and fully corresponding, but other reporting highlights the wording differences above, so there is a tension between “same substance” and “different phrasing” in the public accounts.

So already we can see serious and fundamental differences between the US and Iran, which make any sort of true “pissdill” nearly impossible.

The second point to keep in mind is that – somewhat belying what I wrote above – this is not actually a pissdill!

It is simply a memorandum of understanding. And all that amounts to, is an agreement that says, “we are going to stop shooting at each other for a while, so we can sit down and talk like adults, under this specific set of conditions, until we can actually hammer out a true peace treaty”.

The hard reality is that negotiating a genuine, lasting, stable peace treaty is going to take a very long time. It cannot be done in 60 days – especially not given the fact that Israel is going to do everything it possibly can to break and sabotage this deal.

There is a very good reason for that behaviour on Israel’s part, because, third, and most importantly – there is simply no way to disguise the fact that this MoU is unquestionable evidence of a colossal tactical defeat of the Epstein Coalition.

Consider where the FUSA was before this war started. It had bases across the Middle East, unquestioned sway over the Gulf State monarchies, and totally free and open access to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the entire world’s energy used to pass before February 28 2026.

Today, it has suffered hundreds of casualties, at least 13 dead – and both numbers are almost surely a lie – hundreds of billions of dollars of damage to its bases, a further minimum of US$113B in war expenditures, a severely depleted arsenal of missiles and drones, and a shattered reputation as a military power.

It has totally lost the trust of the GCC states. Nobody in the region trusts or respects the US anymore. Everyone in the Middle East – Arab, Persian, Jew – thinks the Americans cannot be trusted to keep their word – which, objectively speaking, is true, and has been true for the better part of 50 years.

Nor is it possible to deny any longer the military rot and incompetence of the US. The Navy, which used to be once upon a time the finest naval force on Earth, has been utterly humiliated. Its greatest symbol of might and strength, the USS Gerald R. Ford, the lead ship of a new class of nuclear supercarrier, had to flee the region after suffering from clogged toilets, overflows of sewage, and a serious fire on board. Another aircraft carrier had to run away far out of Iranian missile range, once the Navy realised that the Iranians did, in fact, have the ability to reach out and touch them.

The US has, to repeat, suffered a very severe tactical defeat.

However, this is where the Iranian cheerleaders need to stop themselves from getting cocky.

Alexander Mercouris has, as usual, provided exceptionally clear-eyed analysis of the situation in his recent videos. As he stated not long after he got back from his visit to Russia, the Iranians have themselves climbed down quite a bit from their original demands at the start of the war. Their demands, back then, were clear: the US needed to abandon all of its bases near Iran, forswear any future aggression, stop funding Israel, return all stolen assets, and basically sign a declaration of unconditional surrender.

That was, to put it mildly, simply not going to happen.

However, as Mr. Mercouris also noted, the Iranians have essentially forced the Americans to come to terms with a gigantic failure of planning, operations, and tactics. They have withstood everything the US military could throw at them, and they have met their original success condition.

That condition was nothing more, and nothing less, than survival. The Iranian regime simply needed to survive.

In fact, it did rather more than that. The Iranians very obviously learned a great deal from their previous 12-Day War with Izzrael, and realised that they needed to strike back, hard, in a decentralised way, against the Israelis. They succeeded in doing precisely that in the very first day of the war. They also attacked American bases, and allies, across the region, thereby elevating the pain threshold far above what the US could endure. The theocratic Iranian regime itself survived without issues, smoothly transferring power from a set of previous slain leaders on to a new generation with no fuss.

Most importantly, though, as Mr. Mercouris went to great pains to point out, Iran is now at its “Minsk Moment”. This refers back to the Minsk Agreements of 2014 and 2015. Back then, the Russians, who supported the separatists in Donbass against the Euromaidan neo-Nazi government in Kiev, which the Americans and Europeans installed in a coup d’etat against the legitimately elected Yanukovych government in early 2014, thought they had clinched a real peace with the Western powers. Their support of the Donbass militias resulted in extremely heavy defeats of the Ukrainians at the disastrous (from a Ukrainian perspective) battles of Ilovaisk and Debal’tsevo. Each of the two Minsk Agreements followed those victories against a poorly-led, poorly-trained Ukrainian military, that had not yet been fully brought up to NATO standards.

The Russian government sat down with the French, Germans, Ukrainians, and Americans, and signed a multilateral agreement that required the federalisation of Ukraine and the preservation of rights and cultural values of ethnic Russians. The Russians even managed to get the Minsk II Agreement adopted as international law in the UN Security Council. They came away under the impression that the Western powers were negotiating in good faith, and would abide by the terms of the agreements.

