If you’ve been paying much attention to the scourge of modrenity over the past few years, you might be forgiven for thinking that the Chinese are going to eat America’s lunch. The never-to-be-sufficiently-cursed whorenalists and presstitutes of the (((media))))))) seem hell-bent on ramming the latest idiotic scare story down your throat about how the 21st Century belongs to China, and how the American Empire is doomed. You hear a lot of this from the political classes as well. The American political elite don’t agree on much of anything (at least in public), but they do agree on one issue: China is dangerous to the USA, and to the West in general, and must be confronted.
Now, I am assuredly no fan of China or the Chinese. I have plenty of experience dealing with Chinese culture and people. While I like and respect certain things about their way of doing things, the reality is that their civilisation is VERY different to that of (what used to be) the Western world.
A Dragon Chasing its Tail
Western civilisation sits on three pillars – Graeco-Roman philosophy, CHRISTIAN morality (don’t waste your time, and more importantly, mine, with any of that “Judaeo-Christian” bullshit), and the European nations. These pillars are by definition radically different from the bases upon which Chinese civilisation sits.
Their civilisation – back before the ChiComs wrecked it all – rested upon very different pillars: Confucian philosophy, Buddhist morality (these two are somewhat interchangeable, though not completely), and Han-centric racial imperialism. What we know of today as “China” is not, and has never been, one complete united nation. It is actually at least 5, and possibly as many as 9, different countries held together under the threat of force by the Han-controlled Chinese Communist Party.
All of this means that the West and China are fundamentally incompatible. That does not mean that the two civilisations cannot be arms-length associates and learn from each other. They assuredly can. But they won’t, because the Chinese have a COLOSSAL racial superiority complex dating back to their much-vaunted, much-ballyhooed, and rather false claim that they have a 5,000-year-old civilisation that discovered things like tea, silk, magnetism, gunpowder, and paper, centuries before the West had the first clue how to do anything useful.
This claim is false simply because the ChiComs largely destroyed the ancient Chinese civilisation, which doesn’t really exist anymore. The ChiComs kept the vestiges of it, but twisted it to suit their own purposes. And they kept the ingrained belief in racial superiority that the Chinese had, and continue to have to this very day, to pursue their own dreams of global domination.
All of this results in an empire held together by threat of force and extremely intrusive security measures, centred around a dominant ethnic minority, trying to establish a globe-spanning empire in an attempt to recapture Ye Olde Glorye Dayes.
It ain’t gonna work. The intrepid folks at the YooToobz channel PolyMatter have put together a pretty comprehensive and fascinating examination of four major factors that will cause China falter and fail over the next 50 years.
Demographics IS Destiny
It is quite rare for me to disagree, even slightly, with Our Beloved and Dreaded Supreme Dark Lord (PBUH) Vox Day the Most Terrible and Merciless. But recently, he wrote approvingly of China’s attempts to rectify its rapidly declining birth rate with changes to existing laws concerning how many children a couple may have.
If you are not aware of that development, essentially, the ChiComs now permit families to have 3 kids, up from the old two-child policy that persisted over the past 10 years.
As OBADSDL(PBUH) points out, the Chinese want their civilisation and culture to survive, and they will do what it takes to ensure this. And he’s right about that.
But I don’t think he’s right about the likelihood of it working.
Chinese Baby Bust
As the video points out, China is currently coming to the tail end of the massive demographic dividend that it reaped in the 1960s and 1970s, when its birth rates were very, very high. But those workers are now at or near retirement age. And China’s social security system is nowhere near capable of handling that level of demand.
Moreover, the ChiComs can tell couples to have as many kids as they want to, sure. But the ChiComs have also engineered conditions in China such that having kids is too expensive, and incentives for women to delay marriage and childbirth are too strong.
This is not Hungary, where government efforts to reward women for having large families are now paying off. China’s Total Fertility Rate (i.e. average number of children per woman across a woman’s reproductive years) has been below replacement rates for 25 years. It is slowly ticking upwards, but at 1.69 or so, it’s still way too low to allow the Chinese to catch up in anything like enough time.
The only way for the ChiComs to win that battle with Father Time is to enslave their women and turn them into breeding machines, and then indoctrinate newly-born Han Chinese from cradle to grave.
I wouldn’t put that sort of Satanic evil past them. That kind of dystopian nightmare is the stuff of sci-fi novels, like Huxley’s Brave New World. It’s not very likely to happen – yet. But, again, don’t underestimate the ChiComs.
Even if the ChiComs dodge the jab of the TFR, though, they will likely get nailed by the right cross of:
China’s Massive Housing Bubble
As the second video in the series points out, the Chinese have a colossal housing bubble forming at the heart of their economy. Actually, that’s an overly charitable estimation. They have gone through several housing booms and busts over the past 30 years. Every single one has been swept under the rug by the Chinese authorities. Their monetary system is capable of handling the bubbles, primarily because of China’s massive current account surplus. But the endless series of bubbles that they have created will likely soon outstrip the abilities of the PRC’s central bank to backstop the bad loans.
