Our good friend The Male Brain is back with a translation of a long article by an Israeli Big Brain. Following on from a similar post last year, wherein Dawn Pine translated a blog post from Dr. Roey Tzezana, Dawn has translated a new blog post from the same guy. This time, the post is about how we move forward from where we are into a future where the Commiepox is a reality of daily life. Obviously Dr. Tzezana has a very clearly Leftist, globalist, and academic perspective on the Kung Flu, and you can see that down below. You can clearly understand the limitations of Leftist thinking in dealing with crises – they see every crisis as an opportunity to impose ever greater control over our lives, with ever more disastrous results. Dawn has provided a number of his own comments throughout the translation. At the end, I provide my own brief conclusions. Many thanks indeed to Dawn for translating this and providing us with some real food for thought.
More than a year ago, the original COVID (or a very close variation) started spreading globally. We have reached ~100 million infected and ~2.2 million dead. Israel had 2 successful lockdowns, and is in the midst of the third, at least for the next few days.
The main focus is on the next month or two. Not many are thinking long-term. That is exactly the modus operandi that led to the second and third lockdowns. We need to think further ahead – at least a year – to avoid the fourth, fifth and sixth lockdowns. Or, if they are inevitable, at least we will be prepared.
This note will present 3 possible courses based on forward view, and what we know today. Surely those are not the only ones, but they’ll provide a chain of thought for discussing the new image of the globe, and how we may face the situation years ahead, instead of going for “Hey, let’s see how long we need to keep the lockdown!”
Before I dive in, we need to agree on what’s happening. Here is a short summary of reality as I see it.
The World, Israel and the Virus Today
Here is the situation in Israel right now:
1. Even the sceptics admit that the virus is a major public threat
The US, where a large portion of the population didn’t consider the risk, had already 450,000 COVID casualties and the pandemic is still in process. The same mortality rate in Israel would bring us to 12,500 dead [TMB – status of Israeli recorder COVID deaths as of Feb 1 was ~4,800], and as stated, it’s not over.
[He is wrong. Roughly 10% said they won’t vaccinate and additional 20% are sceptics and may not vaccinate. Those are the results from a national poll taken a few days ago. Here’s a good example – teachers get priority to be vaccinated, yet less than 50% chose to. – TMB]
2. The effects of “yo-yo” lockdowns
In January, 1,336 Israelis passed away due to COVID, after 2 weeks of “loose lockdown” and 3 weeks of “tight lockdown”. Hospitals are overwhelmed, people wait hours in ambulances to get in, where they are provided with oxygen tank, and if they feel better, they are released home, since there is no place for them. When they deteriorate, they go back by ambulance, wait for hours, and so on. Some don’t survive, and due to that crowding, people die, a fact proven by several researches, including an Israeli one.
[This is all MAJOR BS. Was myself in a hospital for family case not COVID related 2 times in December-January. Nothing like this is evident. There is pressure on some hospitals, mostly in the periphery but nothing close to what he describes. – TMB]
3. The lockdowns failed and helped at the same time
They failed because cases are not going down, but they also helped since they flattened the infection curve. Why are cases not going down? Because the new variants, such as the British one (and soon the South-African one) have stormed Israel. They spread faster, and apparently the British strain is deadlier. The result – our predictions for the effectiveness of the counter measure, for the last species are unsuccessful. We are in new uncharted territory and it’s going to get worse as new variants will emerge.
[“Flatten the infection curve”? We had more cases AFTER lockdown than before. In what world is he living?!? – TMB]
4. Removing lockdown will bring about a short and long term health catastrophe
Short-term, we will see the rise of the new variants that will cost the lives of 18,000 people (based on 0.2% mortality). Probably there will be more deaths, as the hospitals will be way overwhelmed, as will happen in Israel and globally. Long-term, we don’t know the side effects of the virus, but it seems that some patients will suffer damage ranging in months or years.
