By the way, if it should someday be proven that the Russians actually have only lost X number, where X equals 15k KIA or 20 or 25 or 50k, then we’ll find at the same time that, at this point in time, the Ukies still have only lost about X x 1.2. Why their claim, in such a case, of losing 200 men per day? Sympathy and increased aid from the west.

Once again, no, you can’t believe anything.

Note, generally, as you seem to, that statistical analyses tend to be bullshit. Again, you appear subject to confirmation bias, a bias that would likely disappear or, at least, be lessened, if you simply realize that everybody (but me) is lying.

WRT last paragraph: not an ice cube’s chance in Hell.

Ummm,,,no, that 50k-55k appears to be based on confirmed death notices in Russian media

No, it’s not. Read the fine print over at Mediazona (which, inevitably, British presstitutes never did). That range of 40-55K comes from a mathematical excess mortality model. And if there is one thing I have learned in the past 3 years, watching academics flagrantly abuse basic statistics to come up with wildly idiotic claims, it is that one should never trust any kind of mathematical model without looking very closely at its assumptions.

The actual, confirmed deaths from publicly available data on the Russian side, come to 27K – again, from Mediazona, a distinctly hostile anti-Russian source. That, I believe, is too low a number, which is why I accept a minimum of around 40K dead on the Russian side.

Look, you are welcome to your own theories and ideas, based on your own experience and knowledge, sir. Against that, I will pit the actual data and evidence coming from the battlefield and belligerent governments, in what is easily the most heavily documented conflict in history, and the actual data and evidence coming from leaked NATO documents. All of the ACTUAL data point to a true catastrophe for the Ukrainians, while the Russians have no problems whatsoever replenishing their losses – which are still greater than any conflict they have ever fought since the First and Second Chechen Wars.

The data tell us the Ukies have lost between 100K and 350K dead – a huge span that covers any number of possibilities. Based on what I’ve seen, we’re probably looking at some 68K dead between March and September 2022, plus another 40K dead between the Khreat Khokholite Kharkov and Kherson Khounteroffensives, and then another 50K (minimum) dead during Operation Meatgrinder in Bakhmut, and at least another 25K dead in just 6 weeks of their latest Zerg-rush. That is a minimum of 173K dead in specific sectors of the conflict, with tens of thousands more dead from sepsis, shrapnel, blood loss, and God only knows what else. Radio intercepts from the Ukrainian side, along with leaked documents and evidence from their own Telegram channels, show a humanitarian and military catastrophe that Europe has not seen since 1945.

That is my final word on the subject, until and unless I see clear evidence that either confirms or rejects the basic thesis – that Russians are killing Ukrainians at a rate of between 4:1 and 17:1, and an average of around 10:1, and that Ukraine has lost something on the order of 300K dead, at minimum. You are free to agree or disagree, as you see fit.

Ummm,,,no, that 50k-55k appears to be based on confirmed death notices in Russian media. There will have been other deaths and, as we’ve seen since, oh, the very beginning of not just this was but war, itself, governments lie and armed forces lie at their behest. Indeed, did you know that Special Operations Forces in the US almost never suffer a KIA? Do you know why? Because they’re given post mortem transfers to other units before the deaths are announced. So, yes, it’s about Russian x 100k KIA, DOW, Missing (and essentially evaporated or buried), etc. And, I think, about 120k KIA, etc., Ukrainian.

By the way, you may have missed it; accepting that figure for dead Russians means that, why yes, the Russians are officially lying. Missed that,, did we?

You’re too credulous. You let your desires cloud your judgement. Yes, really. On the plus side, you’re not like that moron, Kek, who is, like the other alt rights/whites/reichs, incapable of understanding the difference between objective analysis and reporting and siding with one side or the other. Frankly, it makes zero difference to my only concern, the United States, which kleptocracy rules which portions of the great grass and mud sea. Conversely, thought, and admittedly, because the international community of the ever so caring and sensitive, the cosmopolitans, the globalists, the EU filth, Labour, RINOs, and the Democratic Party have all staked their future on the Ukie’s prevailing I will, at a personal level, thoroughly enjoy watching their hopes and dreams blighted.

Oh, and an FYI; western equipment is in almost every case better than Russian. And much better than material that was stored thirty years ago by being parked in the open somewhere. Why do you suppose the Russians are reactivating T62s when they had so many -72s, etc., in storage?

Your last point is unnecessary. i agree and have always agreed that the Ukrainians can’t keep it up as long as the Russians can.

Any merit to my theory or am I just a deluded crackpot riding the white tiger?

I learned a long time ago that conspiracy theories are just spoiler alerts 6 months in advance.

Your basic premise is essentially correct, but you miss one very important factor:

Evil is not monolithic. There are factions within the ruling GloboHomoPaedoPharisatanist class. One of those factions – the Neoclowns – believes that the American military can never be defeated on the battlefield, and that they can run any number of social experiments they want, because ultimately, America is the exceptional nation that will always prevail.

