Gentlemen, has anyone here ever heard of a game called StarCraft? One or two of you, right? Yeah. It was (and is) KIND OF A BIG DEAL, because it revolutionised strategy gaming, all the way back in 1998, and essentially made Blizzard the powerhouse that it is today.
(I would like to admit, here and now, that I really stink at that game. I never made it past, I think, Protoss Mission 7 in Campaign mode. And that was WITH the official Blizzard strategy guide. What can I say – HALO really is more my thing.)
In that game, there is a well-known tactic known as the “Zerg Rush”. It amounts to creating a HUGE swarm of cheap, expendable Zerg units, and then sending them in a howling screeching flesh-tearing mob at whatever stands in their way. Rather like Brazilian army ants rampaging through a forest and tearing apart anything in their path, a Zerg Rush, when properly executed, seems very nearly unstoppable.
There are, however, ways to defeat a Zerg Rush.
If you are playing the Terrans or Protoss, the most effective and efficient way, as far as I am aware – and I am sure some nitnoid pro StarCraft player (yes, that is a real thing, especially in South Korea) will come along to correct me with the usual “AKSHUALLY…” routine – is to build heavily layered, overlapping defensive formations.
For the Terrans, building up lines of bunkers with Marines stationed in them, with Assault Tanks behind them, and Valkyries for air support behind them, at various strategic choke points, will usually result in a Zerg Rush turning into a LOT of red paint splattered all over the screen.
I bring all of this ridiculous geekery up to make a point about the Banderastan War – because what we are now observing, roughly halfway through the third month of the Khlearly Khatastrophic Khollapsing Khreat Khokholite Khumvee Khounteroffensive, is something like the scenario I just described above.
A Chronicle of Madness
The “counterploink”, as I call it, has been nothing short of a disaster for Ukraine. It started on June 4th this year, with the goal of pushing 12 brigades’ worth of troops – 9 NATO-trained and -equipped, 3 more Ukrainian-made – into breaching operations designed to crack Russian fortifications south of Orekhov, in the Zaporozh’ye region of what is now Novorossiya.
That counterploink has FAILED UTTERLY. Even the most execrable of Western presstitutes and whorenalists now openly admit this fact. Ukrainian troops have not managed to advance further than a few kilometres into the “crumple zone”, as Maj. Scott Ritter calls the territory in front of the first line of Russian defences. In fact, no Ukrainian sortie up to this point has managed to penetrate through to even that first line of the Russian network – and there are at least two more behind that one.
The web of Russian defences seen in the image above has actually grown significantly stronger since its publication. The Russians have created minefields of genuinely mind-bending density – you have to see them to believe it.
I do have to issue a warning here – watching the Clown News Network will give you brain cancer:
Looking at those mines is like looking at some spotty teenage oik’s pockmarked face – only much, much worse, because every one of those white dots is fully capable of exploding and taking out a man’s leg, or a HMMWV, or even, in many cases, an entire tank.
The vast graveyard of burned-out Western and Ukrainian equipment littering southern Zaporozh’ye region is silent testament to the effectiveness of the Russian defensive lines. And the fact that Ukrainian forces have failed utterly to create real breakthroughs – relentless Western whorenalist shilling and propaganda notwithstanding, at least in the early days of the counterploink – point to a simple truth about this war.
It is this: whenever Ukrainian forces meet fully prepared, supplied, trained, fortified, and professional Russian troops, they have NEVER managed to win a sustainable victory. That has been true throughout the entire conflict – one which, let us remind ourselves, is still, at least in the Russian mind, a Special Military Operation, and not a full-fledged war.
That is not to say the Ukrainians have made zero progress. They have taken a few villages her and there in the south – all of them evacuated, empty, and basically worthless, largely collections of huts and buildings, which Ukrainian and Russian troops fight over for cover, often while the artillery from both sides pounds the buildings into rubble.
Each time they make a big push and try to get through to a village, they take some ground – often at appalling cost – and then manage to hold it for just a day or two before a big Russian counterattack drives them out. It does not matter whether we are talking about the Zaporozh’ye front, or Klescheyevka in the Artyomovsk sector, or anywhere else – the same pattern repeats itself in Pyatikhatki, Staromayorsk, Rabotino, Berkhovka (near Artyomovsk), and, right now, Urozhaynoye.