Their culture is obsessed with “face” – guanxi – and if you know anything about Eastern cultures, you know what that means. Essentially, nobody in China ever wants to admit wrongdoing or failure. This is a gross overgeneralisation, admittedly, but it’s not that far from the truth. That tendency extends right to the top of the Chinese leadership – witness their continued refusal to admit that they MIGHT HAVE F***ED UP with respect to the Kung Flu.
That refusal to admit mistakes translates into a serious case of Edifice Complex, in which the government and the people would much rather paper over their problems using massive public works projects. And that will cause China to expose itself immediately to the massive left hook of:
China’s Water Daemons
It turns out that China has a serious water shortage, particularly in the north of the country. China is an odd case of a country that has both abundant waterways in the centre, south, and southeast, and yet also has a serious desertification problem in the north and west. Instead of trying to balance needs out by raising water prices to the consumers and allowing market forces to determine solutions to water scarcity, though, the Chinese have a very… well, Chinese approach to their own problem.
Water shortages all over the country? No need to regulate consumption through market forces! No point in trying to ration water to farmers!! And certainly no use in decentralising the problem to the local cities and provinces!!! Let’s just build a gigantic series of public works projects to transport huge amounts of water from rich areas to poor ones!!!!!
Given that the Three Gorges Dam is now showing signs of cracking and strain, a little over 20 years after its completion, and given the general quality (or rather, lack thereof) of Chinese-made things, you can imagine how well that is going to turn out. It’s ALREADY turning out rather badly.
And all of that is leading China to dip its chin right down into the knockout uppercut of:
China’s Imperial Overstretch
You can already see the ways that the factors outlined above have led China into great-power posturing. This is not sustainable. As LRFotS MrUNIVAC pointed out in a recent comment, quoting another commenter over at OBADSDL(PBUH) Vox Day‘s place, China is indeed a Third-world country pretending to be a First-world one. And they very much have the mindset of a Third-world country.
For all that they have the world’s largest military, and by some distance, their military prowess is greatly overblown. The reality is that China can’t field a blue-water navy to save its ass. Their carrier battle groups are a joke:
And, again, being Chinese, they cannot bring themselves to admit that they have some serious shortcomings. As I’ve pointed out before, their idea of a 5th-generation stealth fighter looks as if a dyslexic Chinese spy described an F-22 down the phone, in English, which was then translated literally into a series of blueprints that they used to build the damn thing.
Moreover, China’s military is, in fact, quite weak, and has an absolutely terrible combat record. I mock the Pentaloons for being unable to win so much as an egg-and-spoon-race these days, but the reality is that the US military IS quite capable of killing people and breaking things when it actually gets serious about war. The Pentaloons cannot win wars, but American forces on the ground are SUPREMELY capable of winning individual battles, and quite handily. In fact, if you add up all of the battles that America won in the Vietnam War, they actually outfought both the Viet Cong and the NVA by substantial margins.
America wins battles and loses wars. China, or at least, the People’s Liberation Army, can’t even win most battles. It doesn’t have the know-how to fight wars, either. America’s Forever Wars are PROFOUNDLY stupid and continue to bleed the country dry of fighting spirit, blood, and treasure, but at least some parts of the warrior classes, at the rank of perhaps Major and below, anyway, still know how to fight.
Now this is one area where I think it’s a bad idea to write off the Chinese completely. The Chinese know and understand perfectly well that their capabilities are at least a full generation, maybe two, behind America’s. They don’t grok “systemology”, not yet. And they know that, in order to catch up to the much-hated “White Pigs”, they have to think well outside the box.
That is where their doctrine of “unrestricted warfare” comes from. They will use whatever means are necessary to fight and win against America. Given what we now know about the likely origins of General Tso’s Chicken Pox, I would not be in the least bit surprised to learn that the ChiComs were busy developing biological weapons to give themselves an asymmetrical advantage against America’s conventional strength.
Furthermore, China’s history of military strategy and conquest dates back to before Roman times. These people KNOW what war is. They just aren’t very good at fighting it, these days, thanks to the CCP.
Conclusion – A Wounded Dragon
I did a whole podcast on this subject a while back, in which I discussed the contrasting military positions and philosophies of both the USA and China:
But the differences go well beyond the military. America’s culture and civilisation is basically doomed, at this point, and it is logical to assume that Chinese hegemony will replace the Pax Americana. That, in my estimate, is not correct. The reality is that China will grow old, weak, and poor long before it can achieve its dreams of global dominance. It will be strong and powerful, to be sure, for at least the next twenty years. But it will not be long before SERIOUS cracks in their system begin to show up and threaten to topple the whole thing.