Russian Telegram channels today absolutely blew up with the news that the liberated territories of the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, plus whatever has been freed in Kherson and Zaporozh’ye regions, will almost immediately start to hold referendums on the subject of formal accession to the Russian Federation. The importance and impact of this development cannot be overstated, because it truly does fundamentally change the face of the 404 War.
Despite the apocalyptic headlines seen in Western presstitute papers and (((media)))))))))))) sites over the past 7 months or so, the fact is that the Russians have very deliberately restrained themselves from using the true extent of their capabilities. They have severely limited the force, frightfulness, and speed of their attack against Ukraine, and have in fact shown astonishing restraint in avoiding attacks on critical civilian infrastructure.
The Russian Way of War
We must always keep in mind that Russians do not fight the way Westerners fight, at all. If America were to go to war with a country – even if it were a limited attack, like for instance Operation: IRAQI FREEDOM, aka Gulf War II – it would begin by knocking out power, water, railways, factories, and pretty much anything that could reasonably be used to supply the opposing military. The knock-on effects for civilians in these situations are always devastating. The American way of fighting is to immobilise the enemy and then smash through his lines with overwhelming force to capture as much territory as possible, as fast as possible.
Russians do not think or fight like this. Their entire objective, since the beginning of this conflict, has been the annihilation of the Ukrainian military. They think in terms of killing people and breaking things – like the US military USED to think, once upon a time – not in terms of acquiring lots of territory. Unlike the US, which went into Iraq and to a lesser extent Afghanistan with very vaguely defined end goals, the Russian objectives are very clearly defined, for the most part. They want to:
- Defend the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, which Russia now recognises as independent nations (though just about no one else of any consequence does);
- Demilitarise the Ukrainian military so that it cannot pose a threat to either the LDNR allies or the Russian homeland, which means the physical destruction and annihilation of the enemy;
- De-Nazification of the Ukrainian government and territorial defence forces, which is admittedly a rather nebulous statement and is difficult to achieve without the complete conquest of 404;
- Neutrality for Ukraine itself, with a promise that the country (whatever is left of it) will never again attempt to join NATO;
None of these objectives even remotely requires the destruction of civilian infrastructure, in the main. Where the Russians have struck civilian infrastructure, such as their destruction of railway power substations some months ago, they have done so to slow the ability of the Ukrainians to resupply their troops in the field. But they have done nothing, really, to shut down Ukraine’s ability to sustain itself, beyond taking its richest territories.
The upshot of this way of fighting is that it puts the onus of the war on the LDNR militias, with a relatively less important role for the regular, all-volunteer, Russian military Battalion Tactical Groups that the Russians have assigned to the war. (The Russians have deliberately kept their conscripts, which still form the bulk of their armed forces, out of the major fighting, with some embarrassing slip-ups here and there.)
The New Rules
All of that restraint – literally ALL OF IT – goes straight out the window once those regions join the Russian Federation, and for reasons that are transparently obvious.
An attack on the LDNR territories, or Kherson, or Zaporozh’ye, right now, is simply an attack on territory that Russia occupies. It is technically not part of Russia. The hair-splitters among us might parse such things with a micron-width high-precision laser, perhaps, but the legal standing is what it is.
But, the moment that those regions join Russia, they become the sovereign territory of the Russian Federation. An attack on those territories by any foreign government is an act of WAR.
Not only that, but the Russians suddenly no longer need to care about whom they kill, where they kill them, or what they break in the process of killing them, beyond the rules of the Geneva Conventions. As LRFotS WB said to me separately, Russia can adopt “Chicago Rules” – “you bring a knife, we bring a gun, you put one of ours in the hospital, we put ten of yours in the morgue”, etc.
That is the reality which the Ukrainians and their Western backers now face. And they are SHITTING THEIR PANTS because of it.
This is why, at this very moment, you can see the various useful idiots of the Western presstitute and political establishments denouncing this idea of holding a referendum as a sham and an illegal move. Quite how they can maintain a straight face, when this is exactly how the Empire of Lies has acted in the past with protectorates like Kosovo & Metohija, Afghanistan, and Iraq, is beyond me, but their skills as actors are far greater than mine.
In reality, this is nothing short of a genius move by the Russians, and by the Neo-Tsar in particular.
Look at that map above. This shows exactly the four of the provinces that will hold their referendums from September 23 to 27 (plus Odessa and Nikolaev regions), in salmon-pink. Those regions were Russian for centuries. Virtually every city in those areas, every town, every village, is populated mostly by ethnic Russians whose ancestors have lived in that area for generations.
At one level, Russia is simply permitting its children to return back to the Motherland’s embrace. But, at another, this is the result of the machinations of a true grandmaster of geopolitical chess – the Neo-Tsar, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.
None of this happened by accident. All of it is part of a larger design.
The Long Road to Reunification
The Neo-Tsar has built up to this moment masterfully. You see that picture above? That is from the recently concluded Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting at Samarkand, Uzbekistan, and it shows the neo-Ottoman Caliph of Turkiye, Erdogan, seated at a table sharing some laughs with his frenemy, Putin, and the Belorussian dictator Aleksander Lukashenko. The mood at that table is plainly quite jovial and relaxed. You can see dignitaries from all over the world scattered around the area – it turns out that representatives from India, Pakistan, Iran, China, and even Hungary were present at this meeting.