They could not have been more wrong.

As both Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande admitted shortly after the outbreak of the Russian Special Military Operation in 2022, the Minsk Agreements were a ploy. None of the Western powers, and certainly none of the Ukrainian officials, who participated in that process, ever intended to abide by them. They all wanted to use the time granted by the Minsk Agreements to rearm and re-equip Ukraine, and that is precisely what they did. (This is also partly why Russia has had to move so slowly in Donbass – they are fighting against literally all of NATO combined, not just Ukraine, as I have said many times.)

The point of this is that the Iranians are at great risk of falling for a similar ploy.

Now, to their credit, the Iranians are saying, in public at least, that they do not trust the Americans, at all, and believe only actions, not words. That is very good. No one in his right mind should EVER trust ANYTHING uttered by an American official – not after seeing the way that President Trump stabbed his entire base in the back by launching this idiotic war.

But, if the Iranians get complacent, and drop their guard… that is exactly when the Izzies and Ameribros will strike.

Make no mistake, this is “peace in our time”, in the worst possible way. It is sort of the Munich Agreement in reverse. Historically minded readers will recognise the allusion, in which Prime Minister Chamberlain got off a plane and waved a piece of paper around, only to have the Germans turn on him and invade Poland. In the same way, the US and Israel ARE going to come back and attack Iran again. This is an absolute certainty.

The reason is simple:

The US has not yet tasted strategic defeat.

It has taken a severe tactical and operational beating, absolutely. There is no question about that. Its entire military arsenal has been shown to be totally impotent. It has no ability to bomb Iran into submission, and its carrier battle groups – the pride of its Navy – have been shown to be floating white elephants. Its bases in the region are in ruins, and its reputation of military competence and invincibility – which is utterly undeserved, as the US has never won a serious war against a real near-peer opponent in over 80 years – is shattered.

But it still has a presence in the region. In fact, it is still capable of attacking Iran from multiple directions. The Gulf states are furious with the Americans – but they are still vassals of the American Empire, for all that. They still depend utterly on the Americans for protection and financing.

So the Americans are not going anywhere – not yet. And they will not, until such time as they suffer a truly comprehensive, undeniable, absolute strategic defeat.

This will likely take the form of a complete demolition of the American military bases in the region, and a chasing out of the Americans by the locals. And that will not happen for a while yet – the American Empire is weakening, to be sure, but it is still extremely dangerous.

Iran has won – this round. It has not yet won the long war. Now, it is likely to be able to win that long war, because it has extremely powerful allies – China for its economy, Russia for its military. If the Iranians have the sense God gave a honey badger, they will maximise their cooperation with those allies, and use the time they have over the next 50 days or so, to rebuild their defences, ready themselves for the next round, and get their friends to help them build their military back up.

The problem is that the Iranians are a proud bunch. They have a civilisation going back at least 3,000 years, and they have repeatedly spawned some of the greatest empires in history. That sort of thing tends to go to one’s head, and Iranians to some extent still cannot get over the fact that they used to be the Big Swinging Dick in the region. Until they get over that mindset – and the added stupidity introduced by the inbred cousin-marrying retardation of the Religion of Pieces, no thanks to Mo’Lester the Paedophile Profit (Police and Lawsuits Be Upon Him) – they will not be able to progress with their efforts to build a modern and prosperous Iran.

Given enough time, they probably will get there. Anyone who has seen videos of the real Tehran, will be shocked by how clean, modern, and civilised it all is. They have an excellent metro system in that city – it is as good as what I have seen in Lisbon, Barcelona, or Istanbul, and I have personally used the metro in all three of those cities. These are a smart, tough, hardy people, and I respect them greatly for their wisdom, culture, and exquisite manners.

Americans would do well to consider following suit. America is no longer the sole Great Power in the world. A bit of humility, a bit of acceptance of American limitations and lack of power projection, would go a long way. And a recognition that Israel is a millstone around America’s neck, dragging it into the abyss in the Middle East, would be wise too.

But, for the moment, none of that is likely to happen. The Americans have shown a singular inability to learn from past mistakes, for reasons that I have never been fully able to understand. They still think America is the greatest, the most powerful, and the most free and independent. It is none of those things, and has not been for quite some time. Until and unless Americans stop lying to themselves about how weak their country actually is, and how badly the Iranians have defeated them – this time around – they will never learn, and they will never recalibrate.

The agony of deceit is that, when you lie to yourself constantly, and then you get stop-punched by reality, the pain is so severe that your brain responds in one of two ways. Either it learns from the failure and adjusts – or it goes straight into delusions and pretends the problem is not real.

I greatly fear that the American government, and to a great extent the people, are going to adopt the second option, not the first.