Being utterly ignorant of history and the realities of what “nation” actually means, they simply do not comprehend that there is nothing exceptional about America, in the grand scheme of things, beyond its original creed of maximal individual liberties compatible with law and order. (An ethos that clearly died long ago, by the way.)

In that respect, they do not see the decimation of the US military for what it is, because, to them, it is inconceivable that the military could ever fail or turn on its masters.

Yet, other factions of the ruling class do sense the collapse – particularly the money people – and they are terrified. That is why you see what passes for “realists” in the DC Swamp desperately trying to pull Amerikhastan back from the brink. It is not working particularly well, due to the fundamental lack of unity between the factions, but this is ultimately what is stopping the FUSA from diving balls-first into a European war that it simply cannot win.

The other point to note about a Caesar rising up to take command is that such a figure would need a large and thoroughly united power base, as existed in the Roman Republic towards the end. In America today, people can’t even agree on what a man or a woman is, and you have Black against Hispanic against Asian against LGBTQWTFISTHISSHIT, and all of them against Whites. There is no consolidated power base for a proverbial strongman to exploit – nor is there a unified understanding of what America is, or was.

The God-Emperor did his best to fulfil the role of the Gracchi. He failed, in large part because he was (and is) a negotiator, not a warrior, in reality. But there will be no Caesar to save America, not until it goes through the same harrowing that the USSR did. It is NOT an accident that someone like Putin came along when he did, to restore Russia to greatness – AFTER it had shed its non-Russian vassals and returned to a 70% ethnic Russian nation-state.

The latest Western estimate of Russian KIAs is now in the range of 40-55K – note, this is a FAR cry from their truly ridiculous claims of 100K+ from as recently as 6 months ago. I consider the low end of that range to be credible, given what I am seeing and hearing from people in Russia, and from the fact that we do not see vast cemeteries overflowing with fresh burial mounds of dead soldiers.

It is not as if the Russians are censoring such things, either. Russians can easily upload videos of mass graves to their social media accounts on Telegram, if they so choose. NATO satellites fly over the entire territory of Russia every day. Yet we see no evidence of vast expansions of graveyards.

The same simply cannot be said of Ukraine, where every day on Telegram I see new videos of hundreds, sometimes thousands, of fresh graves dug for soldiers across Ukraine, and where I see firsthand video accounts of bits and pieces of Ukrainians scattered all over the battlefields. This is a war on a scale unlike anything Europe has seen in 80 years – and it is very different, qualitatively speaking, from WWII, because of the new technologies used and the extremely lopsided kill ratios.

As for the kill ratios themselves – again, I will go with what people on the ground are saying. RFK Jr. pointed out recently that his son fought for the khokhols. (More fool him, really.) That man got out alive, and stated clearly that the Russians have a 10:1 artillery advantage and an 8:1 kill ratio in their favour. This correlates precisely with statements from Western mercenaries, Ukrainian POWs, Ukrainian soldiers still in the fight, and Russian MoD estimates.

All of the available evidence points to the same conclusion: extreme Ukrainian casualties from amazingly stupid tactics, lousy training, awful Western equipment, and nearly schizophrenic orders issued by NATO commanders acting through khokhol subordinates. The Russians, meanwhile, act methodically, precisely, and with extreme lethality, while preserving the lives of their men. There are instances of serious mass casualty events on the Russian side – the failed assault on Ugledar last November, for instance, in which the Russians clearly lost quite a few men and a lot of armoured vehicles – but there is simply nothing on the scale of the catastrophe now unfolding on the Ukrainian side.

One last point to note: there is a huge difference between the ability of the two sides to replenish their losses. The Russians have absolutely no trouble recruiting men to join the fight – the MoD itself reports that they are (or were, as of June) getting up to 1,300 volunteers every day, and are now well on their way to building a military force of 2.5M men. The Ukrainians, by contrast, are literally sending armed goons to drag men off the streets, stuff them into black vans, and throw fresh meat into the grinder. They have repeatedly had to relax their mobilisation requirements, and are forcing men from western 404 to join the ranks to die ingloriously. Previously, they were only rounding up Russian-speakers for their Zerg rushes.

This points very clearly to a severe collapse in morale, as well as Ukie capacity to replenish already catastrophic losses.

These are people with largely the same equipment

Not anymore, for well over a year now. The Russians have uniform equipment and standards. The Ukrainians have a complete mishmash of, basically, Western junk, mixed in with whatever ex-Soviet stuff they have been able to get their hands on.

largely the same doctrine at the higher levels – because they learned it in the same schools – from similar cultures and similar military cultures

Again, not anymore. NATO has trained the Ukrainian military to their own standards and ways of thinking, from 2014 to 2022. The US command culture clashes very badly with ex-Soviet doctrine, as we are now seeing. Moreover, the Russians have evolved their tactical and operational doctrines in their own General Staff college, and have moved beyond a lot of their old Soviet ideology. We know that from past and present graduates, who compare what the Soviets taught, with what they now teach as “operational art” in Russian schools – the two are very different.

