Yes, it's a rather good book in a lot of ways, but that conceit about America being able to pull through what is coming just rings hollow to me.

Goldman's arguments about Iran surprised me because I didn't realise how low Iran's current birth rate really is. The really interesting part is actually the fact that the birth rate went from 6-8 children per woman, down to 1-2, in the space of a single generation. That's a decline that is virtually unheard of in human history. And it's interesting to see this story being repeated across the Muslim world; one of Goldman's ancillary arguments concerns the failure of Islam to deal with modernity, mostly because a tribalist ideology born in 7th Century Arabia simply doesn't have the tools needed to handle modern scientific progress.

The idea of eternal, straight-line progress is a conceit of our modern age, found nowhere in nature, and in my opinion to think that any people or nation can be free of the civilisational cycle is pretty much hubris. As they saying goes, the taller they are, the harder they fall.

I'm not surprised at Goldman's claims, to be honest. Iran's birth rate is currently hovering at about 2, and education has been defined as a "right" now – resulting in a hullabaloo a couple of years back when there was an effort made to restrict women from some STEM fields, despite the fact that in the majority of cases the restriction numbers were more than the applicants. I've also heard things coming out of Saudi Arabia regarding how men and women are behaving towards each other, so…yeah. It seems the rot is global.