The West and the Ukrops definitely got way high on their own supply. They convinced themselves that Russia is a complete pushover and had no hope of resisting economic pressure and sanctions. And, at first, the data indicated that they were right – life in Russia was absolute chaos for the first 2 weeks after the initial invasion. My Russian contacts were freaking out at the time.

But the West, and even the Russians themselves, severely underestimated the resilience and power of the Russian economy, the strength of the Russian people, and the actual competence and foresight of the Russian government. In reality, the Neo-Tsar had been preparing for this moment for 8 years. He almost surely did not expect the severity of the West’s reaction, or its swiftness, but he definitely expected the West to try to attack Russia’s financial system, and prepared accordingly.

Like you’ve said a thousand times. The Russians are doing exactly what they said they were going to do.

Correct. It is a source of never-ending annoyance to me that Western leaders don’t take Putin at his word. They constantly think he is bluffing whenever he says anything that they don’t like. And if it is annoying to me, I can only wonder what it is like for the Russian government.

If we had any brains we’d be sizing up the Russians with appreciation – wow, this shit works.

Yes. I think that the Russians are using the Banderastan War as a relatively safe – believe it or not – testing ground for their newest weapons systems, fighting tactics, operational doctrines, and strategic positioning. They know they are winning. They know the true fight lies with NATO. Everything that I see of Russian warfighting in Ukraine tells me that they are using Banderastan as a way to test themselves and blood their troops for the real fight.

The Russians are lying every bit as much as the Ukrainians – oh, not necessarily the private individuals you may be following on telegram – but at the official level. This reflects in what the private individuals believe and claim.

I agree, up to a point. I never said that the Russians do not themselves lie. “All warfare is deception”, etc. The Russians have assuredly lied about using only professional troops, for instance – they got caught out on that one very early in the war. They are probably undercounting their own casualties – they claim no ore than perhaps 2K dead, and I think this is almost certainly an underestimate. However, the presstitutes at BBC Russia looked into open-source data, such as funerals and burials connected to military families, and concluded early in May that there were around 2.2K Russian dead through to the end of April. (They seemed rather disappointed at this.)

There is also considerable question about how many vehicles and Ukrops the Russians have actually destroyed. They estimate around 25K dead and another 10K wounded – I believe they actually undercount the number of Ukie dead, based on the videos and pictures that I see, coming almost entirely from the Donbas militias, by the way. The pictures are horrific – the Ukrainians are losing easily several hundred men every day, to artillery, air and missile strikes, and skirmishes. The Russians and Allies, by contrast, appear to be losing very few men daily.

I do regard Russian figures with respect to enemy vehicle losses to be highly suspect. They claim to have destroyed more tanks and armoured vehicles since the start of the SMO than Ukraine had to begin with. This may be due to Ukraine pulling vehicles out of reserves, as well as to Western arms dumps. But, either way, the numbers don’t tie out. And Russia claimed a week ago that Ukraine had only about 5-7 days’ worth of fuel left. This may have been an exaggeration, rather than a lie – there is certainly plenty of video evidence showing clearly that the Ukrops need civilian vehicles to get around on the battlefield.

And the Russians have put about 150-180k troops in, and are keeping them there. That’s another trick of the lie, claim you’re using less and are just soooo much superior. Nahhhh.

The last Puzzle Palace estimates that I saw indicate that the US thinks the Russians have 92 BTGs, of between 600 and 800 men, in Ukraine right now. That puts the total number of really-for-real-actual-Russian troops in Ukraine at anywhere between 55,200 and 73,600 – not 150K or anywhere close to that. And, again, this is US intelligence, which has repeatedly made wildly stupid and misleading claims about Russian warfighting capabilities in Ukraine thus far. I am not inclined to believe their higher estimates at all for this precise reason.

In reality, we know that the Russians are providing primarily air and artillery support, logistics, Spetsnaz operations, and armour support, but the LDNR militias are doing most of the real contact fighting in Donbas. In the south and west of Ukraine, Chechen Rosgvardia and Russian regular troops from Crimea seem to be doing most of the hard work in Kherson and Melitopol, and the Russians appear to be focused on pushing south and west from Izyum in the northern Donbas.

The Russians haven’t been trying to win the narrative war in the west because they know it’s an exercise in futility.

I agree. That’s what I said.

I don’t think they know how to sway them anymore

From what I can see, they don’t care either. The Russians that I have spoken with, look at the Western presstitutes with utter bewilderment. They can’t believe that American whorenalists are quite so stupid and mendacious – they know that their own media lies to them, but they still retain a certain naivete about Western press freedoms.

Or, at least, THEY DID. Not any more. Russian attitudes toward the West have hardened substantially, and they no longer regard the Western world as something to respect or aspire toward. They want nothing much more to do with Westerners. While they are not racist toward Western Europeans and Americans, they certainly have no more love for them either.

The trick, once again, is to take both sets of lies and compare them…that, or use certain rules of thumb. Option 1: What the Russians claim they’ve killed and destroyed of the Ukrainians, and vice versa, divide by three and give it a 15-20% range either way. Option 2: add the two claims – i.e. Russian Losses admitted to and Ukrainian kills claimed, and vice versa – and divide by two, then add in that same 15-20% range. Another rule of thumb, there have been very few Omdurmans, Cannaes, and 1st few months of Barbarossa in human history. Attacking or defending, casualties will tend to be very similar, with rarely any difference more than that 15-20% mentioned.

And the Russians have put about 150-180k troops in, and are keeping them there. That’s another trick of the lie, claim you’re using less and are just soooo much superior. Nahhhh.

The Russians haven’t been trying to win the narrative war in the west because they know it’s an exercise in futility. Oh, SURE, if they were still commies then the press, academia, and the left wing pols would be singing their praises and they’d hardly have to work at it…but they’re not and I don’t think they know how to sway them anymore. They were spoiled back when they really were reds.

A narrative is created, everyone sqwauks about it. No one bothers to look and see what’s actually happening.

Like you’ve said a thousand times. The Russians are doing exactly what they said they were going to do.

And I tell you – This is a solid example of the perfect being the enemy of the good. As in good enough.

If we had any brains we’d be sizing up the Russians with appreciation – wow, this shit works. We won’t though. And that 40B they voted in is a hoot. Most of it is to NGOs – just money laundering.

BTW, saw the funniest thing on Gab. May have been fake but a riot anyhow. Dude posts a tweet – “OK I’ll bite. What sort of gay sex does the yellow and blue flag represent?”