All of this was deliberate. Putin has spent the past several YEARS slowly building up alliances and relationships with a number of foreign partners, including those who are naturally enemies. That is why he has an exceptionally cordial and even friendly personal relationship with both India’s Narendra Modi and China’s Xi Jinping, even as both India and China have serious outstanding border disputes with each other in the Himalayas. And that is why is he able to hold constructive conversations with Reccep Tayyip Erdogan, even when Turkish and Russian forces are usually on opposite sides of the five-sided fustercluck that is the ongoing Syrian War.
My view, based on the information that I have seen and the analyses of people I respect, is that Putin went to Samarkand to gauge support among Russia’s international partners for his intention to allow the Ukrainian-held ethnic Russian territories to reintegrate into the homeland. You can see the results of those negotiations and discussions right there, at that table.
The Neo-Tsar is confident, relaxed, and clearly in his element. This speaks to a highly successful set of negotiations. Neither India nor China are particularly keen on granting legitimacy to secessionists, due to their own complex internal politics – but, since both countries are led by nationalists and patriots, they understand perfectly well that any military threat to their people must be smashed.
The idea of this set of referendums did not happen overnight, either. If you were paying attention to Russian Telegram channels – as I have been – then you would know that the Russian-installed governments in Kherson and Zaporozh’ye have been talking about this since basically May, if not earlier. And the LDNR chiefs made their intention to rejoin Russia clear all the way back in February. This is not new. Every last bit of this is deliberate and precisely planned.
And now we begin to understand the true depth of Putin’s strategic genius. This did not happen overnight – it took years to build to this point. Now, here we are.
The Fire and the Fury
The SMO was deliberately limited in scale and scope to win the moral level of war, not just with the peoples of Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporozh’ye, but to win international backing and support for Russia. In this regard, Russia has succeeded, spectacularly. Every serious opinion poll on the subject shows massive support for Russia across most of the Global South, especially in India, China, and Africa.
Once the new-old territories enter the Russian Federation and return home where they belong, the Russians will have every possible excuse to ramp up their attacks on Ukraine. No longer will they need to restrain themselves from attacking anything in Banderastan. From the end of September onward, I believe we can expect to see Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure rapidly intensify in force and frightfulness.
The Russians have already proven with recent strikes on Ukrainian power infrastructure that they can turn the entire country into an unlit parking lot in about, oh, ten minutes (plus the 20-30 or so that it would take for their missiles to actually arrive). They are capable of striking anywhere in Ukraine, without warning, using anything from subsonic and supersonic 3M-54 Kalibr cruise missiles, to high-supersonic P-800 Oniks ship-launched missiles, to hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kindzhal and 3M-22 Tsirkon ATG and STS missiles. They wiped out several large power substations that will take years to rebuild, if indeed they can be rebuilt at all, and they did that without warning in a single strike.
The moment that Russia ratifies those votes and accepts those territories back into itself, the whole game changes. Russia will then be able to deploy its regular forces – of which it has actually done very little, so far – and go on the offensive with a much larger ground force, using much heavier weaponry, than has been seen so far.
Conclusion – World War Z
At that point, all bets are off. If the West does not back off and deescalate, then it is a virtual certainty that NATO will have no choice but to enter the war physically. This seems very likely, since the neoclowns and neolibs of the Empire of Lies plainly have no reverse gear and no capacity to admit their mistakes. They will keep escalating, because NATO’s very credibility is on the line here.
This will end very, very badly for them. Ukraine already had basically the largest NATO-trained, if not quite NATO-standard, army in all of Europe. That has since been smashed to bloody pieces. During the Khreat Khokholite Kherson and Kharkov Khounteroffensives, the hohols threw roughly three DIVISIONS worth of men away – the numbers of dead and wounded from those two largely failed offensives is genuinely horrifying.
There is really no force in Ukraine that can stop a fully unleashed Russian army, that is no longer constrained by highly restrictive rules of engagement, from pushing through whatever is left of the Ukrainian military. The Ukrainians have no air power to speak of, hardly any operating anti-air defences, and whatever is left of their C4ISR is basically NATO-controlled.
NATO troops are already fighting on the ground, and in large numbers. You can find plenty of videos on both Russian and Ukrainian Telegram that show foreign “mercenaries” – in reality, almost certainly Western special forces operators and PMCs – fighting in Kharkov, using NATO tactics and manoeuvres. They move with great skill and show that they have a lot of experience in combat – not at all like the poorly trained conscripts that the hohols kept throwing into the Donbass meat-grinder for so many months.
This war is now entering an extremely dangerous and febrile phase. All eyes should be on the Neo-Tsar’s speech tomorrow, at 9am Moscow time, in which he is expected to welcome the new regions back into the Motherland. Once that happens, we can expect real war.
The Neo-Tsar was not joking when he said that Russia has not really started anything yet, and that if the West wants to defeat Russia on the battlefield, then let them try. He was not bluffing – the Neo-Tsar DOES NOT BLUFF. He was stating the hard, cold truth – that Russia is ready to go to war and will absolutely do so to defend its territories and people.
Hold onto your teeth, people. Things are going to get very loud, very fast, and may God help us all if the neoclowns try to escalate things any further.