[The average age of COVID-“related” deaths is over 80. Also, mortality rate for 2020 rose 0.1% from 2019. As per long term – yes, we don’t know. The report from about a month ago stated that 5% of recoveries suffered side effects for over 6 weeks. – TMB]
5. The vaccination operation was (and is) an uncanny success
It works very efficiently, and is probably responsible for keeping mortality and infection steady, instead of rising. It takes a few weeks to kick in, but after the second batch there is 92% resistance. It’s highly impressive, considering that most people vaccinated are old and have less functioning immune systems to begin with. Unfortunately…
[Actually numbers are higher in Israel. For now. – TMB]
6. The virus mutates faster than we thought and hoped
We can name the British, South African, Brazilian, Californian and that is only the beginning. Some are susceptible to the vaccine, but the SA one is partially immune (protection rate of 50%) to the vaccine. It means that the vaccines won’t be as effective after the SA spreads in Israel. Up till now there has only been reported cases of it, there are probably more and it’s spreading.
7. Every new infected is a potential mutant maker
We have plenty of those for the next year or two, and maybe further ahead. It will take a very long time to inoculate the world, and it’s agonisingly slow in almost all countries. Europeans are not interested in getting the vaccine. If we give COVID another year to reproduce, by the end of 2021 we will probably have a vaccine-immune COVID virus, which may also infect people who already had a different variant of it. It’s hard to avoid the scenario, as long as people keep catching COVID around the globe. When new variants will infect the inoculated, we will go into an endless loop of infections -> mutations -> infections.
[That article suggested it as an option. It is not a clear cut, just an assumption. – TMB]
8. The Asians have the most successful approach to handling COVID
Japan had citizens keeping distance and wore masks. China had the strictest lockdowns. Singapore is monitoring cell phones of quarantined people. You break quarantine – pay up 10K Singapore dollars [That’s about 7,500 USD – TMB] and/or jail for 6 months. You break it twice, go to jail and pay a fine of SG$50K. New Zealand started March 2020 with 7 weeks of lockdown and ended it when they could not find any cases. Afterwards they cleverly closed their borders.
9. The difference between those countries and Israel is huge
In those countries, there is no debate on mask mandates, people keeping their distance from each other, and if you need quarantine – you stay quarantined. If you break quarantine – you are ostracised. Citizens don’t lie to health investigators who try to find out who they were in contact with. There is no discrimination: if there is lockdown, it applies to everyone, and not just for the “suckers”. Those conditions are violated in Israel repeatedly – and we all pay the price in human life and decimation of economy.
[Yes. Israelis “break” lockdown. See my RTFM post. – TMB]
10. Israel will have a hard time enduring another lockdown like the previous ones
Emphasis on “the previous ones” (important as you’ll see). Social coherence has never been so low, with total distrust for politicians and between sectors. Ultra-Orthodox types don’t want to (and can’t) lock down schools and stay with an average of 7 kids at home. Education in general is not functioning to say the least, and at least one parent has to “work from home” while keeping an eye on the kids. The economy is going down the drain. Everyone agrees on one thing – it can’t go on like this.
[Also – Israel is about to go through its fourth election in 2 years – TMB]
What It All Means
So far this is all known. Sorry for the pessimistic tone, but I tried to describe it as is, with eyes wide open and connecting all the evidence we have today.
Putting it all together, it means that the virus will be part of our lives. If we hoped it will become a flu-like illness, the new variants disprove our hopes. If it further mutates, we will have to be inoculated – each time for the new ones – about once a year. And if the vaccine-immune variant shows up, there will be further lockdown, before we go into another vaccine operation.
Therefore, there is no point thinking about any kind of post-COVID reality, we have to talk about how to live with it. We may hope things change in 2-3 years’ time, when most of the world will be inoculated, so new variants creation will slow down. At least for the next two years, we should operate under the assumption that the virus is here to stay – and it may become deadlier or more infectious.
The First Extreme – #Lockdown4EVA!
I divide the solutions into two extreme lanes and one middle.
The first lane is conceptually simple yet impossible to implement: Harsher continuous lockdown, with uncompromising enforcement, until we are down to single-digit patients, or zero. The only way to do it is to harness the economy and government spending for it. Unemployed should get the allowance to live and sustain their families, the Ultra-Orthodox must close down their schools completely, elderly people will be quarantined and get everything delivered ro their doorstep.
This should go on for an additional month or two. We don’t stop the lockdown, because we don’t want to waste the achievements.
[What achievements?!? Infection rates and mortality is up. People lost trust, as he stated before. – TMB]
Insane? Definitely. But we don’t live in normal times, and extreme measures can prevent the next lockdowns. We purify the country from COVID – any variant – and then close the borders, and have anyone coming in doing a COVID test and quarantine for two weeks. The policy of border closure remains as long as the virus spreads globally.
