Based on what evidence? As I have pointed out repeatedly, all of the available data, from both Russian and Ukrainian sources (non-governmental ones, in both cases), point to hideous losses among the latter, and painful but quite manageable losses among the former. The disparities in firepower are so severe – at least 10:1 in terms of artillery alone – that logic dictates it is impossible for Ukraine to avoid heavy casualties. And they insist on continuing to feed men into meat-grinders all over the battlefield, especially in Bakhmut.

The video evidence from social media in Ukraine points to cemeteries overflowing with the dead, and with thousands of fresh graves added every week – but no such analogues come out of Russian social media, and the Russians have much higher degrees of social media freedoms than Ukrainians do.

All the available evidence points to a severe crisis of manpower on the Ukrainian side, with repeated waves of forced mobilisation taking place all over what remains of the country and laws being passed to forcibly return men aged between 18 and 60 who fled to other countries in Europe. This could not happen if they had sustained “only” 40K dead, given their original army size of over 200K with at least 500K in reserves.

I’m deeply skeptical of those figures. Their casualties are probably within 10-20% of each other.

Very much like the US Government, yes, only with more skill and conviction.

I know of Col. Macgregor, sir – I always enjoy listening to what he says, he speaks freely on Judge Andrew Napolitano’s livestreams. He is of the strong opinion that Ukraine has suffered catastrophic casualties, well in excess of 150K. I know where he is getting that number – it comes from a leaked document of the Ukrainian General Staff, which I have seen floating around on Telegram. It looks authentic, and jives well with what I have seen of Ukrainian cemeteries overflowing with dead.

The problem – for Western analysts, anyway – is that no such analogue exists for the Russians. There is no evidence of mass graves in Russia – though you will find videos showing graves of hundreds (not thousands) of Wagner soldiers in one particular place, and there is photographic evidence of dozens of dead Wagner fighters in a single field, who seemed to die from a catastrophic chain reaction in a minefield. But there is simply no evidence available of anything like even 40K dead on the Russian side.

The total number of Russian dead appears to be, as far as I can tell, 15-20K. But the total number of Ukrainian dead is assuredly well over 100K – they wouldn’t be on their eleventyfirst wave of “mobilisation” (read: press-ganging) if it were otherwise.

both sides are lying through their teeth?
.
you mean, like the US government?

Mind, I think Macgregor really doesn’t understand the one thing he’s, so to speak, tried to make his bones with; see: Breaking the Phalanx, which I consider to be organizational lunacy. But he does understand operations and even strategy rather well.

Don’t be turned off by the ridiculous anti-Russian titles; he’s only doing that to fool the Youtube algorithms. The meat of his talks is realistic, morally neutral, and decidedly anti-Ukie-bullshit.

In any case, don’t believe anyone’s casualty figures; both sides are lying through their teeth. Total KIA at this point? Probably around 40k. Each.

Sure. I will try to answer this in an upcoming podcast, along with some other reader and Telegram channel member questions.

For now, start with Stepan Bandera and the Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists, do a search for the Volynia Massacre and the Babi Yar massacre, and that should be enough to get the ball rolling. There is also a post on my site from just under a year ago which talks about the neo-Nazi legacy of Badnera.

This is a topic of interest, can you give me a starter pack?