In other words, the Ukrainians are fighting for territory that avails them very little, at extremely high cost, and then are unable to hold onto it. The Russians, meanwhile, are quite happy to let the Ukrainians waste their manpower and equipment in pointless and fruitless “meat assaults” against their entrenched positions, for their chosen strategy is very clear – grind their enemy down until Ukraine’s ability to put up any kind of fight is simply GONE.
Then, the Russian offensive will begin. Judging by the evidence in front of us, that will happen sooner rather than later – though, precisely when is anyone’s guess. Given virtually every prediction I have made about timings of offensives and such has been WRONG, I will not provide one here for the Russian push, except to note that Russian forces are already pushing through in the north, around Kupyansk, retaking the very territory they lost in the previous Khreat Khokholite Kharkov Khounteroffensive, nearly a year ago.
Bonfire of the Vanities
That picture you see up top is but one of many graveyards of broken, burned-out, abandoned Western-supplied vehicles across all of southern former-Banderastan. This begs the question: just how many vehicles HAS Ukraine lost, up to this point?
The Bear Necessities
The Russian MoD provides its own estimates. This is the latest one, as of Aug 13:
- 458 planes
- 246 helicopters
- 5,708 drones
- 429 ballistic missiles
- 11,274 tanks and other fighting vehicles
- 1,144 MLRS combat vehicles
- 5,862 field artillery and mortar guns
- 12,207 units of special military vehicles
No matter how you cut it, that is a COLOSSAL amount of twisted and burned-out heavy metal. And note the use of the Russian word, уничтожено. This means, “destroyed”, or “annihilated”.
The total tow-bill for the auto-mechanic there comes to 37,328 bits of kit ploinkified by Russian Orktillery.
And, bear in mind, that is the total for August 13th. As of this very writing, the Ukrainians are apparently sending yet more men and equipment to storm Rabotino – and are getting smashified, yet again. The reports from the front talk of “dozens” of burning vehicles, and “hundreds” of dead Ukrainian soldiers – surely exaggerated claims, yet there is no doubt the fighting on the Vremevka Salient is very, very hard.
Tank Lives Matter
Are those numbers anywhere near accurate, or even believable? After all, everyone lies during wartime. The khokhols lie flagrantly, at a level that, again, has to be seen to be believed.
This includes 2,234 tanks, 948 AFVs, 343 APCs, and assorted other equipment in the list.
The problem is, as Brian Berletic and Simplicius the Thinker have pointed out, that their numbers are simply not realistic, at all, given the numbers of vehicles the Russians fielded at the beginning of the SMO, and given what the Russians are able to field today.
The same site argues the Ukrainians have lost 4,154 vehicles in total. That, again, is almost certainly severely off, not least because the authors do not seem to account for the latest armour losses that we can see for ourselves across Twitter and Telegram.
Moreover, the Oryx project makes extensive use of publicly released Ukrainian drone footage to argue for extremely high Russian losses – and an audit of Oryx’s posted figures by Armchair Warlord indicated that Oryx’s figures are anywhere between 30% and 50% overstated for Russian losses.
Given the tendency among Ukrainians and their supporters for flagrantly lying about the numbers of Russian KIA and destroyed vehicles, I have no problem believing that.
Nor do those numbers correspond, at all, with an equally anti-Russian and hostile media project which tracks Russian military KIA – of which more later.
The Russians, surely, are lying too about Ukrainian losses in equipment – right?
Well, that rather depends on whom you believe, and on how you define specific vehicle classes. What one source calls an armoured vehicle, another might consider a specific sub-class. This means keeping track of equipment losses is very difficult indeed.
The LostArmour project, on the Russian side, keeps a running score of Ukrainian losses, with comprehensive photographic evidence and documentation. That documentation and database seem pretty thorough and wide-ranging, and provide verified losses by month.
Those numbers show confirmed total Ukrainian armoured vehicle losses at 1,414 at this point in time, which is, at first glance, roughly one-tenth of what the Russian MoD reports. So perhaps there is some serious inflation going on somewhere.
However, that is not the end of the story. If you look in more detail at what LostArmour publishes, they provide substantial details about Western armour by class. Looking at their register of lost Bradleys, for instance, you see Ukraine has lost 37 Bradleys destroyed – confirmed by photographs and video – and 7 more have been abandoned and severely damaged. They have the same for Leopards as well – at least 8 destroyed, two more damaged or abandoned.