The Russians are likely firing more shells and therefore, in the manner of such things, wasting a lot of shells. The Ukies are firing ours and ours are, oh, a lot better.

Oh, really? Was the M-777 ever designed for this kind of war? No. It wasn’t. That weapon is light, fast, and portable – basically, it is designed for “shoot-and-scoot” operations against goathumpers who cannot fire back. But the Russians are a totally different matter – they CAN fire back, and do so using quite sophisticated passive counterbattery radars and acoustic complexes (e.g. their Penicillin system). Worse, the Ukies use the M-777s to fire shells at rates they were never designed for, which is why those weapons keep breaking down.

Moreover, the Ukrainians consider French, German, and Italian guns to be overpriced garbage – again, they have said as much.

As for the Russians wasting a lot – I would have agreed with you a year ago, because the drone footage from both sides supported that. No longer. Since last September, their use of spotter drones has improved markedly, and their ability to hit targets has gone up in tandem. The Russians fire shells at rates not seen since WWII, and they use them to obliterate advancing waves of infantry and vehicles. The videos on this subject are definitive – Ukrainian losses are horrific, and most of them come from arty. There is video from just a couple of days ago which shows an entire field full of Ukrainian corpses, after yet another failed frontal assault on Russian positions in the southern grey zone.

The enemy throwing more shells means you dig in more and deeper. it means you suspend offensive operations – which appears to be happening – rather than expose your troops to shell fire in the open.

That is what sound doctrine would suggest, I agree. It is also the precise opposite of what is actually happening, and the drone video evidence proves it. The Ukrainians have simply changed tactics to use infantry instead of vehicles, but they are applying constant pressure to the front lines. In gaming, we call it “Zerg-rushing”, and it is about as sensible as the name suggests. The reports from the battlefields, from BOTH sides, are definitive on this point, as is the video evidence.

That figure of 20k per day, by the way, seems to come from the Ukrainians

No, it doesn’t come from just the Ukies. Remember, I read and understand Russian media. The Russians are saying the same thing.

1.7 million casualties, they’d have ceased to exist militarily by now and the Russian Army would be on the southern Polish border.

Where does this 1.7M number come from? I have never made any such claim. I have stated clearly that I have seen Ukie KIA estimates of 180-330K, and I consider the upper range to be credible, given what I am seeing from the battlefield. The loss ratios would indicate a total of probably another 400-500K wounded, many of them so severely that they will never fight again, but I have no firm numbers on that point.

Given Ukraine’s original manpower pool of some 200K fighting men, plus 400K reserves, and their subsequent multiple waves of mobilisation and Western training, I consider those numbers to be generally credible.

Further, the Ukies DID cease to exist as an effective and cohesive military last June, in the first iteration of their army. The Russians simply did not have the numbers to push all the way to Poland – nor did they ever want to. The original SMO force was barely 90K fighting men, on an economy-of-force mission designed to push the Banderites to negotiate a settlement. When that failed, they moved to an attrition war, but they just did not have enough troops to push through all the way. Only now, 9 months later, do they have a force fully capable of wiping out the thrice-reconstituted Ukrainian military. They destroyed the original Ukrainian C4ISR complex within the first month of the SMO – but then, as Ukraine brought more reserves online over the summer months, the Russians had to settle in and fight a war of attrition.

I seriously doubt we’ve been able to get the Ukies to our level.

They are not, and the evidence for that is straightforward and clear. Every single time the Ukies have come up against regular Russian Army troops, well-armed, well-trained, properly fortified and equipped, they have been wiped out. That is true regardless of how much arty they bring to bear.

But the Russians, on the other hand, while they may have been capable of it, if only in theory, during the Cold War are now structurally, organizationally incapable of it.

That is no longer true, and has not been since, effectively, last October, when the Russians began to undo the entire idea of the BTG, and went back to their old divisional structures. Now, they do have the numbers and the artillery power.

The problem with the Alt Right, Alt White, and Alt Reich is that their thought processes are indistinguishable from those of the SJWs.

Thanks for illustrating this point so well. Kek.

Moron.

“They’re trying to establish a cohesive global ruling class to rule the world, and especially to prevent doubleplusungood war”
.
given the prevalence of overtly Satanic symbolism amongst many of those who consider themselves our superiors, i suspect that the “anti-war” plank of the kakistocracy isn’t anything but a cover story.
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after all, it’s going to be rather difficult to achieve that < 500 million world population if you’re arbitrarily refusing to use all of the 4 Horsemen.

done ourselves proud, have we?