Funny you should mention that. My original draft of this post had a whole lengthy section about how the fall of the American empire paralleled that of the Roman Empire before it, and how the Roman Republic became the Empire, and how the latter came unglued because of monetary debasement and entitlements.

But I deleted it all out because, well, ain't nobody got time for all that. My posts tend to be quite long-winded as it is.

I seriously doubt that is feasible. The US Treasury's notes, bills, and bonds are the cornerstone of the entire world's derivatives and credit markets. If they default, then those markets go completely unscrewed. That will not merely cripple or kill the economies of other nations – it will blow up the entire American economy too.

An American sovereign default is inevitable, one way or another, but a default now would, among other things, make financing Social Security, Medicare, and all of the other entitlement programs impossible.

Even the most ardent nationalist would have a hard time squaring the idea of inflicting severe suffering on older Americans with the need to give the rest of the world the middle finger.

I have heard many of the same horror stories about how the Chinese simply sweep their massive debt problems under the rug. They have done it repeatedly over the last 20 years, in fact. Every time there has been a downswing in their property or credit markets, the central government steps in and either takes over or bails out the companies in question. A staggering amount of the world's non-performing loans are concentrated in China and India. In China's case, they have a serious issue with an aging population and a severe population imbalance.

I would say that the chances are decent that if the USA goes, China goes with it – especially in the current era of trade wars. But I think that it is more likely that the USA will implode first – followed within a few years by China, which is making a lot of the same imperialist missteps that America did.

The amount of crap Trump is throwing at the international community and the way he is pushing pro-Americanism, If he chooses to default, will the majority of the American public really care that China and Germany are screaming?

I defer to your expertise on this but what about China? I live around the region and the horror stories I hear about what's going on in China really worries me.
If the U.S. is stupidly managed; the chicoms are clueless tweekers with lighters in a meth lab. What if we had a perfect storm where both collapse simultaneously?
From your post and what I've picked up reading, listening and analyzing (rather informally) I'm now thinking that both will implode at pretty much at the same time.
So what's your take on a simulatenous implosion?

xavier