LostArmour certainly does not tell the whole story, because it can only provide the pictures and evidence that come from drone footage released by the Russian MoD. That is NOT the true picture of Bradley losses – we know this for a fact, becaues after the FUSA supplied 99 M2-ODS Bradleys initially, it then turned around and supplied another several dozen – almost certainly to replace those lost and destroyed in the first wave of the counterploink.
Are Ukrainian equipment losses therefore as high as the MoD says? I have no idea. But, the evidence from the counterploink, of verified, clearly visible destroyed vehicles, supports MoD estimates of destroyed Bradleys and Leopards, as do the figures of replacement vehicles provided by the West.
So Much for German Efficiency…
There is another dimension we must consider to figure out whether Russian loss estimates are remotely realistic. We must add up pre-SMO stocks of Ukrainian equipment against Western donations and supplements.
The Kiel Institute is a German think-tank, which runs, among other things, the Ukraine Support Tracker project. This provides a data set that anyone can download and examine for information about Western support for Banderastan.
If you look into that data, you will find that the West has donated, as of the last publication date (July 06, 2023):
- 757 main battle tanks
- 89 MLRS
- At least 5,489 other armoured vehicles of various types
To be clear, I arrived at these numbers by filtering for specific sub-types of items in Col K of the latest data set. I do not claim my numbers are fully accurate, but that is just what the data tell us.
You have to add this information to pre-SMO data about how much “stuff” 404 had in stock. Here, again, one runs into A LOT of problems with the data.
Global Firepower reckons the Ukies had 1,890 tanks of various types available back before late February 2022. The same source indicates 647 MLRS systems, and a (pretty huge) collection of 37,000 armoured vehicles of various types. Both the tanks and armour were gifts from the late, unmourned USSR.
Military Watch Magazine provides a Force Index that is, in some ways, more detailed and useful. It points out that Ukraine had 100 T-72 tanks of various types and clades, and 700 old T-64s – none of which were particularly modern, especially when compared with the latest T-72B3M variants the Russians use.
Curiously, the MWMFI fails to mention the Ukrainian inventory of T-80 tanks – the Malyshev factory for that class existed in Ukraine and remained in 404’s possession after independence. They were some of the most advanced tanks in the world, for their time, but the Ukies, inevitably, did nothing with them, other than trying to “modernise” them to a new T-84 spec. (They tried to sell them to the Thais, and failed, thanks to their own endless corruption and malfeasance.) Most of their T-80s were in storage when the SMO began, and as far as I know, most of those have since been destroyed or captured by the Russians.
The same MWMFI source tells us Ukraine had:
- 340 rocket artillery (MLRS)
- 520 field artillery
- 600 SPGs
- 1,800 armoured fighting vehicles
You have to cross-reference this against what Global Firepower says, and that is really not easy. Just looking at the numbers above, we see significant discrepancies between what GF considers an “armoured vehicle” (with 37K of those for Ukraine), and what MWMFI counts.
Which number do we take? Again, it depends on how you define things.
What all of this numerical numbskullery tells us is, the Russian figures are at least plausible, but it REALLY depends on how you interpret the data, where you get it from, and who is counting what.
Suffice to say, this does NOT make anyone’s job very easy.
However, given the data and evidence I have seen throughout the war, which I share extensively on Telegram, I will say this:
From what I have seen, the Russian MoD actually tends to be conservative in its estimate of losses. That is just my opinion, obviously, and you are free to reject it as you see fit, but that is certainly what I have observed.
Blood and Iron
But wait, it gets worse still! We have not even begun discussing the losses in Ukrainian manpower to date.
This, again, is a subject of considerable controversy. The Russian MoD argues the VSU lost around 21,000 dead in June and July, EACH, as the Ukrainian counterploink reached its zenith, with a total of 43K dead by end of July.
Based on those trends, the Ukrainans have lost 50,000 men dead by now, across the entire counterploink – never mind the rest of the SMO.
Again, is this believable? Well, the Russian MoD recently clarified, quite forcefully in fact, that its figures DO NOT include WIA or MIA – when they say “destroyed”, they really do mean DESTROYED.