If we don’t cut corners, we can end up where China and New Zealand are now, and can have public events in 3 months’ time.
It’s an extreme solution and probably the most effective one – and there is no certainty that Israel can bear it.
[Sounds good, however- China is hiding the stats. Also, good luck doing it right before elections. That’s political suicide. On top of that – if it didn’t work for China, which is way authoritarian than Israel, how will it work here? – TMB]
The Second Extreme – Get Back to Work
The second extreme solution is to open up. People go back to work, make money and move the economy.
Meantime, we keep up the vaccine operation in high gear, to stop the spread of new variants. If the SA variant is stopped, there is a good chance to lower the spread of cases. If it proves to be partially resilient to Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, it’s going to be a while till the whole thing blows over. In any case, hospital will be swamped, and we will need to open temporary (i.e. field) hospitals and recruit medical teams to man the junior positions which do not need extensive medical know-how.
Hopefully both the British variant as well as the SA one will be halted by the vaccine in a few weeks, before… how many dead? Unclear. What is the price on a man’s life to the market, his family, the national moral?
Those questions should be answered wisely by ethical and economic experts, for the government to accept or ignore. One may hope that the past months vaccination operation will show results in a month time, causing the number of newly hospitalised patients to rapidly decline.
During that time, to stop new variants from entering Israel, we will need to implement a strict border lockdown like the one presented in the former solution. If we don’t – the next immune virus debuting in the international arena, will make its appearance in Israel shortly.
This is a more feasible solution than the first. It will also cost a few thousand lives, or maybe more, but as long as we keep our borders locked, and hopefully the SA variant will be susceptible to the vaccine, it may work… eventually.
[Actually, it sounds like a good idea, apart from the field hospitals. Israel has a great health infrastructure and is set for war. So some of what he suggested is in place. The costing life thing – highly doubt it, as cases are of “Died WITH COVID” more than “Died FROM COVID”. Also, remember that mortality has risen 0.1% annually, and most of the deaths happened during lockdown. I’ll take my chances in this scenario]
The Solomonic Solution
This brings us to the third option: somewhere in the middle. The country won’t be totally open, but would do so excruciatingly slowly. Schools will be first, and a couple of weeks after businesses. Movie halls, theatres and public events will wait at least 2-3 months.
If we continue the vaccine operation in a fast pace, the infection rate won’t rise to intolerable levels. At the same time, hospitals will need to be empowered, and plans for field hospitals to be prepared and also to be ready for the massive load expected.
That solution isn’t satisfying anyone. It is possible that once we ease the lockdown, infection rate will jump sky high – and leadership will have to hit the brakes. The public will be outraged, and officials will have to be real leaders, and explain the long term strategy and the reason to sacrifice – for a better future. Or we will keep easing restrictions, which will bring us to the second solution. Maybe it isn’t a bad idea, if we understand what we are getting into, and realise the cost society will pay.
If I need to put money on it, I’d say this is what the government will do, maybe it is the only viable solution. We are no China, Singapore or New Zealand. We live here – and have to play the hand we were dealt. That statement is valid for both the public, and its representatives.
[I’m in on the bet. Most of the time, our leaders have not shown “leadership”, but that is a global phenomenon. – TMB]
Note that all solutions require border strict lockdown policy. I recommend the state a few other measures to take, whichever solution we may choose. Those include:
- Establishing a local vaccine production: mRNA are cheap to produce, but the vectors need to also be mass produced (the polymers surrounding the mRNA) as well as the sterile bottles. Such a factory can produce quickly any new proven vaccine.
[Sounds interesting, but may not be economically feasible. Those fixed cost are sky-high, and there is a reason you don’t see a lot of nations doing it – TMB]
- Enlisting junior medical staff: Every hospital needs workers with limited or no medical skills. For example, translators, orderly and so on. Those can be recruited from the public, preference to be given to vaccinated persons.
- Sequencing, Sequencing and Sequencing: We have to know which variant has infected which patient. That way we will have a clear picture of the spread, and the ability to follow the patterns.
- Develop AI to forecast, follow up and treat the patient: Are we the Startup Nation or what? This is the time to encourage entrepreneurs to develop algorithms and sensors to reduce the load on the medical teams by constantly monitoring the patients.
