Comments on: How an Alpha handles an interview

By: Dire Badger

Dire Badger — Mon, 19 Sep 2016 06:08:14 +0000

I am waiting eagerly ten more days for the debate on the 28th. Assuming Hillary isn't actually dead, it should be a riot to hear whatever excuses they come up with for her unwillingness to go head-to-head with her master.

By: Tom Kratman

Tom Kratman — Sun, 18 Sep 2016 19:19:05 +0000

I have a somewhat different, and maybe even useful, methodology. Step 1 is to take the ten or so recent ones from realclearpolitics, then toss the RV polls. Step 2 is to tally up the size of all the poll survey. Step 3 is to weight each of the polls by their percentage against the total number surveyed. That, on a spreadsheet, turns into an effective plus or minus. Don't know if this will format, but:

source number clinton+ weight
LA Times 2499 -7 0.363 -2.540371769
Quinip 960 5 0.139 0.697066512
IBD/TP 0.000 0
Reuters 1127 1 0.164 0.163665408
fox 867 -1 0.126 -0.125907639
CBS 1433 2 0.208 0.416206796
CNN 0.000 0
ABCWAPO 0.000 0
6886 1.000 -1.805547488

By: Didact

Didact — Sun, 18 Sep 2016 18:00:38 +0000

In reply to Tom Kratman. Going by the latest RCP 4-way average, the Bitch is roughly 1pt ahead, but I don't consider that to be statistically significant. As you say, sir, the polling is basically right within the margin of error. I'm not convinced that these polls are necessarily a good measure of performance, though. As Mike Cernovich pointed out, there is a huge gap for the Hilldebeast's supporters in terms of what they say they will do, and what they actually will do.

By: Tom Kratman

Tom Kratman — Sun, 18 Sep 2016 16:16:44 +0000

No, I think he's not a point behind; he's a point ahead and a half a point ahead in the four-way polls. That's all still within margin of error, of course.