That is to say, dead. Kicked the bucket, Turning up daises. Planting turnips. On their way to Valhalla. Totally unresponsive. Ended their air addiction. Turned to worm food. Take your pick as to the metaphor – they are all valid and accurate.
The Russians further claim, from November 2022 to July 17 2023, a total of 115K dead. This picture comes from Grandpa Grumpuss, and despite my best efforts, I have been unable to find the source for this image on the Russian internet. (Granted, my Russian is pretty piddling, so I cannot claim to be very good at using Yandex.)
Keep in mind, this is AFTER Defence Minister Shoigu announced a total of about 61K KIA on the Ukrainian side back in mid-September 2022.
Add back that 61K to the number agove, plus the 30K remainder for the dead claimed by the Russian MoD up until July 31 during the counterploink, and we arrive at, give or take, about 205K Ukrainian dead thus far.
To be clear, this does not account for the 80K or so MIA that Ukraine notoriously refuses to count among its losses – because, if they did, they would have to pay out benefits to the families, which the Ukrainian government has no desire to do, and no intention whatsoever of doing.
Again, we must ask: can we trust these numbers? They seem shockingly high, and yet they are lower than my own rough guess of between 300-350K dead on the Ukrainian side by this point.
In the first year of the SMO, Western presstitutes and whorenalists – who by this point thoroughly deserve expedited field courts-martial for lies, treason,and other capital crimes – mindlessly repeated Ukrainian claims about horrendous Russian losses. But, slowly, the truth started to emerge.
In late November 2022, Ursula von der Lugen – that’s my name for the gynaecologist pretending to be an actual leader on the world stage – accidentally let the cat out of the bag when she admitted that “over 100,000 Ukrainian military officers have been killed so far”:
That was a fairly obvious slip of the tongue – LostArmour, for example, confirms only 6,502 dead NCOs and officers of the VSU, based directly on confirmed open-source data taken from the office of Ukraine’s “President”, Bellendsky of Slava Cocaini. (Most armies have an officer-to-enlisted ratio of 1:10 or 1:8, thereabouts, so if the Gyno’s estimate was actually accurate, that would imply about a million dead thus far – which I do not believe is the case.)
By mid-March of this year, even Politico, the fake news outlet that is essentially a mouthpiece for the American Deep State, reported that US officials estimate over 100,000 dead on the Ukrainian side.
That, therefore, is the absolute minimum level of KIA sustained by the Ukrainians – 100K. Keep in mind, this was back in March of 2023, and the numbers have gotten SUBSTANTIALLY worse since then.
The neoclown skinsuit rag, The Economist – which used to be a respectable outfit, once upon a time, back before about 2003 or so – tacitly admitted just how bad things are with the counterploink in an article from a week ago, in which the author wrote the following:
So many people have been killed in the war that in Lviv, in western Ukraine, the latest victims are displacing the dead from wars past. On August 4th, Vitaly Chekovsky’s family looked on sadly as he was buried with two comrades, in a military section of the city’s historic Lychakiv cemetery. The sandy earth where they buried him was soft and loose. Until only weeks ago his grave had been the resting place of someone else […]
The numbers of war dead are a secret in Ukraine, but it is possible to get an impression of the scale by visiting the rapidly expanding military cemeteries that feature in every town and city. At the Lychakiv cemetery, says Oleksandr Dmytriv, its director, Mr Chekovksy was the 507th to be buried since the invasion began on February 24th, 2022. At first the dead were buried in another part of the cemetery, but space quickly ran out, so the cemetery turned instead to a grassy slope where a war memorial had been built in the 1970s, while Ukraine was still part of the Soviet Union. As the rows of graves marched up the hill, the gravediggers unexpectedly found skeletons.
This is an increasingly common story in Ukraine, and despite the best efforts of the authorities to suppress the truth, pictures continue to show up every day on Telegram, showing hideous losses and cemeteries full of fresh graves, packed to overflowing (quite literally).
We also have a recent Whore Street Journal report – another neoclown rag, which once sadly used to be great – estimating between 20K and 50K Ukrainians have lost at least one limb since the outbreak of hostilities. This number is almost certainly a fraction of the true total, as the article itself admits.
Up until this point, Ukraine has resolutely maintained the nonsensical view that it has sustained perhaps 10-13K KIA, and the Russians have sustained well over 200K. The meme going around on Telegram is that when Ukrainians talk about Russian losses, they are actually admitting their own, and it is difficult to escape that conclusion.