[True that. This has a strong business case, and I have noticed some activities in the area – TMB]
- Legal action against prime spreaders of online conspiracy theories: People that have taken it upon themselves, as a profession, to spread anti-vaccine conspiracy theories, should find themselves in (an online) court, with punishments such as those in Singapore. That will prevent the proliferation of fake information risking public health. I don’t mean those who share conspiracy theories, but those who head the formal and non-formal organisations spreading false information.
[So it is OK to suspend freedom of speech? What if one of those theories has a public medical paper backing it? Who shall determine? Classic Leftist attempt to silence opposing minds and suppress opposing views. I suggest that the people can think for themselves (even though sometimes it won’t happen). – TMB]
- Enabling advance intelligence on virus global spread: It’s inconceivable that the Prime Minister complains about being unaware of the British variant. We are now experiencing the implications. We need someone to oversee what is going on in the world, identify new species and start the effort to figure out their properties and develop vaccine. Such an organisation is crucial in case of attribute changes (such as what happens if carriers are still infectious after 2 weeks, or existing tests cannot identify a new strain).
[Seriously? This is the job of the Health Ministry coupled with the National Security Advisory Board. This is part of what they are doing. Also –Israel to develop vaccine fast? On what world is he living? We are still in stage 2. – TMB]
Conclusion – For the Greater Good
There is much more work ahead of us. It is not the end of the world, but we as individuals and public must gather our strength and work for the greater good – eliminating the virus. We should support the government and parliament when they decide on policy suited for the situation, and realize that we will suffer somewhat (or plenty) before the happy ending.
It is possible – It is up to us and the standards we hold our representatives.
Good luck to us all.
The Didactic Mind
As promised above, here are some of my own conclusions based on the material presented.
- COVID-19 is here to stay. Pretending otherwise is ridiculous and foolish. We simply have to find ways to move ahead with our lives.
- The WuFlu is nowhere near as dangerous as everyone thinks it is. It IS dangerous, certainly – much more so than just a regular flu. But it is only really dangerous to particular demographics, age groups, and segments of the population. None of this is an excuse to shut down the entire economy and destroy whole societies.
- Vaccines are, and will be, of limited effectiveness. Humanity needed over 200 years after the introduction of a smallpox vaccine to eradicate that particular blight. Polio is STILL a problem to this very day, despite the introduction of a globally effective vaccine. Diseases take a LONG time to eradicate. The Commiepox is mutating rapidly, as it should. Our vaccines are of questionable effectiveness and utility right now. They will require constant development and refinement.
- Better solutions than vaccines already exist. We KNOW that ivermectin is an effective prophylactic against General Tso’s Chicken Pox. We have pretty good evidence that Vitamin C, Vitamin D, selenium, zinc, and Vitamin K supplementation are helpful in fighting both the transmission and the ravages of the disease. The much-maligned hydroxychloroquine sulfate is probably an effective and cheap treatment for sick patients. The bottom line is that we DO NOT need to shut down our societies.
- Continued lockdowns ARE NOT AN OPTION. Any academic who says otherwise has his head shoved six feet up a well-digger’s ass. People around the world have already given up almost all of their freedoms in the name of fighting a disease with a very low overall mortality rate. Enough is enough. Suspensions of civil liberties must stop. The right to work, worship, and live free must be reestablished. And unfortunately, that will probably happen only by force at this point.
- The greatest casualties of the pandemic have clearly been truth and reason. Dr. Tzezana and others like him are clearly High Priests of Scientism. They believe in the Scientistric Dogma. The fact is that scientists do not have all of the answers. In fact, most of them have no understanding of weighing costs against benefits. We listen to them unquestioningly – and we are idiots for doing so.
- Appeals to “The Greater Good” only work in societies made up of compliant sheep. That describes most East Asian societies pretty well. Lockdowns really only work in high-trust, high-compliance societies. Singapore and Japan are two such societies. China’s numbers cannot be trusted – and they are a LOW-trust society. Israel is NOT a high-trust society, as Dawn himself will tell you. The USA categorically is not a high-trust society and hasn’t been for decades.
- Do everything you can to stay free. Both Dawn and I have given you plenty of advice about how to do this- start here if you don’t understand how to use existing lockdown laws in your own favour. No matter what globalists like Dr. Tzezana propose, stay one step ahead of them, at minimum – and stay free.