Nobody on the Ukrainian side actually wants to admit the total number of war dead – not least because, if they did admit it, the numbers would immediately bankrupt Bankovaya, due to the cost of payments to the bereaved families. But we can gather a couple of clues from Ukrainian sources.
First, a Ukrainian named Taras Chmut, who runs a charity looking after Ukie combat veterans, claimed there could be as many as 5 million Ukrainian veterans by the time the SMO ends. We can corroborate this number against what the Ukie gubmint itself says. Yulia Laputina, head of Ukraine’s Veterans Affairs Ministry, stated she expects no less than 4 million veterans by the time the conflict ends – an eight-fold increase over the 500K or so men who held veteran status in February 2022.
This, combined with the original pre-SMO manpower estimates of between 500K (Global Firepower) and 1.19M (Military Watch Magazine Force Index), indicates an increase of between three and five times in the manpower pool of the VSU.
That, in turn, means the original Ukrainian military has effectively been destroyed and replaced at least three times over by now – because we are not seeing three to five times as many Ukrainian soldiers on the front today as we did a year ago.
Taking the KIA estimate above of 100K as the bare minimum, and factoring in the eight-fold increase in veterans, the 4 (official) waves of mobilisation (really more like 11 at this point), and some of the leaks which (apparently) originate from Ukrainian channels like Rezident, Strana, Trukha, UkrLeaks, and others, we arrive at a range of Ukrainian war dead of somewhere between 250K and 500K.
Note, this is all before we even get to the well-known reports, by now, from various battalion and brigade staffers, of the need to replace their personnel two or three times over. This is not new – I have seen this story repeatedly over the past 18 months in my Telegram feed, and increasingly so of late, in which Ukrainian officers admit their units have been mauled so badly that their people have been replaced three times over. And with each new replacement, the quality of the troops degrades ever further, to the point where today, the new recruits have no fight in them, no ability even to carry weapons, and no hope of responding appropriately in combat.
By no means do I disparage or insult Ukrainian soldiers here. The average khokhol soldier is brave, tough, and capable – these are Slavs, after all, a people that have been at war almost continuously for over a thousand years. They know how to fight. The Russians themselves profess admiration and respect for their Ukrainian cousins – they say they are practically fighting themselves.
Now this is where things get pretty interesting. Quite a few recent Russian articles from various voenkors (war correspondents) have appeared on Telegram in recent days and weeks, indicating a catastrophe unfolding in Ukraine, the likes of which Europe has not seen since the end of WWII.
Ruslan Tatarinov, a correspondent for Komsomolskaya Pravda, claims to have been counting Ukrainian losses since June 2022. He reckons the Ukrainians have 280K dead by this point, by counting obituaries and official announcements at the local level. Keep in mind, though, this is Komsomolskaya Pravda, which Grandpa Grumpuss has repeatedly trashed as essentially a Russian tabloid.
We also recently saw a very interesting post from a Telegram channel called Intel Republic, which I suspect is one that Col. Douglas Macgregor looks at, along with others. They posted up satellite photos of graveyards expanding in Ukraine on Aug 02, and found that, in 7 large urban cemeteries across the biggest cities in Ukraine, the number of graves per year had quadrupled – from 30K to 120K burials, in one year.
Using pre-SMO mortality statistics, they concluded the Ukies have buried between 350K and 400K dead.
A Russian article in Vesti notes that cellular network operators in Ukraine have seen over 6.6M SIM cards go “dead” (i.e. unused) since the end of 2021, and a million more have gone dark from Jan to May 2023. Obviously, this does not correlate 1:1 with dead people – many of those SIM cards undoubtedly belonged to Ukrainians who fled to the West, and will not return. But many of those SIM cards do belong to Ukrainian servicemen who are now unquestionably dead.
Based on this information – using actual published obituaries, satellite images of graveyards, publicly available photos of burial ceremonies, and such – the number of Ukrainian KIA, according to the Russian side, is indeed somewhere between 250K and 400K by this point.
This is the range given by Armchair Warlord as well, based on all of the following:
- Population surveys
- Obituary counts on social media
- Cemetery construction
- Amputation disclosures
- Older, inadvertent official disclosures
- Endless conscription but no army growth
It’s all completely internally consistent, pointing to the same approximate number of casualties in the 2-400k range. This is exactly what you would expect if that was in fact the case – all these secondary indicators are consistent with each other and there is no countervailing data besides the obvious lies of Ukrainian officials.
No matter where you look, the results are catastrophic.
The Wardog’s Coin
What about Russian war dead? If we are going to go to all of this trouble to try to figure out a rough range of Ukrainian war dead, what, then, are we to do about the Russian side?
Well, the first place to look is the usual BBC-Mediazona project, which continues to tally up Russian war dead. As of this publication, that number sits at just a shade over 30,000 KIA on the Russian side.
The problem here is, the Bullshit Broadcasting Company and Mediazona both insist this is too low, and reckon the number is closer to 47K Russian war dead under the age of 50, as of May this year. They could be right.
However, there is good reason to believe the lower end of the estimate is more accurate. We can infer this, as Simplicius the Thinker did, from a recent speech by one Gen. Mikhail Yuryevich Teplinsky, all-around badass-in-chief of the Russian paratroopers, the VDV (Воздушно-Десантные Войска), on the day of the VDV’s anniversary, in which he mentioned roughly 8.5K VDV members had been wounded in hostilities thus far. Assuming, as Simplicius the Thinker said, a 2:1 or 3:1 WIA:KIA ratio, this indicates a total number of VDV KIA at between 2K and 4K.
This is rather interesting, because the BBC-Mediazona figures confirm 1.6K verified VDV deaths. Which means the Russians are actually reporting their own figures – when they DO report them – fairly accurately and honestly.
That, in turn, means the total number of Russian war dead is somewhere in the range of 30-40K – and not much higher than this, if at all.
This also indicates the Russians are dishing out death at a rate of 4:1 to 10:1 on the front lines – which, again, corresponds precisely with what we are actually seeing in terms of the drone footage, the front-line reports, and OSINT.
It is vital to note here that, while it is easy to see clear evidence of immense cemeteries overflowing with Ukrainian dead, no such analogues exist for the Russian side. This is hardly due to censorship – unlike in the West, and certainly unlike Ukraine, the Russians do, for the most part, have freedom of the press (with some very specific exceptions). If people post pictures of cemeteries online in Telegram, they are not rounded up and jailed for it.
Yet we do not see from Russia anything like the heartbreaking pictures out of Ukraine. There is evidence of expanding cemeteries (warning: Clown News Network links may result in c ontracting herpegonasyphilaids) particularly for the Wagner forces who fought in Bakhmut – that is true. I have personally seen videos of large cemeteries in Yekaterinburg and Krasnodar – which are on quite different ends of Russia – for Wagner troops, and they are indeed full. But we are talking about thousands, not tens or hundreds of thousands, of dead.
The Wagner forces did take very heavy casualties, as we now know – in the many thousands. It turns out they wasted a lot of men in pointless storm assaults against fortified positions, took heavy losses, and then turned to prison convicts to pad out their numbers – which they proceeded to throw away in seriously bloody assaults as well. It turns out that Prigozhin’s boys were not quite as good as many – including myself – thought they were.
Precisely none of that changes one very simple fact: Russian deaths and casualties are a full order of magnitude lower than those of Ukraine.
Fate of the Counterploink
The counterploink is going to fail – in fact, it already has. The “elite” 47th Brigade, originally handed the M2 Bradleys at the start of the counterploink, got smashed (or, as Khabib Nurmagomedov might say, smeshed) so hard they had to withdraw and rebuild after just a few days of fighting. According to Western presstitutes like David the Ass, Ukraine is now deploying its final reserves, in the form of the 82nd Brigade, armed with Marders, Strykers, and now the Challenger 2 tanks, to try to break Russian lines in the south.
Given the futility of such attempts with much heavier weapons so far, and given the overwhelming air superiority the Russians possess, that effort is likely to fail. I am not kidding about that last bit, by the way – in the last 2.5 months, the Ukies have managed to shoot down precisely TWO Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters, as far as I can tell, but the Alligators have hunted and destroyed dozens of Ukrainian armoured vehicles and littered their carcasses all over the battlefield.
That is before we get to the fact that the much-vaunted NATO training has proven useless – and that is not merely my opinion, either. This is not surprising – NATO forces have NEVER attempted to storm defences as strong as what the Russians have built, since WWII. No Western army has ever seen this kind of war in the last 50 years. We see increasing reports of Ukrainian troops getting fed up with their NATO trainers telling them to drive around minefields, and feeling their time with NATO left them underprepared for what they face in southern (former) Banderastan.
And that, too, is before we get to the various videos and images of Ukrainian mobilisation commissars quite literally assaulting men on the streets, collaring them, and throwing them into black-window vans to be shipped off like cattle to die.
Oh, you think I’m making that up? Watch this:
All of this is happening while an increasingly powerful Russian offensive is gathering force and momentum in the northern sector of the conflict. Russian troops are now advancing toward Kupyansk, and if – really, when – they take it, they will rapidly reverse the only real gains the Ukies ever made during the SMO. The Khreat Khokholite Kharkov Khounteroffensive from last autumn is the ONLY serious victory the Ukies have ever won – at the cost of roughly two brigades’ worth of men and equipment destroyed on their side, and quite minimal losses on the Russian side – and the Russians are about to reverse it.
And what then? What happens at the end of three to four weeks from now, when Ukraine has literally nothing left, and the West has no more armaments and toys to send to the front, for the Russian Orktillery to pound into scrap metal?
Ukraine is running out of men. It is that simple. Their leaders are now urgently talking about a general mobilisation – hardly necessary if they were actually winning and inflicting huge casualties on the Russians.
Their air defences are essentially non-existent outside of Queef. Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ignat finally had a rare moment of honesty when he admitted that Ukraine not only cannot shoot down the gigantiferous Russian Kh-22 carrier-killing missile, it never managed to do so even once since the start of the SMO.
It does not take a genius to realise that, if the Ukies could not shoot down the high-supersonic (Mach 4.6) Kh-22, which is an enormous target (that monster is 12m long), then it cannot shoot down the much more modern Kh-32, which has a new engine and a much higher flight ceiling – and, by extension, the hypersonic (Mach 9-10) Kh-47M2 Kinzhal.
Conclusion – Death Throes of a Non-Nation
It took me a very long time to write this post (as you can probably tell). I intended to write it weeks ago, but circumstances and situations kept changing, and only now do we have sufficient information to draw reasonable conclusions.
All of the available data and evidence point to one absolutely inescapable conclusion:
Ukraine is being destroyed before our eyes. There is NO HOPE of victory for them – none whatsoever.
Ukraine has been lying to everyone all along about its capabilities – and now those lies are catching up with it.
NATO stooges are now talking about trading land to Russia for Ukraine’s membership in the bloc. That is an absolute non-starter – Ukraine in NATO, in any form, is totally unacceptable from the Russian point of view. So this conflict will carry on until Russia ends up with a government in Queef that does what Moscow tells it to do, and Ukraine will end up a landlocked, impoverished, broken, demographically doomed hellhole.
That last part is very important. The picture you see above shows a CATASTROPHIC demographic collapse. In 2023 thus far, there have been less than 100K live births – in a nation of, now, about 20 million people, probably less. That is in a country that has lost at least 300K dead men by now, and where literally HALF the pre-2022 population is GONE – most of which will never return. Its women are gone – Ukraine’s Total Fertility Rate is now, as far as I am aware, below 1.2 births per woman. It will NOT survive as a nation now.
The bottom line is, THERE IS NO HOPE FOR UKRAINE. This war is over. Ukraine has lost, both in the short-term, and the longer term. The true scale of the horrific losses it has taken are probably on the order of 350K dead, by this point, and could be as high as 500K – maybe more, because the Russian MoD doesn’t count bits and pieces, and can’t count those literally vaporised by TOS-1A thermobaric rockets, Iskander missiles, Kindzhals, and other assorted hell-weapons.
The only hope for Ukraine to retain even a sliver of sovereignty, even a measure of independence, is to surrender immediately, unconditionally, and take whatever terms the Russians offer. Of course, this will not happen, so the slaughter will go on, and on, and on, until Ukraine’s military collapses completely, and the Russians push forward to the Dnieper and beyond.
This is how a failed Zerg Rush ends – with Terran Marines burning down the Hatchery, Spawning Pool, and everything else. And that is how 404 will end – a failed state, collapsed in on itself, that will never, ever recover.